Presidential Elections

1. Presidential Elections The Parties The campaigns Electing the president The electoral college Bush’s victories: why and what it means The video

2. The Parties • Not originally planned • A desire to avoid factions • Party development • The federalists and anti-federalists • Anti-federalists believed in states’ rights and eventually the Democrats took on this stance. • The Whigs were the party of the aristocracy and a strong central government. • Their interest was a stable government and one which aided economic development through active participation.

3. The Parties and the Irony • The Republican party moved from a position of strong central government to one of “government is best which governs least” and the Democrats have moved from a states’ rights party to the defender of a strong central government and a “strong” welfare system. • The Democrats “lost” the South when they supported civil rights for blacks.

4. The Republican Party • Established in 1856 as a third party behind the Democrats and Whigs • Replaced the Whigs by the election of 1860 which Lincoln won. • The main platform was anti-slavery and preserving the union and thus was the party of a strong central government. • The progressive wing • Teddy Roosevelt—anti-trust suits, national parks, and investigating business practices. Januray

5. Republican Party • Political landscape—Høyre to Fremskrittsparti • Present Platform • Tax reduction (70% of which goes to the upper 20%) • Defense build-up • Pro-business legislation—deregulation of government restrictions • Unilateralism and pre-emptive strikes • Spreading democracy • Roll back environmental legislation • Project for the New American Century

6. The Republican Party • Constituency • Geographically • The south (ever since the Democrats passed civil rights legislation in the 1960’s) • The mid-west • The suburbs • Sociologically • Middle, upper-middle and upper classes • Business people • Evangelicals

7. The Democrats • Political landscape—Høyre/Venstre • The Party of Jefferson and Jackson • Dominated politics until Lincoln • The party of the people vs. the Whigs • Pressured for the Bill of Rights • Supported the rise of the unions • Wilson, FDR, Kennedy & Clinton

8. The Democrats • Present Platform • The third way • Balance the needs of business and the rights of the people. Shares some economic concerns with Republicans, but are more concerned about the working class, environment, diplomacy and minorities. • Progressive tendencies • FDR—social welfare • Kennedy/Johnson—civil rights • Carter—equal rights

9. The Democrats • Constituency • Geographically • The coasts, New England and the industrial mid-west (Pennsylvania, Ohio, Illinois, Michigan, Wisconsin, & Minnesota) • Urban areas • Sociologically/politically • The working class • Middle-class • Minorities • Jews • Intellectuals • Environmentalists

10. Presidential Elections • The President and Congress are elected separately • The nature of Washington politics • Gridlock • Weak party structure, regional differences and horse trading • Lobbying and external influence • Can lead to corruption as big money is at stake

11. Flow Chart • Steps In Selecting A President • Candidate Declares Intention to Run for Office • Candidates Campaign for Delegates in State Primaries • Primary Elections, Caucases, and Conventions are Held in the States • National Party Conventions Choose Nominees for President and Vice-president • Voters Choose Presidential Electors in each State in the November General Election • Electoral College Casts Its Votes for President in January • The President and Vice-president are Inaugurated on January 20

12. The Campaign • Positioning • Each potential candidate must find financial backing and create national recognition • The process starts 2-3 years before the election • Internet campaign funding • Avoids special interest funding • Obama has made a big deal about this and runs as an outsider • Announcing candidacy—1 year in advance

13. The Campaign • The primaries • A democratic idea gone amok? • Meet the people, press the flesh • Iowa & New Hampshire • Creating momentum, getting financial support • Winning delegates • The national conventions— August & September • A foregone conclusion, but who is the V.P. candidate? • National exposure—watch Obama’s jump in the polls

14. The General Election Campaign • From Labor Day to November • Focuses on swing states • The debates • Body language and appearance are important • Confidence & Image • Performing above expectations • Meet the press • Newspaper endorsements

15. The Cost • The vicious cycle • Money to buy time to get donations to buy time on TV • The cost: $1.2 billion • You can’t win without money • The best president money can buy • Campaign contributions are investments • Recent lobbying scandals—Jack Abramoff • Dependence on campaign funding corrupts

16. The Media’s Role • Image vs. content: Total makeover • Looking presidential • The debates and “Meet the Press” • The character issue • The person not the platform • A 1 ½ party system • The vicious cycle and media control • What is projected: Image • Sound bites: The average ad is 10 second • Cost and corruption

17. The Candidates’ Image • In 2004, an questionnaire showed that only 10% of the voters voted on the basis of issues. • The winning image: personal qualities such as honest, simple, straight-talking, God fearing, determined, decisive, likeable • This leads to personal attacks and draws the focus away from issues.

18. WhenThingsGetTough, theCandidatesGetDirty • Attack ads • McCain attacked Obama’s education policy focusing on what he called ”sex education for kindergarten pupils.” • McCain tried to pain Obama as a ”vacuous celebrity” like Britney Spires and Paris Hilton • Obama linked McCain to lost jobs at DHL • The candidates must respond or look like wooses, but the attacks turn off the public.

19. The national election • 1st Tuesday after the 1st Monday in Nov. • The popular vote • The Electoral College vote • Electoral College as a compromise between the larger and small states • 538 votes—each state’s # = representatives in Congress • If one wins the 11 most populated states one can lose the rest.

20. The National Election • The Electoral College and the Campaign • Campaigning is limited to the big and/or the swing states which limits contact • Election day • Low voter turnout—approx. 50% • Difficulty in registration, lack of interest • 2008 an exception, near 70% • Weather—the Republicans hope for bad weather in the industrial mid-west states and the coasts

21. Electoral College Votes 2008 Note the two parties’ regions and changes

22. Note the shift from 1960-2004

23. Trends • The South has gone Republican • A result of the Democrats’ campaign for civil rights • Before the Civil Rights Acts, the South had virtual apartheid • When President Johnson, a Texan, sign the acts he stated that he was signing away the South to the Republicans • Movement to the Sunbelt and increased influence of these states • Movement among Hispanics who were Democrats but showed movement to the Republicans on the basis of moral issues—anti-gay, anti-abortion

24. A PossibleShift Back for theDemocrats • The Southern states may not be as solid Republican as they have been since 1965. • Afro-American population in the South • Louisiana–35% (9 Electoral College votes) • Mississippi—39% (6 Electoral College votes) • Alabama—28% (9 Electoral College votes) • Georgia—32% (15 Electoral College votes) • South Carolina—30% (8 Electoral College votes) • 92% of Afro-American voters vote for the Democrats

25. Recent Scandals • Abramoff: American politics at its dirtiest • Lobbying and corruption—where does information stop and bribery begin? • Abramoff has pleaded guilty to influence peddling (arranging meeting with influential politicians for a fee) and shows up on pictures at the Oval Office with guess who and his clients. • He has been indicted for embezzlement and bribery (it is estimated that he influenced 60 members of Congress illegally). • He helped Tyco avoid off shore taxes bragging that he “had good relations with member of Congress.”

26. Recent Scandals • Election fraud • There are 3000 counties in the US with its own election board and election official are partisan • In both Florida and Ohio, the Secretary of State (responsible for the election) was also the campaign manager for Bush • The problem of accurate vote counting has not be remedied in Ohio

27. Recent Scandals cont. • The two largest provider of voting machines donate large amounts to the Republican party • “Let them vote, because we are doing the counting.”—a statement made by the president of one of the companies one year before the 2004 election • Why was there a discrepancy between the exit polls and the final count in Ohio?

28. Whatthe New President Inherited • Iraq war costs--$3 trillion plus Afghanistan • National Debt— $11 trillion • 2009 budget deficit--$482 billion (est) • A slowing economy with negative GDP growth • Rising unemployment—5%, now 10% • Rising health care costs—47 million Americans have no health insurance • Discresionary budget items: 38% of the budget

29. Abandoned Houses

30. AftertheHousingBubblePopped • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jmeHiFZUWtE

31. What a Difference a Day Makes • Obama’s foreign policy • A new tone • No longer black and white, we against the world thinking. • Dialogue versus confrontation • An understanding that we cannot dictate results

32. Obama and China • A new tone and new priorities • Cooperation on key issues: economy and environment • China is the major lender to the U.S. and holds £1.5 trillion in U.S. paper. • No longer an emphasis on civil rights infractions inspite of the fact that they are increasing; a more diplomatic tone

33. Obama and Russia • Russia : Has the bear awoken or is it back broken? • They want to be a player, but their economy is in shambles and they are moving towards the old authoritarian state. • Tricky issues: The rocket shield, Georgia and Ukraine in NATO. • Nuclear disarmament

34. Obama and Israel • Further expansion of the settlements and expropriation of Palestinian houses is unacceptible • The Israelis are suspicious of Obama’s intensions. • What they don’t understand is his tendency to look at both sides of the question • A two states’ solution is the only one

35. Obama and theMiddle-East • A complicated formula • Russia has good relations with Iran and thus is important for a solution • U.S. and Syria must talk, but Syria supports Hizbollah and Hamas • Syria and Israel must resolve the Golan Heights issue • Iran has strong influence in Irak.

36. Afghanistan • A mistake? • Afghanistan consists of warlord controlled areas. • It is not a unified country, but a collection of fiefdoms with conflicting interests. • The main economic source: poppies • Can the war be won and at what price?

37. Obama and Latin America • The relationship was put on hold during the Bush administration • There was a considerable move to the left • Chavez, Morales, Lula • The development of Banco del Sur could take Latin America out of the grasp of IMF • ”Venezuela is no strategic threat to the USA”—Obama, but has developed an alliance with Russia and bought Russian weapons

38. DomesticIssues • Health care reform • Environment • Education

39. Obama and Latin America • Where to start to improve Latin American relations • Cuba—lifting restrictions on visits and money transfers—done. Lifting restrictions on investments and business—do be done. • Honduras • Colombia—opening new bases?? • The School of Americas??

40. The Video • Coverage of the Republican primaries to choose the Republican candidate for the U.S. Senate • The video does not touch on the presidential campaign, but describes campaigning in general • Total make-over, image creation, the campaign trail and dirty tricks.