How to Deal with the Potential Breakdown of Computer Networks

1. How to Deal with the Potential Breakdown of Computer Networks Invited Presentation ED-MEDIA 2005 Montreal, July 2, 2005 Hermann Maurer Graz University of Technology and JOANNEUM RESEARCH Graz/ Austria © H. Maurer

2. We live in an age of extensive division of labor and globalization. Computerization is enabling and speeding up this process and introduces a new phenomenon: Division of labor and globalization extend more and more also to non- material products (information, software, publishing, knowledge,…) Good example: WWW (Wikipedia!) and digital libraries. © H. Maurer

3. Advantages of Globalization Access to many things that otherwise we would not have More efficient production (climate, raw-material,…), Certain efforts are only possible through massivecollaboration: The ‚animal‘ humankind is able to do things small groups of individuals could not do © H. Maurer

4. Disadvantages of Globalization Potential exploitation (without consideration for people and environment,…) Arbitrary shift of production facilities (unemployment, waste,…) Increases transport (i.e. dependency on oil which is a danger for peace and environment!) Globalization creates dangerous dependencies © H. Maurer

5. ... and then the Internet collapsed one day… © H. Maurer

6. Could it really happen that computers and computer networks fail in large regions for prolonged periods? Yes. The danger is particularly high due to a targeted attack. It is a miracle that no serious case of cyber-attack has occurred yet! Note interconnection between power grid and computers / computer networks ! Power grid e.g. out for 6 weeks in Auckland in 2002! © H. Maurer

7. The latest book inmy “Xperts-Series” describes exactly such a scenario. www.iicm.edu/Xperts © H. Maurer

8. The XPERTS- Saga The Telekinetic (Maurer) The Paracommunicator (Lennon) The Paradoppelganger(Maurer) The Parashield(Osborne) eSmog! (Backhaus) Mindwave (Shearer) The Parawarriors(Maurer) The Paranet (Maurer) Fighting big Brother (Maurer) © H. Maurer

9. Some figures Incidents 2003: 137.729 http://www.cert.org/stats/ © H. Maurer

10. Further figures © H. Maurer

11. Who believes in a dramatic collapse within the next ten years? “Some 66% agreed with the following prediction: At least one devastating attack will occur in the next 10 years on the networked infrastructure or the nationwide power grid” (PEW Report on “The Future of the Internet”, January 9, 2005) Persons interviewed included e.g. Vincet Cerf, Esther Dyson, Bob Metcalfe, Dan Gillmore, Simon Garfinkel, Howard Rheingold, David Weinberger, usw. © H. Maurer

12. Report for the President February 2005 © H. Maurer

13. © H. Maurer

14. Consequences of complete breakdown are catastrophic: clear How can we avoid them? • (1) Increase stability of computers and networks! • Globalization where necessary, but regionalization wherever reasonable • Reduce terrorism. One aspect is to reduce injustice in world as one of the reasons for terrorism. Help third world with IT © H. Maurer

15. Reduce injustice in the world “Balance or Destruction” F.J. Radermacher Basic idea: future increase in productionis possible without further damaging the environment. This growth has to be distributed unevenly. “Global Marshall Plan” © H. Maurer

16. Help in the third world using IT Spread new local knowledge world wide Example: How to boil water with limited fuel © H. Maurer

17. Boiling water © H. Maurer

18. Help in the third world with IT Spread new local knowledge world –wide Other examples are e.g. can-houses, sandbags, chistosoma,… © H. Maurer

19. Globalization where necessary, regionalization where reasonable e.g.: “Asymmetric distance tax” based on GNP:--- increases stability through self sufficiency --- supports new distribution of wealth --- supports regionalization and natural life --- also holds for non-material aspects © H. Maurer

20. Computers und networks must become more secure (stable)! e.g. radical approach: Give up John von Neumann computer concept Operating systems and basic software on chips Write-once storage (may be with mechanical override) Use network only when needed © H. Maurer

21. Other approaches Thin clients in networks where much is done in servers Redundant networks and addressing schemes Variety of operating systems/ configurable OS Croquet project: www.opencroquet.org © H. Maurer

22. Other approaches Use of crytopgraphic co-processors Like in:www.trustedcomputinggroup.org Can possibly lead to unwanted control www.cl.cam.ac.uk/~rja14/tcpa-faq.html www.iicm.edu/Xperts © H. Maurer

23. F.J. Radermacher in “Balance or Destruction” talks about the balance between countries. We need this, but we also need a healthy balance between globalization and regionalization, and a clean solution for secure computing without the dangers inherent in “Trusted Computing”. © H. Maurer

24. What will YOU do after this talk to help improve the stability of our systems? At least--- tell everyone: In a very globalized networked society we are more vulnerable than is good for us, unless we start to increase the safety of our systems right now! © H. Maurer

25. Just think: what would happen if electricity fails for 6 weeks in the central USA and a 1400 miles radius around it in, say, January 2007? © H. Maurer

26. Thanks for your attention!H.Maurer URLs: www.know-center.at www.hyperwave.comwww.iicm.edu/maurer email: hmaurer@iicm.edu More on related stuff: www.iicm.edu/Xperts © H. Maurer