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COCHISE COLLEGE Center for Economic Research

COCHISE COLLEGE Center for Economic Research. Economic Review & Outlook Bisbee, Arizona. National Economy – Productivity . Real GDP Growth 2005: 3.1% 2006: 2.9% 2007: 1 st Qtr: 0.6% 2 nd Qtr: 3.8% 3 rd Qtr: 4.9%. National vs. State Productivity. Arizona’s GDP grew by 6.8% in 2006

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COCHISE COLLEGE Center for Economic Research

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  1. COCHISE COLLEGECenter for Economic Research Economic Review & Outlook Bisbee, Arizona

  2. National Economy – Productivity Real GDP Growth 2005: 3.1% 2006: 2.9% 2007: 1st Qtr: 0.6% 2nd Qtr: 3.8% 3rd Qtr: 4.9%

  3. National vs. State Productivity • Arizona’s GDP grew by 6.8% in 2006 • 3rd fastest growing state (economically) in the nation

  4. National Economy - Inflation • Consumer Price Index • 2005: Up 3.4% • 2006: Up 3.2% • 2007: Up 2.6% (Jan-Oct) • Energy prices up 12.3% (SAAR) in first 10 months of 2007 • Petroleum-based energy up 20.6%

  5. National Economy – Interest Rates • Federal Funds Rate • Cut by 75 basis points since September • Currently 4.5%, down from 5.25% • Mortgage Rates • 2005: 5.87% • 2006: 6.58% • 2007 (Jan-Oct): 6.48% • Oct 2007: 6.5%

  6. The Local Economy

  7. Population • Bisbee • 2006 Population: 6,355 • Down 3.3% from 2005 • Up 4.4% since 2000 • Average 0.7% per year since 2000 • Cochise County • 2006 Population: 135,150 • Up 2.5% from 2005 • Up 14.8% since 2000 • Average 2.3% per year since 2000

  8. Population Projections In 2011 Bisbee: 6,712 (Avg. 1.1% per year) Cochise County: 152,107 (Avg. 2.3% per year)

  9. Employment

  10. Unemployment Rate 2006 • U.S.: 4.6% • Arizona: 4.1% • Cochise County: 4.5% • Bisbee: 5.0% Jan-Oct 2007 • U.S.: 4.6% • Arizona: 3.7% • Cochise County: 4.1% • Bisbee: 4.6%

  11. Bisbee Labor Force and Jobs, 2002-2007

  12. Bisbee’s Top 10 Employers • Cochise County (830) • Copper Queen Community Hospital (166) • Bisbee Unified School District (155) • City of Bisbee (112) • Catholic Community Services (104) • Bisbee Hospitality Group (65) • Copper Queen Hotel (61) • Safeway (46) • Turquoise Valley Golf, Restaurant & RV (38) • SEABHS (24)

  13. Cochise County Job Growth: October Comparisons

  14. Average Annual Wage, 2006

  15. Average Hourly Wage, 2006

  16. Employment Outlook • Continued slowing of job growth • Rising unemployment • More job losses in financial activities and construction countywide

  17. Local Sales

  18. Bisbee Sales Tax Revenue, FY 06-07

  19. Bisbee Retail Sales • Jan-Sep 2007 • $24.5 million • Up 8.5% • Inflation-adjusted growth of 6.1% • Strong, double-digit growth in the summer months (Jun-Aug) • Down 0.5% in Sep

  20. Bisbee Restaurant & Bar • Jan-Sep 2007 • $5.5 million • Down 0.5% • Inflation-adjusted growth of -2.9% • Sales down each month from Jun 07 through Sep 07 • Down 8.7% in Sep

  21. Bisbee Accommodation • Jan-Sep 2007 • $1.7 million • Up 38.2% • Inflation-adjusted growth of 35.8% • Sales up every month of 2007 except Aug (-7.6%) • Strongest growth in Jun (141%) • Up 21.4% in Sep

  22. Sales Outlook • Slowing of retail sales • Interest rate cuts in late 2007 may help in the short-run • Leveling off of accommodation • Continued slowdown of restaurant & bar sales

  23. Housing & Real Estate

  24. Cochise County New SFR Construction • Jan-Jun 2007: Permits were down 56.7% (from 619 to 268) • Source: Bright Future Business Consulting, Tucson, AZ

  25. Bisbee New SFR Construction • 2006: 6 permits • Down from 10 in 2005 • Jan-Oct 2007: 6 permits • Several projects in various stages

  26. MLS Home Sales, Jan-Nov 07 • Cochise County • Volume: 1,284 • Down 9.2% • Median price: $192,300 • Up 1.2% • Price per sq. ft.: $115.13 • Down 3.7% • Sale price/asking price: 96.1% • Down from 97.1% • DOM: 134 • Up from 113 • Current Inventory: 1,123 • 9 ½ -month supply • Bisbee • Volume: 94 • Down 16.1% • Median price: $142,250 • Up 12.2% • Price per sq. ft.: $115.79 • Down 1.8% • Sale price/asking price: 94.3% • Down from 95% • DOM: 150 • Up from 123 • Current Inventory: 136 • 15-month supply

  27. Bisbee Housing Affordability Index

  28. Outlook • Home sales will continue to slow • Stabilization of prices • Several current and planned projects may impact recent trends

  29. Happy Holidays! Happy December

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