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THE Solar Advisor Model SAM and its usage for the solar america initiative

SAM (Solar Advisor Model) Concept. Original Vision (For DOE Multi-Year Planning by Lab analysts)Combine all solar technologies in one modeling environmentconcentrating solar power (CSP)photovoltaics (PV)solar heating (primarily solar residential hot water) [on hold currently]solar hybrid lighting [on hold currently]Model performance, costs and financing consistently across technologies for appropriate comparisons.Calculate impact of R

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THE Solar Advisor Model SAM and its usage for the solar america initiative

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    1. THE Solar Advisor Model (SAM) and its usage for the solar america initiative Development Team: Nate Blair, Craig Christensen, Mark Mehos, Steve Janzou (Consultant), Paul Gilman (Consultant), Chris Cameron (Sandia) Others: Frank Burkholder, Greg Glatzmaier, University of Wisconsin - Madison Download (FREE): http://www.nrel.gov/analysis/sam

    2. SAM (Solar Advisor Model) Concept Original Vision (For DOE Multi-Year Planning by Lab analysts) Combine all solar technologies in one modeling environment concentrating solar power (CSP) photovoltaics (PV) solar heating (primarily solar residential hot water) [on hold currently] solar hybrid lighting [on hold currently] Model performance, costs and financing consistently across technologies for appropriate comparisons. Calculate impact of R&D technology improvements on LCOE, NPV, etc. in various markets. Extensive sensitivity analysis and output/ plotting capabilities Do not reinvent the wheel (existing models when possible) Current Vision Robust simulation tool that industry will use Implementation of best performance models (Sandia PV module, NREL parabolic trough model, Sandia Inverter, 5-Parameter PV module via UW-Madison and CEC) Policy, Markets and Technology Analysis Siting Tool (especially with detailed Google-Maps solar satellite data Easy to Use interface with detailed analysis capabilities

    3. Current User Demographics We currently have 1300 separate emails that have downloaded one or more versions of the software. Of those: Recognizable participants include Acciona, Worley Parsons, Konarka, PrimeStar Solar, EPRI, GE, Dow, Solo Power, Evergreen Solar, GT Solar, Chevron, Nanosolar, Boeing, Sun Edison, UPC Solar, Alcoa, RWBeck, CH2MHill, Solfocus, APS, SunPower Corp., SkyFuel, Raytheon, HelioVolt, Solaria, Miasole, Siemens, SolucarPower, Strategen, Invenergy, McKinsey, Johnson Controls, Honeywell, FPL, Duke Energy, Constellation, United, Sempra, Navigant Consulting Other anecdotal examples of SAM use: Clean Energy Advocates Encouraging NJ Clean Energy Program to adopt as standard. Alcoa using SAM to investigate costs and finance options for CSP. Arizona Public Service evaluate CSP and PV – want to use own weather data Financiers Potential use for due diligence of CSP projects PowerLight using SAM’s IPP financial analysis, apparently as a check on their internal calculations DOW using the SAM model to validate various commercial installation options for roof mount, BIPV, and field mount PV systems around the world.

    4. Validation underway – comparing model output vs. system output, with corresponding measured data substituted for TMY data – cSi systems in SW Next year – more technologies and locations Subcontract for outside validation of financial model New submodels, if necessary, for concentrators…

    5. Parabolic Trough Model Components

    6. “Generic” Performance Model Very simple performance model Output = Cap * CapFact * Perf. Factors Useful For: Solar Technologies not yet implemented in SAM (power towers) Future technologies Non-Solar technologies (wind, geothermal, hydro, etc) Compare solar with conventionals (coal, gas, etc.) Policy or Incentive Analysis where specific performance not critical

    7. SAM Support of Research for Underlying Models

    12. Finance Model Detailed Cashflow model Output LCOE, NPV, IRR, Revenue, Taxes, etc. Residential Cash, Loan or Mortgage Commercial Cash or Loan Utility Scale IPP (at right) or Utility

    13. Financial Incentives Detailed Incentives available Separate possible entries Federal State Utility Other Variable Tax Implications Incentives Tax Credits Investment Production Investment Based Incentives (Buy-Downs) Capacity Based Incentive Production Based Incentive

    14. Cost Inputs Adjusts with varying plant size Cost variables change with different markets Residential Commercial (Owned, 3rd Party Owner) Utility (IOU, IPP) Relatively High Level Able to link to complex cost model spreadsheets in Excel Send variables from SAM to Excel Capture “named ranges” from Excel back into SAM Excel linkage works with parametric runs

    16. Primary SAM output Page

    17. Policy Impacts Federal Investment Tax Credit

    18. Policy Impacts Sales Tax Exemption

    19. Policy Impacts Property Tax Exemption

    20. LCOE as a function of minimum required IRR and debt percentage

    21. Impact of Solar Resource for Typical CSP Trough Plant

    22. CSP Plant with Thermal Storage Optimized to Minimize LCOE

    23. LCOE vs. federal investment tax credit (%)

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