Identifying the Direction and Promoting Factors of Innovation toward Grand Challenges

1. The 4th International Seville Conference onFuture-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA)12 & 13 May 2011 Identifying the Direction and Promoting Factors of Innovation toward Grand Challenges Yoshiko Yokoo and Kumi Okuwada National Institute of Science and Technology Policy (NISTEP)

2. Identifying the Direction and Promoting Factors of Innovation toward Grand Challenges Background Innovation is expected to give solutions for global and national issues. • We have to cope with climate change, aging population, etc. • S&T that have potential to make innovation happen should be focused on. 1995 S&T Basic Law 1996-2000 The 1st S&T Basic Plan 1971 - 2001 The Technology Foresight 2001 • Establishment of CSTP - Top down decision making • Link between S&T policy and foresight Delphi 2001-2005 The 2nd S&T Basic Plan 2005 The 8th S&T Foresight 2006-2010 The 3rd S&T Basic Plan Multi methods Global and national changes Innovation 25 2010 The 9th S&T Foresight 2010 Integration with innovation policy Mission-oriented & interdisciplinary 2011-2015 The 4th S&T Basic Plan

3. Identifying the Direction and Promoting Factors of Innovation toward Grand Challenges Survey design Science and technology foresight for solving grand challenges • Mission-oriented approach: four grand challenges and solutions for them • Interdisciplinary discussion / diversified participants • Integrative study Global challenge and national challenge Global challenge and national challenge Global challenge and national challenge • To find a solution in grand challenges: • What are priority research areas from a strategic point of view? • What areas of science and technology should be promoted to be integrated? • What social system has to be introduced, or restructured? Global challenge and national challenge Delphi survey Solution “Integration of wisdom” toward solving the challenges Scenario writing Social system renovation International collaboration Strategic priority research for each area Basic research Regional workshop

4. Identifying the Direction and Promoting Factors of Innovation toward Grand Challenges Method: Preliminary discussion Mission/contribution of S&T • Four thematic panels discussed on contribution of S&T regarding safety, security, international cooperation, and international competitiveness. • Panels concluded 24 priority issues and importance of system thinking. • Reassurance on safety: • Transparent system • High quality of health etc. • Security: • Ensuring safety of artificial objects • Safety from environment and disasteretc. • International cooperation: • Development of untapped/un-discovered resources • International expansion of education serviceetc. • International competitiveness: • Technology transfer donation to explore future demand • Proposal of original methodologiesetc.

5. Identifying the Direction and Promoting Factors of Innovation toward Grand Challenges Method: Delphi survey Interdisciplinary approach, breaking away from established disciplines Mission-oriented approach • Discussion on: • Safety • Security • International collaboration • International competitiveness

6. Identifying the Direction and Promoting Factors of Innovation toward Grand Challenges Method: Scenario writing • Expert groups prepared scenarios mainly focusing on technological and social conditions to solve grand chalenges we are facing. • Picture of our daily life based on the results of delphi results. • Young ICT experts envisioned services using ICT in our life in the future. • Promoting factors toward the desired future • R&D priority • Human resource development • Cooperation/integration among fields/sectors • Reformation of social systems • Policy collaboration • Creation of new industry/business/employment • Public acceptance • International standpoint Picture of our life thirty years from now ＋ Delphi topics Future stories

7. Identifying the Direction and Promoting Factors of Innovation toward Grand Challenges Method: Regional workshop Discussion of the capability of local regions regarding sustainable development. • Workshops involving citizens, business people, researchers, and public officials. • Discussion of desired futures and factors conducive to their realization. Preliminary study - Literature searching • Regional workshops • Workshops at eight local regions • Discussion of desired future in the region Wrap-up workshop -Discussion of industries, services and S&Ts that have potential for desired futures Analysis

8. Identifying the Direction and Promoting Factors of Innovation toward Grand Challenges Method: Integrative study New industries and services for each region Interdisciplinary Delphi Policy implications Picture of our daily life in the future Promoting factors for the desired future S&T for solving global/national challenges Scenarios by group work Mapping Ideas from younger generation

9. Identifying the Direction and Promoting Factors of Innovation toward Grand Challenges Result: Picture of our daily life in the future Better life around 2025 based on Delphi results • A society in which various diagnostic technologies and systems are incorporated in daily life and health maintenance by individuals has started to prevail. • A society where individuals can use various types of energy selectively based on their comprehensive evaluation of value and can feel that they proactively contribute to global warming prevention and environmental preservation. • A society in the early stage of coping with the various disasters caused by environmental changes.

10. Identifying the Direction and Promoting Factors of Innovation toward Grand Challenges Result: S&T for solving global/national challenges 36 delphi areas of importance • Half of them are related to energy, environment, and resources. • Areas related to ICT and management are also emphasized.

11. Identifying the Direction and Promoting Factors of Innovation toward Grand Challenges Result: Mapping Delphi areas and group scenarios are plotted according to their similarity. Distinctive items are positioned at outer space and common items are positioned near the center. Delphi areas with especially strong focus (4 areas)  Delphi areas with strong focus (8 areas)  Delphi areas with focus (24 areas) Scenarios where S&T are expected to make great contributions

12. Identifying the Direction and Promoting Factors of Innovation toward Grand Challenges Policy implication and conclusion To implement foresight exercise for creating innovation that leads to solving global and national challenges; • Mission-oriented and interdisciplinary approach is effective to find out the direction of innovation and its promoting factors. • Broad participation and collaboration will be expected. • Discussion in terms of both technology and society, that is, system thinking, will be indispensable.