Intelligent Software Agent Technology USPACOM Success with Virtual Information Processing Agent Research (VIPAR) at the

1. Intelligent Software Agent TechnologyUSPACOM Success with Virtual Information Processing Agent Research (VIPAR) at the Virtual Information Center Thomas E. Potok, Ph.D. Applied Software Engineering Research Group Leader Computational Sciences and Engineering Division Oak Ridge National Laboratory Research Team Mark Elmore, Joel Reed, Jim Treadwell

2. Oak Ridge National Laboratory • Established in 1943 for the World War II Manhattan Project. • ORNL today pioneers the development of new energy sources, technologies, and materials • The advancement of knowledge in • Biological, Chemical, • Computational, Engineering, • Environmental, Physical, and Social Sciences.  • Budget: $870 million, 80% Department of Energy, 20% work for others. • 3800 employees, 1500 scientists and engineers

3. Intelligent Agents Technology Challenge: Can we effectively process increasing volumes of data? Agents Sensors Multimedia Data Image Text Binary One small step for man 11010010 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Time

4. Simple Agent Example Agent, find me the book “War and Peace,” and I need it tomorrow Dedicated Agents Amazon 2 Days $18.50 Barnes and Nobel 1 Day $21.75 B. Dalton 1 Day $20.25 Does the agent understand buying books? Form a plan to buy the book

5. Simple Agent Example Agent, find me the book “War and Peace,” and I need it tomorrow Dedicated Agents Amazon 2 Days $18.50 Barnes and Nobel 1 Day $21.75 B. Dalton 1 Day $20.25 Agent Communities Library 1 Day Free Does the agent understand buying books? Form a plan to buy the book eBay 1 Day $12.50 Execute the plan On-Line www.online-literature.com Now Free

6. USPACOM Virtual Information Center Manually gather Information from 20–30 newspapers Manually Organize Information Intellectually Analyze And Summarize Information Inside China CINC Summary Russia Today Summary Jakarta Post Analysts Unorganized Newspaper Articles

7. USPACOM Virtual Information Center Manually gather Information from 20–30 newspapers Manually Organize Information Intellectually Analyze And Summarize Information Inside China CINC Summary Russia Today Summary Jakarta Post Analysts Unorganized Newspaper Articles What if technology could do this for the analyst in real time?

8. CINC Summary New Intelligent Agent Approach • Gathers and organizes 10,000 article per day the articles for the analysts • Can increase the capability of an analyst by 10 fold • Leverage the analyst’s intellectual capacity for more precise decision support Technologically Gather, Organize, andSummarize Thousands of articles Intellectually Analyze And Summarize Information Inside China Russia Today Jakarta Post Summary Analysts Article Retrieval Agents Organize and summarize Articles

9. VIPAR Technology • Agglomerative hierarchical clustering • Dynamic vector space model • Entropy based term frequency measures • Resource Description Framework (RDF) agent ontologies • K-means knowledge discovery • Phylips tree rendering

10. D1 D2 D3 Clustering: A Simple Example 1. Original and Parsed Documents 2. Terms Dictionary 3. Vector Space Model 4. Document Similarity 5. Euclidean Distance 7. Phylips tree representation 6. Agglomerative Hierarchical Clustering 8 1 2 3 4 6 7

11. VIPAR Example “Taliban” Search – 15 FEB 2002 “Taleban” • Accountability in Afghanistan, FRIENDLY FIRE • U.S. paid off warlords • U.S. Taliban fighter will remain in custody • Army Troops Fired Upon in Kandahar; • Lindh Pleads Not Guilty to Terror Aid • Kabul warns of Taliban, al-Qaida holdouts • American Taliban pleads not guilty • World Scene February 11, 2002 • Combined dispatches and staff reports • Geneva rules for Taliban • Bending the Geneva Rules • Musharraf concedes rivalry renewed with Iran • 'Axis' speech starts paying off • Bush ties drug use to terrorist support • Troops search site for dead al Qaeda • Rumsfeld assails POW critics

12. Prisoners • POWs • Rumsfeld assails POW critics • Geneva rules for Taliban • Bending the Geneva Rules • American Taliban • U.S. Taliban fighter will remain in custody • Lindh Pleads Not Guilty to Terror Aid • American Taliban pleads not guilty • Afghan Region • Military Action • Accountability in Afghanistan, FRIENDLY FIRE • Army Troops Fired Upon in Kandahar; • Kabul warns of Taliban, al-Qaida holdouts • Troops search site for dead al Qaeda • Afghanistan • World Scene February 11, 2002 • Combined dispatches and staff reports • U.S. paid off warlords • Bush ties drug use to terrorist support • Other Middle Eastern Countries • 'Axis' speech starts paying off • Musharraf concedes rivalry renewed with Iran VIPAR Knowledge Management: The analyst’s Edge Same result, easier to “see” Prisoners Military Action POWs Afghanistan Other Middle Eastern Countries American Taliban Afghan Region

13. Endorsements • US Pacific Command’s CINC Admiral Blair • “A tremendously successful project” • “Software agents … lead to substantially improved analytical products.” • Science and Technology Advisor • “a grand slam home run!” • “first time we've seen information discovery and knowledge management software working at HQ USCINCPAC operationally.”

14. Neural Nets for Recovery Boiler Control Neural Nets for Bankruptcy Prediction Neural Nets for Spring-back Prediction Collaborative Design System Neural Nets for Resistance. Spot Welding Neural Nets for Material Mix Optimization Genetic Algorithms for Chemical Synthesis Knowledge-based Systems - Manufacturing Advisors Knowledge-based Systems for Constructability Design and Analysis of Computer Experiments Knowledge-based Computer Systems Calibration Successful Projects • We have extensive expertise in agent development Scientific Data Management VIPAR Knowledge Discovery Supply Chain Management Agent System Manufacturing Emulation Agent System Collaborative Management Environment • Over 10 successful projects within the last 5 years 1985 1990 1995 2000

15. Cyber Counterintelligence Example • 58,238 records of errors when accessing ORNL’s network on one day in September. • If printed, over 5000 pages worth of data • A Critical Decision • Is someone trying to hack into the system? • Who are the malicious users? • What can I ignore? • How can I analyze this with current tools? • What elements of this data are crucial?

16. Agent Technology Detecting Usage Patterns Pattern of person or persons intentionally hiding their identity Summary of 58,000 outside hits of the ORNL website Anonymous users potentially attacking the system Normal web user errors “Page not found” by user Potential attacks of internal e-mail systems Potential pattern of attack searching for network weaknesses

17. Video Feeds • GPS • Ammo level sensor • Gun sensor • Clothing sensors • Battlefield sensors • PDA • Orders • Maps • Personnel info • Enemy info • Battle info • Customs • Video Feeds • GPS • Ammo level sensor • Gun sensor • Clothing sensors • Battlefield sensors • PDA • Orders • Maps • Personnel info • Enemy info • Battle info • Customs • Video Feeds • GPS • Ammo level sensor • Gun sensor • Clothing sensors • Battlefield sensors • PDA • Orders • Maps • Personnel info • Enemy info • Battle info • Customs • Video Feeds • GPS • Ammo level sensor • Gun sensor • Clothing sensors • Battlefield sensors • PDA • Orders • Maps • Personnel info • Enemy info • Battle info • Customs • Video Feeds • GPS • Ammo level sensor • Gun sensor • Clothing sensors • Battlefield sensors • PDA • Orders • Maps • Personnel info • Enemy info • Battle info • Customs Information Challenge in Modern Command and Control Environments Troop assessment Damage assessments Casualty reports Logistics report Enemy intelligence Network Compromise Anthrax detection • Video Feed • GPS • Ammo level sensor • Gun sensor • Clothing sensors • Battlefield sensors • PDA • Orders • Maps • Personnel info • Enemy info • Battle info • Customs • Video Feed • GPS • Ammo level sensor • Gun sensor • Clothing sensors • Battlefield sensors • PDA • Orders • Maps • Personnel info • Enemy info • Battle info • Customs • Video Feed • GPS • Ammo level sensor • Gun sensor • Clothing sensors • Battlefield sensors • PDA • Orders • Maps • Personnel info • Enemy info • Battle info • Customs DECISION! Signals and Data Decision

18. Video Feeds • GPS • Ammo level sensor • Gun sensor • Clothing sensors • Battlefield sensors • PDA • Orders • Maps • Personnel info • Enemy info • Battle info • Customs • Video Feeds • GPS • Ammo level sensor • Gun sensor • Clothing sensors • Battlefield sensors • PDA • Orders • Maps • Personnel info • Enemy info • Battle info • Customs • Video Feeds • GPS • Ammo level sensor • Gun sensor • Clothing sensors • Battlefield sensors • PDA • Orders • Maps • Personnel info • Enemy info • Battle info • Customs Agents 2007 Troop assessment Damage assessments Casualty reports Logistics report Enemy intelligence Network Compromise Anthrax detection Intelligent Agents • Video Feed • GPS • Ammo level sensor • Gun sensor • Clothing sensors • Battlefield sensors • PDA • Orders • Maps • Personnel info • Enemy info • Battle info • Customs Intelligent Agent Low Ammo • Video Feeds • GPS • Ammo level sensor • Gun sensor • Clothing sensors • Battlefield sensors • PDA • Orders • Maps • Personnel info • Enemy info • Battle info • Customs • Video Feeds • GPS • Ammo level sensor • Gun sensor • Clothing sensors • Battlefield sensors • PDA • Orders • Maps • Personnel info • Enemy info • Battle info • Customs • Video Feed • GPS • Ammo level sensor • Gun sensor • Clothing sensors • Battlefield sensors • PDA • Orders • Maps • Personnel info • Enemy info • Battle info • Customs Anthrax detected (Medical Records) Enemy Near (see Video) Support ammo low Intelligent Agent Intelligent Agents Off Course • Video Feed • GPS • Ammo level sensor • Gun sensor • Clothing sensors • Battlefield sensors • PDA • Orders • Maps • Personnel info • Enemy info • Battle info • Customs Intelligent Agent Enemy Position DECISION Information Decision

19. Intelligent Agents Troop assessment Damage assessments Casualty reports Logistics report Enemy intelligence Network Compromise Anthrax detection • Video Feeds • GPS • Ammo level sensor • Gun sensor • Clothing sensors • Battlefield sensors • PDA • Orders • Maps • Personnel info • Enemy info • Battle info • Customs • Video Feeds • GPS • Ammo level sensor • Gun sensor • Clothing sensors • Battlefield sensors • PDA • Orders • Maps • Personnel info • Enemy info • Battle info • Customs • Video Feeds • GPS • Ammo level sensor • Gun sensor • Clothing sensors • Battlefield sensors • PDA • Orders • Maps • Personnel info • Enemy info • Battle info • Customs Agents 2012 Decision Analysis “What if…” • Video Feed • GPS • Ammo level sensor • Gun sensor • Clothing sensors • Battlefield sensors • PDA • Orders • Maps • Personnel info • Enemy info • Battle info • Customs Intelligent Agent Low Ammo • Video Feeds • GPS • Ammo level sensor • Gun sensor • Clothing sensors • Battlefield sensors • PDA • Orders • Maps • Personnel info • Enemy info • Battle info • Customs • Video Feeds • GPS • Ammo level sensor • Gun sensor • Clothing sensors • Battlefield sensors • PDA • Orders • Maps • Personnel info • Enemy info • Battle info • Customs • Video Feed • GPS • Ammo level sensor • Gun sensor • Clothing sensors • Battlefield sensors • PDA • Orders • Maps • Personnel info • Enemy info • Battle info • Customs Anthrax detected (Medical Records) Enemy Near (see Video) Support ammo low Intelligent Agent Intelligent Agents • Anthrax attack is real? • 13% of troops will die • 10,000 civilian will die • We engage the enemy? • 70% chance of victory • With air support 90% Off Course • Video Feed • GPS • Ammo level sensor • Gun sensor • Clothing sensors • Battlefield sensors • PDA • Orders • Maps • Personnel info • Enemy info • Battle info • Customs Intelligent Agent Enemy Position Information Decision Decision Modeling and Support Agents Manpower Agent Intelligence Agent Operations Agent Logistics Agent Strategic Plans Agent C4 Systems Agent Operational Plans Agent Force Structure Agent

20. Intelligent Agents Troop assessment Damage assessments Casualty reports Logistics report Enemy intelligence Network Compromise Anthrax detection • Video Feeds • GPS • Ammo level sensor • Gun sensor • Clothing sensors • Battlefield sensors • PDA • Orders • Maps • Personnel info • Enemy info • Battle info • Customs • Video Feeds • GPS • Ammo level sensor • Gun sensor • Clothing sensors • Battlefield sensors • PDA • Orders • Maps • Personnel info • Enemy info • Battle info • Customs • Video Feeds • GPS • Ammo level sensor • Gun sensor • Clothing sensors • Battlefield sensors • PDA • Orders • Maps • Personnel info • Enemy info • Battle info • Customs Decision Modeling and Support Agents Decision Modeling and Support Agents Manpower Agent Manpower Agent Intelligence Agent Intelligence Agent Operations Agent Operations Agent Logistics Agent Logistics Agent Strategic Plans Agent Strategic Plans Agent C4 Systems Agent C4 Systems Agent Operational Plans Agent Operational Plans Agent Force Structure Agent Force Structure Agent Agents Beyond 2012 • What if: • Anthrax attack is real? • 13% of troops will die • 10,000 civilian will die • We engage the enemy? • 70% chance of victory • With air support 90% Decision Analysis “What if?” • Video Feed • GPS • Ammo level sensor • Gun sensor • Clothing sensors • Battlefield sensors • PDA • Orders • Maps • Personnel info • Enemy info • Battle info • Customs Intelligent Agent Low Ammo • Video Feeds • GPS • Ammo level sensor • Gun sensor • Clothing sensors • Battlefield sensors • PDA • Orders • Maps • Personnel info • Enemy info • Battle info • Customs • Video Feeds • GPS • Ammo level sensor • Gun sensor • Clothing sensors • Battlefield sensors • PDA • Orders • Maps • Personnel info • Enemy info • Battle info • Customs • Video Feed • GPS • Ammo level sensor • Gun sensor • Clothing sensors • Battlefield sensors • PDA • Orders • Maps • Personnel info • Enemy info • Battle info • Customs Intelligent Agent How do we prevent future Anthrax attacks? … What other attacks are likely? … Anthrax detected (Medical Records) Enemy Near (see Video) Support ammo low Intelligent Agents Off Course • Video Feed • GPS • Ammo level sensor • Gun sensor • Clothing sensors • Battlefield sensors • PDA • Orders • Maps • Personnel info • Enemy info • Battle info • Customs Intelligent Agent Enemy Position

21. Summary • Intelligent software agents are a significant breakthrough technology • We have a progression of significantly successful, deployed, agent systems and research to our credit • Our systems represent a unique discrimination from state-of-the-practice, common, data mining • Enhancements would focus on military-specific needs, e.g.; languages, types of sources/data, decision aides, manpower savings

22. Contact Information Thomas E. Potok, Ph.D. Potokte@ornl.gov 865-574-0834