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Cars, Trucks, Planes: What will drive them in the future?

BTRE Transport Colloquium Canberra 13-14 June 2007. Cars, Trucks, Planes: What will drive them in the future?. David Lamb. Headlines: (1). Biggest increase in Australia’s emissions since 1990 is private transport Increased 29% since 1990. Headlines: (2). Public transport in crisis

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Cars, Trucks, Planes: What will drive them in the future?

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  1. BTRE Transport Colloquium Canberra 13-14 June 2007 Cars, Trucks, Planes:What will drive them in the future? David Lamb

  2. Headlines: (1) • Biggest increase in Australia’s emissions since 1990 is private transport • Increased 29% since 1990

  3. Headlines: (2) • Public transport in crisis • “Transport congestion choking Melbourne” -- The Age • “Fuel price drives commuters onto buses and trains”-- SMH • What do these problems have in common?

  4. Source http://www.tycoflowcontrol.com.au/industries/oil_&_gas__chemical

  5. Government Report :Is the World Running Out of Oil (2005)

  6. ABARE Projection to 2030 – (2005) Energy Trade Deficit >$5 Bn last year 45% Source: Abare:Australian energy: national & state projections to 2029-30

  7. Katrina: 1836 deaths $100 billion damage 30 oil platforms 9 oil refineries

  8. Oil consumption

  9. Sources of emissions - Australia 14.5% Note: USA transport emissions are 28% of total USA emissions. California 58%

  10. Greenhouse gas emissions Australian transport

  11. GHG must not be confused with Air Quality! Air quality is an issue in urban areas (particulate carbon, mostly from diesel) GHG emissions are a national/globalissue Methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) also need to be considered.

  12. N2O Nitrous oxide (N2O) is 310 times as potentas carbon dioxide Why the increase in GHG for cars? 2NO 2NO2 N2 + O2 N2 + 2O2 And there’s a second reason! Engines have improved in fuel efficiency 20% over the past 20years, However this has been offset by growth in vehicle size

  13. 37% 2003/04 Road Vehicles Australia 2002

  14. Hydrogen based transport system The Technology Progression for Australia? 30 years or even more! Hydrogen Alternative Fuels Electricity } Methanol ? Oil from coal ? Oil from gas ? Oil based transport system But must be ‘clean’ LPG Natural gas Biofuels – ethanol, biodiesel

  15. Biofuels from current agriculture Ethanol If we used all the crops (sugar, molasses, wheat, coarse grain) suitable for making ethanol and converted them to fuel it would only replace 75% of our petrol. (If we stopped exporting grain we could replace 25% of our petrol) Biodiesel If we used all the crops (canola, cottonseed and others) suitable for making diesel and converted them to fuel we could replace only 10% of our diesel usage. Conclusions: Ethanol could support E10 for most of Australia Urgent research is needed into next-generation biofuel technologies.

  16. Side effects of biofuels The Tortilla Protest – Mexico City, February 21 2007

  17. comparison of ethanol vs ULP -

  18. Sustainability - GHG emissions acrossfuel typesin a typical ‘family sedan’ Source: Tim Grant

  19. Room for improvement In suburban cycle 87% energy lost versus 13% converted to motion Aero 3% Drivetrain 6% Accessory 2% 13% Motion (aero, braking & rolling) Idle 17% Rolling 4% Engine 62% Braking 6%

  20. Automobiles are becoming increasingly electrified • There is a strong demand for more energy storage on board the vehicle. • Much research into high-tech batteries

  21. In partnership with Holden the ECOmmodore, a parallel hybrid vehicle. With aXcess Australia, a series hybrid vehicle.

  22. CSIRO’s Battery Breakthrough 60 volt battery pack 150 volt Supercapacitor

  23. The UltraBattery

  24. An All-Electric Vehicle Electric Motor Controller Charger Storage Device 240V AC

  25. EV Performance 0-30 mph: 1.35s0-60 mph: 3.07s in 117 ft0-100 mph: 6.87s0-100-0 mph 11.2s www.wrightspeed.com

  26. Finally, the Hydrogen Powered Car Electric motor Fuel Cell Hydrogen

  27. The Future? • Expect more pressure to reduce emissions • Simplest ways to reduce emissions: - • Reduce travel (particularly in cities) • Reduce vehicle size where possible • Improve traffic flows • improve fuel economy of vehicles

  28. Expect more pressure to reduce emissions • Expect more technological improvements in engines. • Hybrids save fuel (and emissions) – but mostly in the city (short journeys and stop-start driving) The easiest ways to reduce emissions are to reduce travel, reduce vehicle size, then reduce congestion.

  29. Could we achieve substantial emission reductions?

  30. Could we achieve substantial emission reductions?

  31. Could we achieve substantial emission reductions?

  32. 89% reduction in 36 years! How did we do it? • Public awareness of the problem • Government response • Determined planning • Regulations • Driving • Road management • Vehicle technology • Technology • And at CSIRO we’re working on it!

  33. Thank you for your attention

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