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2000 46% of adults use internet 5% with broadband at home 50% own a cell phone 0% connect wirelessly <10% use “cloud”

A VISION OF THE DIGITAL FUTURE News is pervasive, portable, personalized, participatory – and a social experience Lee Rainie Director – Pew Internet Project Knight-McCormick Leadership Institute 7.29.10 The internet is the change agent Then and now 2000 46% of adults use internet

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2000 46% of adults use internet 5% with broadband at home 50% own a cell phone 0% connect wirelessly <10% use “cloud”

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  1. A VISION OF THE DIGITAL FUTURENews is pervasive, portable, personalized, participatory – and a social experienceLee RainieDirector – Pew Internet ProjectKnight-McCormick Leadership Institute7.29.10

  2. The internet is the change agent Thenand now 2000 46% of adults use internet 5% with broadband at home 50% own a cell phone 0% connect wirelessly <10% use “cloud” 0% = tech social networkers THEN: slow, stationary connections built around my computer 2010 79% of adults use internet 66% have broadband at home 82% own a cell phone 59% connect wirelessly >two-thirds use “cloud” 48% = tech social networkers NOW: faster, mobile connections built around outside servers and storage

  3. Are hot new gadgets evident now? The hot gadgets and applications that will capture the imagination of users in 2020 are pretty evident today and will not take many of today’s savviest innovators by surprise. 16% experts 17% full sample Hot gadgets and apps that will capture the imagination of users in 2020 will often come “out of the blue” and not have been anticipated by many of today’s savviest innovators. 81% experts 80% full sample July 9, 2010 3

  4. Themes iPhone, iPhone, iPhone Innovation ecosystem will change: bandwidth / processing There are basic trends evident now that will come to fruition and some groundwork that has been in place for years that will expand to have more impact The internet of things Growth of mobile connectivity and location-based services Bigger/thinner TVs - 3D displays “Consolidated,” all-purpose gadgets and apps July 9, 2010 4

  5. 10 ways the media ecosystem will change in the coming years

  6. Media ecosystem change – 1 Volume of information grows -- Chris Anderson -- Hal Varian -- San Diego State research

  7. Internet of things is built and “exaflood” of data swells … more civic data becomes available for news

  8. Media ecosystem change – 2 Venues of intersecting with information multiply and the availabilityof information expands to all hours of the day and all places … more screens; more surfaces; more interfaces -- Nielsen Company

  9. Media ecosystem change – 3 Variety of information and sources of information grow as niches narrow and proliferate -- Markus Prior -- James Hamilton

  10. Media ecosystem change – 4 Velocity of information increases; the flow of information is rain-like; smart mobs multiply -- Howard Rheingold Clay Shirky

  11. Media ecosystem change – 5 People’s vigilance for information changes in two directions: 1) attention is truncated (Linda Stone) 2) attention is elongated (Andrew Keen; Terry Fisher)

  12. Media ecosystem change – 6 • Augmented Reality -- Apps universe The vibrance and immersive qualities of media environments changes as real and virtual worlds merge… that makes them more compelling places to hang out -- Metaverse Roadmap Project

  13. Media ecosystem change – 6 2) Life-logging -- Gordon Bell The vibrance and immersive qualities of media environments changes as real and virtual worlds merge… that makes them more compelling places to hang out -- Metaverse Roadmap Project

  14. Media ecosystem change – 7 Valence (relevance) of information improves – search, comprehension, customization get better as we create the “Daily Me” and “Daily Us” and the “web of meaning” – Nicholas Negroponte -- Sir Tim Berners-Lee

  15. Media ecosystem change – 8 The voice of information democratizes and the visibility of new creators is enhanced. Identity and privacy change. -- William Dutton -- Clay Shirky

  16. Media ecosystem change – 9 Voting on and ventilating about information proliferates as tagging, rating, crowdsourcing and groundswells expand; collective intelligenceasserts itself -- Henry Jenkins -- David Weinberger -- Charlene Li

  17. Media ecosystem change – 10 Social networks become more vivid and meaningful. Media-making is part of social networking. “Networked individualism” takes hold -- Barry Wellman -- Duncan Watts

  18. For the audience, news is pervasive, portable, personalized, participatory, and social

  19. Pervasive (1) -- People use diverse platforms

  20. Pervasive (2) -- People graze across platforms

  21. Pervasive (3) – Platforms have converged online • 68% of internet news consumers have watched video news stories • 62% watched live feeds • 48% emailed stories or news videos

  22. Pervasive (4) -- People blend old and new media On typical day, 59% of adults get new online and from at least one offline source

  23. For the audience, news is portable

  24. 33% of cell owners get news on handhelds

  25. For the audience, news is personalized

  26. 67% of all Americans say they only follow specific subjects 28% of internet users have customized a news page and 42% say customization is an important web feature to them ~ 50% belong to listservs / large email groups ~ 33% of internet users get RSS feeds ~ 25% get news alerts The “Daily Me” and “Daily Us” is being built

  27. For the audience, news is participatory

  28. 37% of internet users are news contributors / disseminators

  29. For the audience, news is a social experience

  30. 72% of Americans who follow the news at least now and then say they enjoy talking with friends, family, and colleagues about what is happening in the world 69% feel that keeping up with the news is a social or civic obligation 50% say they rely on the people around them to tell them when there is news they need to know People use news as a social currency (1)

  31. 57% of internet users share links to news stories 30% of internet users get news on typical day through their SNS use 13% follow news organizations and journalists on SNS 6% get news via Twitter feeds People use news as a social currency (2)

  32. Serendipitous encounters with news still happen AND still matter 80% of online news consumers (57% of whole population) say they run across news several times a week while they are online for another purpose People use news as a social currency (3)

  33. 4 implications for news operations

  34. Implication 1 Social networks matter more as sentries, filters, curators, and distribution channels of news

  35. Implication 2 “Consumers” are in charge of the news playlist and experience … and they want to participate in the news-gathering and distribution process

  36. Implication 3 Much news is a commodity and consumers have a classic “market” response: They don’t want to pay for something that is abundant and available elsewhere

  37. The Online News Consumer How many websites, if any, do you routinely rely on for news and information? % of Online News Consumers

  38. The Online News Consumer Do you have a favorite online news source, or do you not have a favorite? % of Online News Consumers

  39. The Online News Consumer Do you have a favorite online news source, or do you not have a favorite? Only 15% of those with a favorite site – 7% of all people who get news online – would be willing to pay for continued access to that site % of Online News Consumers

  40. Implication 4 News organizations have to figure out where they can add value in the news chain in a more complex media ecosystem with more distracted audience

  41. 2 models to help you organize your thinking about your place in the value chain

  42. Pew Research Center’s Tom Rosenstiel model: Journalism as a service – not product The Eight Functions of 21st Century Media - Authentication - Sense Making - Watch Dog - Smart Aggregation - Witness - Empowerment - Forum Leader - Role Model

  43. Charlie Firestone model

  44. Eight critical uncertainties • apps impact • advertiser innovation • small biz behavior • internet architecture / cloud configuration • IP policy • privacy concerns • what hyperlocal looks like and means • capacity of info "markets" to find the truth

  45. Final uncertainty – how news operations respond to the paradoxes of new news world • More material – but less time with news • More direct access to experts and more knowledge being generated – but not smarter at the general societal level • More voices and more variety – but more traffic to big brands • More participation and engagement – but less revenue • More transparency of news creation process – but less trust of coverage • People say it is easier to keep up AND harder to navigate the clutter • People are satisfied with MSM coverage of the issues that matter to them AND see more bias in coverage

  46. Thank you! Lee Rainie Director Pew Internet & American Life Project 1615 L Street NW Suite 700 Washington, DC 20036 Email: Lrainie@pewinternet.org Twitter: http://twitter.com/lrainie 202-419-4500

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