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Michigan and 2014: A State of Play

Michigan and 2014: A State of Play. An assessment of Michigan’s top statewide races. The MDP: think the Lions, if they hadn’t fired Jim Schwartz. Several statewide positions lack declared (SoS, Sup Ct) or widely supported (AG) candidates

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Michigan and 2014: A State of Play

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  1. Michigan and 2014: A State of Play An assessment of Michigan’s top statewide races

  2. The MDP: think the Lions, if they hadn’t fired Jim Schwartz • Several statewide positions lack declared (SoS, Sup Ct) or widely supported (AG) candidates • Statewide Democratic candidates (Schauer, Peters, et al.) lag behind Republican opponents Lon Johnson, MDP Chair

  3. Michigan Governor Governor Rick Snyder (R) v. Mark Schauer (D)

  4. Governor Snyder builds his lead… • Governor Snyder: < 50%, but consistently leads Democrat Mark Schauer • Recent polling has Snyder up

  5. … and Schauer lags behind. • Falling behind in polling, and in resources • Tough to gain on opponent; no specific plans have hampered him

  6. US Senate Terri Lynn Land (R) v. Rep. Gary Peters (D)

  7. Two Evenly Matched Teams… • Both have strong electoral records • Land: Secretary of State victories in 2002 and ’06 • Peters: a close loss to formerAG Cox in 2002, Congressional wins in 2010 and ‘12

  8. …with Land Exceeding Expectations • In the last two quarters of 2013, Land raised $3.6 million • According to recent FEC filings and polling, Land has a small, but meaningful lead • Independent ad buys bolster both candidates. • US Chamber and MI Chamber Endorse • War on Women comes to this race. Really.

  9. Michigan Supreme Court Justices Brian Zahra, David Viviano, and an open seat

  10. Snyder’s Appointments Up For Re-election • While rare for an incumbent justice to lose, there is precedent • In 2008 and 2010, incumbent justices Alton Davis and Cliff Tayor were, respectively, defeated • No announced candidates, but worth keeping an eye on the vacant seat up for grabs Justice Brian Zahra Justice David Viviano

  11. US Congress Races to watch: Rep. Dan Benishek (R, MI-1), Justin Amash (R, MI-3),Rep. Tim Walberg (R-MI-7), Rep. Kerry Bentivolio (R, MI-11) Open Seats: 4-R- Konetchy v. Mitchell v. Moolenaar (Camp) 8-R- Bishop v. McMillin (Rogers open); D-Darga v. Gretternberg v. Hank v. Scherzing 14: D- Burgess v. Clarke v. Hobbs v. Lawrence

  12. A Tight Race in Michigan’s 1st • Benishek’s 2012 race one of the tightest in the nation • In 2014, Benishek’s opponent is county sheriff Jerry Cannon • Cannon proving to be a strong fundraiser, but gaffe-prone Jerry Cannon (l) and Rep. Dan Benishek (r)

  13. Primaries to Watch Michigan’s 11th Michigan’s 3rd Libertarian Republican Rep. Justin Amash faces primary challenger Brian Ellis Amash endorsed by Club for Growth, Freedomworks Ellis ad hitting Amash on RTL issues/legislative record • Seat currently held by incumber Kerry Bentivolio • Challenger: Oakland County businessman Dave Trott. Endorsed by MI Chamber. • In the last quarter of 2013, Trott outraised Bentivolio 10 to 1. Trott is on tv. Bentivolio hearing today in Plymouth

  14. Primaries to Watch Michigan’s 8th Michigan’s 4th Republican +5-6 Peter Konetchyv. Paul Mitchell v. John Moolenaar Paul Mitchell went up with 2nd ad; organization John Moolenaar: Popular legislator; endorsements from elected officials/grassroots activists • Republican +3-4 • Conservative Mike Bishop v. Libertarian/Tea party Tom McMillin • Congressman Rogers endorsed Bishop; Congressman Amash endorsed McMillin

  15. Generals to Watch Michigan’s 7th Michigan’s 14th Democrat Battle Royale: former Congressman Hansen Clarke; State Rep Rudy Hobbs; Southfield Mayor Brenda Lawrence; and Burgess Foster A Conyers makes the ballot. Republican Christina Conyers • Republican +3-4 • Conservative Republican Tim Walberg. Gadfly primary Daniel Radcliffe North. • Democrat Pam Byrnes • Competitive fundraising in 1st quarter

  16. Attorney General and Secretary of State AG Bill Schuette (R) v. Totten/Dillard (D); SoS Ruth Johnson (R) v. Nobody (D)

  17. Schuette and Johnson: Free Ride to the End Zone? • SoS Ruth Johnson (R) has no announced opponent, with Byrum silent and Brown running as Schauer’s LG candidate • AG Schuette faces Mark Totten or Goddfrey Dillard, who both lack wide support among Democrats SoS Ruth Johnson (l), AG Bill Schuette (r)

  18. Michigan Legislature Likely GOP holds in Senate and House

  19. Michigan Legislature Highlights House Senate 26-12 GOP majority 4 key races all held by GOP 7th: Colbeck (R) v. Slavens (D) 17th: Zorn (R) v. Spade (D) (Open) 20th: O’Brien, Wenke, Zuiderveen (R) v. SeanMcCann(D) 32nd: Ken Horn (R) v, Stacey Erwin Oakes, Lewis, Federspiel (D) • 59-51 GOP majority • GOP Pickup to Watch:Canton area: Fausone v. Pagan/Mathas/Mosher; • Open Monroe Zorn seat: Jason Sheppard v Mima Kubiske. V. Dem Tom Redmond • Rising star: Livonia seats; Wayne Cty Commissioner Cox (R) likely Livonia candidate v. Crider • Holly Hughes (R) could flip Rep. Lamonte (D) seat, as could Tom Barrett (R) with Rep. Abed (D) • Competitive GOP-held seats in Troy and downriver Wayne with Howylrak and Sommerville, respectively

  20. Ballot Initiatives Minimum Wage hike, Personal Property Tax exemption Part-time legislature; Wolf Hunting

  21. Ballot Initiatives to Watch Raise MI: Minimum Wage hike Part-Time Legislaature Low on funds. $48,000 for cycle; $10,000 on hand Not sure signatures will happen Key contributors: Dave Agema; • Effort to put the hike on the ballot still developing—Restaurant Opportunity Center • $206,000 raised; $147,000 in-kind; $32,000 on hand • Competing legislative proposal.

  22. Ballot Initiatives to Watch PPT Reform • Citizens for Strong Safe Communities: $5.2 Million Raised • Serious Money: Ford $2 million; Dow $1.5 million; MMA $1.2 Million • $125,000 spent on start-up costs

  23. Ballot Initiatives to Watch Wolf Hunting • Effort to put the hike on the ballot still developing. Signatures collected • 2012 US Fish and Wildlife Deregulated Wolf from endangered species • MI Dept. Natural Resources allowed to regulate wolf hunting season. 700 Wolves. Nov/Dec 2013—43 wolf hunted • Competing proposals. Pro-signatures for citizens initative will be turned in and opposing will be knocked off.

  24. Ballot Initiatives to Watch Wolf Hunting—Keep Michigan Wolves Protected Citizens for Professional Wildlife Management Ballot initiative to reinforce MI NRC allowing hunts $464, 398 raised $430,000 spent; $36,529 on hand Conservation groups supporting • $1.4 Million Raised; $1,000,000 spent; $427, 594 on hand • Most spending collecting signatures • Humane Society Backing

  25. Questions?

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