Presidential Elections v. Congressional Elections

1. Presidential Elections v. Congressional Elections • Presidential races tend to be much more competitive than House races—term limits, narrower margins, more voters in Pres. elections • 90% of all House incumbents are reelected with most receiving 60% of the vote or more—elections have low turnout too (you have to beat party radicals) • Incumbents take advantage of all “good things” they provide to their districts—gov’t programs (John Dingell V.A. Hospital in Detroit) • President doesn’t enjoy this luxury; in fact, their party may lose Congressional seats • Coattails doubtful • Result: Congressional elections independent of Presidential ones

2. Running for President • 1st: Get Mentioned. David Broder’s “Great Mentioner,” self-promotion, speeches • Set aside a lot of time to run (4 yrs+) • Raise money, set up organization (PAC can give you $5000, individuals $1000, and you must raise $5000 in $250 or smaller contributions in 20 states to be eligible for federal matching primary funds) • Decide on tone (nice or mudslinger), theme (“Moving America Forward” or “Stronger at home, respected abroad”) • Tone can be Negative (Bush 41) or Positive (John Edwards) • Incumbents run on record; challengers attack • Also key: timing, which voters to target • Mobilize volunteers—help you get name on ballot • Do well in caucuses/primaries**

3. Television/Debates/Direct Mail • TV spending a major part of campaign expenses • Includes “visuals,” cleverly-timed shots of candidates shaking hands, visiting a fire, or reviewing the military, etc… • Paid commercials are much more influential than election news coverage • Debates: Can usually only hurt incumbent/favorite; exception Reagan • Risks “slip of the tongue;” tend to speak carefully and use hackneyed phrases over and over • “The Donors List” can be the key to victory!

4. 4 Big $$$$$$ Questions • Where does the money come from? • What rules govern how it is raised and spent? • What has been the effect of campaign finance reform? • What does campaign spending buy?

5. Sources of Campaign Money • Congress: all from private • States: all private • President: private/federal government matching • Matching funds on all contributions $250 or less, plus lump sums for conventions • If you accept funds, spending limits apply • Congressional candidates (surprise) get most money from individual donors • Most money comes in small amounts from donors because of matching fund requirement

6. Campaign Finance Rules: Pre-2002 (pre-BCRA) • Watergate scandal still plagues process • 1974 Federal Election Campaign Law sets up FEC • Must report every contribution of $100 • May not accept more than $1000 per election from an individual per election • Individuals limited to $25,000/yr. total contributions; no limit on independent advertising • No foreign contributions or Union contributions (but they may form PACs) • PACs may give $5000/election/cycle to individual candidates; $15,000 to a national party, must have 50 voluntary members and donate to 5 candidates • Soft money is unlimited; Democrats like to have “get out the vote” fundraisers

7. Campaign Finance Reform • PACs have exploded since 1974 • Even more developed during Dem administrations • Further weakened parties • Provide advantages to wealthy challengers • Give advantages to candidates with strong ideological appeal; direct mail • Reforms penalize late-bloomers

8. The McCain-Feingold Campaign Finance Reform Act (aka “BCRA”) • Soft money contributions to parties from corporations banned • No $ from people under 18 • Issue Advocacy ads banned by non-527 organizations: Corporations, unions, trade associations, and nonprofits cannot use their own money and identify candidates by name 30 days before primary or 60 days before general election • 527’s have played dirty so far • Individuals can now give $2000/candidate/election, and total limits are higher. $95,000 maximum • “Millionaire’s Amendment” allows those facing wealthy, self-financed opposition to raise more • Challenged in court; upheld in McConnell v. FEC

9. What does Campaigning Buy? • Money makes little difference in Prez elections, big difference in Congressional elections • Name recognition is expensive • Jon Corzine, NJ: Bought a Senate seat for $69 Million

10. What Decides the Election? • Party Identification: More identify as Democrats, Republicans more loyal and vote more often • Economic Issues—voters have better knowledge about these issues • Prospective Voting—look ahead to promises..usually political junkies • Retrospective Voting—punish or reward the incumbent • THESE DECIDE ELECTIONS. Some people in 1968 didn’t vote for Nixon, but against Humphrey

11. Campaigning makes the Difference: 3 Ways • Reawakens party loyalties (convention worth about six points) • Gives voters a chance to watch how the candidates handle pressure • Allows voters to judge character and core values • Negative ads often have strong appeal (Willie Horton) • In class, digital files are included to emphasize these points during past Presidential campaigns

12. Building a Winning Coalition • Democrats have lost their stranglehold on Catholics, southerners, and union members • Republicans more stable; farmers can bolt though—and did in 1948 and 1964. • Elderly poor votes Republican • Must be constructed for each election

13. Party Realignments • Occurs when a new issue of utmost importance cuts across existing party divisions and replaces old ID issues • #1: 1800: 1st peaceful transfer of power • #2: 1828: Jackson victory • #3: 1860: 4 way race, Dems split, Lincoln wins • #4: 1896: Populist attempt to hijack system Republicans—urban interests, hard money, protective tariffs, Democrats for farmers, rural areas • #5: 1932: FDR’s New Deal; big government, blacks switch alliances

14. Ballots • Voting by voice used to be the rule • Australian Ballot (18561900): • Printed at public expense • Lists names of candidates • Only given out at polls • Voted in secret • Original form: Office-Group ballot (lists candidates for each office grouped together, a.k.a. Massachusetts Ballot). Encourages party decline and split ticket voting. • Indiana ballot (or party-column ballot) makes it easy to straight-ticket vote

15. Kinds of Campaign Issues • Position issues—abortion, National Health Care. Issues where reasonable people can disagree. • Valence Issues —economy, for example. We don’t have one party advocating a good economy, and other calling for bad times. Avoiding nuclear war can also be a valence issue (Goldwater 1964) • TV spots are short—valence issues essential

16. Do Elections Have Real Results? • In Parliamentary systems, absolutely • In the US, rarely..realigning elections do tend to have an impact, but generally most election promises are not fulfilled • Most substantial changes tend to stay, however…social security, Head Start, elimination of affirmative action

17. Getting Nominated • Self-Announcement • By Petition (local elec. Like school board) • Caucus: A group of like-minded persons who meet to select the candidates they will support in the upcoming election • Convention • Direct Primary (now supersedes others): • Can be CLOSED, OPEN, or BLANKET • Closed primary: only registered party members may vote • Open primary: all voters may vote, but may not split ticket (Michigan) • Blanket: now illegal, vote in both primaries • Some states require runoff primary

18. Why Closed Primaries? • Prevents one party from “raiding” the other’s primary • Makes candidates more responsive to their party • Opponents claim they jeopardize secrecy and tend to exclude independents

19. Iowa Caucuses • Held in February of Presidential election yr • Candidates must do well or money will dry up • Leader must win; 2nd-3rd can improve status markedly by winning • Winners tend to be ideologically extreme • Eventual winners often regret statements made in Iowa/NH! • Southern states counter with “Super Tuesday” in March

20. Federal Election Regulations • Myth: Feds run elections • Truth: Elections are state-run, even for Federal offices • Congress may fix time and place of elections • Debates: set up by nonpartisan “Commission on Presidential Debates” • Debates usually only help challenger. (Once people realized Reagan was reasonable, he won….ditto for Bush 43 on Foreign Policy) • PACs bound by certain limitations— • (1) At least 50 voluntary members • (2) Give to at least 5 federal candidates • (3) Limited to giving $5,000 per election per candidate, or more than $15,000 per year to any political party

21. The Coattail Effect • Strong Presidential candidates can sway voters to vote for their party. • Best example: Reagan (1984) brought in a Republican Senate—led to confirmations of Scalia and Rehnquist as CJ • Reverse coattail is possible too! Examples include McGovern (1972), Carter (1980)

22. Effects of Presidential Primaries (Old AP question) • Longer campaigns/CANDIDATE CENTERED—see WAV • Increased cost • Early fun raising essential for momentum • Media coverage is horserace type • Iowa/NH crucial • Ticket balancing has changed: VP now chosen for ideological balance rather than geographical • New breed of prof. consultants • Running for election is a full-time job • Primaries moved to earlier dates • Conventions haven’t been contentious since 1976 • MORE EXTREMIST CANDIDATES • Process more representative

23. Chapter 10 Learning Objectives • After reading and reviewing the material in this chapter, the student should be able to do each of the following: • 1. Demonstrate the differences between the party-oriented campaigns of the nineteenth century and the candidate-oriented ones of today, contrasting the major elements of successful campaigns. • 2. Discuss how important campaign funding is to election outcomes, what the major sources of such funding are under current laws and how successful reform legislation has been in removing improper monetary influences from United States elections. • 3. Outline the processes for electing presidents and for electing members of Congress. • 4. Describe what the Democrats and Republicans each must do to put together a successful national coalition to win an election. • 5. Outline the major arguments on either side of the question of whether elections do or do not result in major changes in public policy in the United States.