by Ciro Fiorillo, CTA - NFPCSP

1. National Food Policy Capacity Strengthening Program Research in support of the National Food Policy: Results of challenge fund research and review of on-going projects Wednesday, 18 February 2009 Workshop’s context and objectives by Ciro Fiorillo, CTA - NFPCSP

2. Rice Production Agriculture has proved resilient to the combined effect of flood, cyclone and high costs of fuel and fertilizers with an exceptional response by farmers to the high food prices. BORO +18.7% AUS + 25.2% AMAN + 18.1%

3. Undernourishment • Long term positive trend reverted by 2007/08 crises • FAO/WFP estimatedimpact of food crisis: • - Consuming less than 2,122 kcal/day:+7.5Million • - Consuming less than 1,805 kcal/day:+6.9Million FAO, SOFI, 2008

4. Underweight and Stunting • Estimated impacts of price increase from 2006 to 2008: • Wasting + 49.7% • Underweight + 23.1% (BRAC, 2009) 2007 data NIPORT-BDHS ; Other years: HKI/IPHN-NSP

5. Supply-Utilization Balance 2008-09 Even with a pessimistic scenario, 2008/09 ends with a substantial stock increase Scenario 1 - DAE’s optimistic targets (Production: DAE targets except Aus, BBS official figure; Imports: actual as of 12th Feb 544 + NFPCSP estimates for the rest of the year) Scenario 2 - NFPCSP more conservative calculations (Production: Aus is official BBS figure; For Aman and Boro, DAE target growth rate 07/08 to 08/09 applied to actual 07/08 figures; Imports: actual as of 14th Jan 544 + NFPCSP estimates for the rest of the year)

6. Food security in Bangladesh:dealing with chronic food insecurity • Substantial progress in production increase, poverty and undernourishment reduction, BUT: • large section of the population still affected by chronic food insecurity • Substantial deterioration of the nutritional status of the poor during price hike, with some irreversible effects • Agriculture proved to be resilient to natural and market shocks but vulnerable population needs support • Bangladesh is achieving rice self sufficiency but no reason for complacency

7. Emerging threats to food security Price volatility + global economic crisis National average retail price (coarse rice) January 2009 on January 2008 = -13.7% January 2009 on January 2006 = 52.7% Source: MISM

8. Emerging threats to food security Price volatility • low food prices good for consumers but reduce production incentives: risk of domestic and global prices shooting up again • reduction of global fertilizer/fuel prices not fully reflected domestically due to subsidies, while food prices are more responsive profitability to decline with negative effect on production • Global economic crisis • reduced exports and remittances to impact on income, employment and fiscal revenues

9. Food Policy priorities • Immediate responces: global economic crisis requires urgent interventions to promote growth and scale up safety nets • Enhance safety nets reducing leakages and improving coverage, targeting and effectiveness • Link safety nets to public works and investment in infrastructure Moreover: -Promote agriculture as the main domestic source of economic growth - Increase productivity to reduce costs and prices, sustainably improve availability and raise incomes • Promote diversification of diet and support nutritional status of disadvantaged groups • Ensure adequate public stock for up-scaling safety nets, market stabilization, emergency reserves

10. Food Policy Approach Achieving MDG 1 and the World Food Summit target will require renewed and intensified policy commitment FOOD SECURITY POLICIES should: • be comprehensive including: - availability and stability of supply - economic, social and physical access - food utilization for safe and balanced nutrition • combine short term and structural responses, i.e. twin track approach: direct transfer should be linked to graduation and development • flexibly adjust to the changing market situation

11. The National Food Policy • a comprehensive framework for food security interventions • encompassing • Availability, Adequate and stable supply of safe and nutritious food • Access Increased purchasing power and access to food by the poor through safety nets • Nutrition for all individuals, especially women and children NFP Plan of Action (2008-2015)approved by the Food Planning and Monitoring Committee (FPMC) on 5 August 2008….

12. Informed policy making for FS In order to be effective, policy decisions on food security needs to be based on: • reliable, complete and timely information • analysis of the information relevant to policy making • building capacity and institutions • scientific knowledge from research • dialog with stakeholders in civil society

13. Completed Research (CF 2007) Production and availability: 2 Utilization/Nutrition: 2 Economic Access: 2 Physical and Social Access: 2 Cross cutting themes: 6 (environment, gender, governance, etc.)

14. On-going Research Production and availability 2 PR (2007), 5 CF (2008) & 5 PR (2008) Utilization/Nutrition 1 PR (2007), 1CF & 1 PR (2008) Economic Access 3 PR (2007) & 5 CF (2008) Physical and Social Access 3 PR (2008) Cross cutting themes 2 PR (2007) & 2 PR (2008)

15. Reorganize fertilizer distribution and promote balanced use Improve farmers and traders access to bank credit Promote tolerant (flood, submergence, salt) rice varieties Establish land zoning to grow HYV rice Regulate fishing to ensure sustainability Facilitate co-existence of rice and shrimp farming Ensure seed standards and promote local varieties Provide regulations and training for improved use of agrochemicals Develop market infrastructures, e.g., fish landing, transport POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS - Availability

16. Improve planning and designing of safety net programs based on ex ante assessment of feasibility Strengthen geographical and socio economic targeting, focusing on extremely vulnerable in more remote areas Strengthen community participation in implementation to improve local governance Reinforce monitoring systems Improve transparency to reduce leakages Provide adequate training to GoB officials for managing safety nets at field level POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS – social access

17. POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS - nutrition • Adopt and enforce food safety regulations • Establish and promote quality standard • Promote safe farming of safe food • Promote awareness of the food-chain linkages to improve food quality and safety • Use of germ plasm cultivars of higher nutritional quality, while developing new varieties with low glycemic index

18. Purpose of the Workshop • Discuss findings of 14 completed CF research with a focus on policy implications • Present through poster paper preliminary findingsof 8 PR research undertaken at the end of 2007 • Present through poster papersobjectives and methodologies of new research initiated in late 2008 • Promote dialogue among researchers and between researchers and policy makers in support of decision making

19. Thank you !

20. The NFP Plan of Action • 26 areas of intervention and 314 actions • Fully consistent with the PRSP and other relevant policies (e.g., agricultural policy), the PoA provides: • a framework to coordinate government interventions • a reference for development support to food security to be in line with the Paris Declaration on aid effectiveness (alignment, ownership, etc.) Developed by 12 government agencies led by the FPMU through a wide consultation process involving main Government actors and other stakeholders

21. The PoA: Highlights • Improving productivity and efficiency of domestic food production • Research and extension, inputs, water management credit & insurance, market infrastructure, marketing, etc. • Reduce vulnerability to price and other shocks and protect vulnerable people’s access to food • Price support and stabilization, public stock management, Early Warning, etc. • Disaster Management, PFD & safety nets, income generation, MSMEs development, skills development, etc. • Sustain programs for reducing malnutrition • balanced food, nutrition education, supplementation and fortification, food safety, women and children health

22. NFP STRATEGY AND POLICY RECOMMENDATIONSStrategy 1.2.: Efficient food markets • Development of fish marketing systems (tilapia) • Need for developing modern infrastructure for fish landing, transport and preservation

23. NFPCSP: Project Formulation and Partners • developed alongside the National Food Policy • Initially: 3 donors for a 5 year project Now: Phase I : 2 donors for 3 years (till end 2008) Phase II: 2 donors for 4 years (till end 2012) PARTNERS Donors: • GoB: • FPMU • 11 Ministries/Dept FAO: Implementing Technical Agency

24. Rice Rice Rice Rice Rice Rice Rice Rice Rice Daily national average retail price:comparing 2007 and 2008 • Price growth has slowed down over the past 4-5 months • Unusual behaviour: increased in May/June, decreased in July/Aug/Sept Average January 2009 on January 2008 = -13.75% Average January 2009 on January 2006 = 52.7%

25. NFP STRATEGY AND POLICY RECOMMENDATIONSStrategy 1.3.1: Price incentives for domestic food production • Price alternatives and options • - Expectations play key role in determining prices, government policies can affect prices • - Significant impacts of coarse rice price • - Importance of scaling up safety nets

26. NFP STRATEGY AND POLICY RECOMMENDATIONSStrategy 1.2.1 :Development of market infra structure • Import marketing and marketing systems (coastal) • -Need for reorganizing of present fertilizer system • (timely and reasonable price, maintain buffer stocks and better planning of monthly requirements) • -Need for supporting local seed varieties • -Training needed on use of pesticides and market regulation

27. NFP STRATEGY AND POLICY RECOMMENDATIONSStrategy 1.1.1 : Agriculture diversification and improved agriculture technology • Biodiversity related studies • Homestead plant biodiversity programme ( timber, fruit, medicinal and speice) may be considered for implementation nationwide

28. Environment related studies -Promote balanced fertilizers use -Land zoning to grow HYV rice -Awareness raising and improvement of quality mechanisms - Improve farmers and traders access to low cost bank credit -Tolerant (flood and submergence) rice varieties to be introduced Development of fish marketing systems for improving food supply -Regulation of sustainable fishing -Expansion as well intensification of shrimp aquaculture should be considered with caution -Saline resistant rice varieties should be developed/promoted for co-existence of rice and shrimp NFP STRATEGY AND POLICY RECOMMENDATIONSStrategy 1.1. : Efficient and sustainable increase in food production

29. Research Topics: CF Production and availability 11. Input marketing and management systems in coastal regions. 14. Effects of chemicals & hormones on cultivation & marketing of vegetables, banana Physical and Social Access 1. Community participation & safety net management in vulnerable char lands. 7. Spectre problems of food distribution systems & impacts on household FS Economic Access 8.Development potential of tilapia marketing systems for food supply. 9.FS for the poor: policy options under alternative price regimes Utilization/Nutrition 4. Problems and possibilities of production & consumption of safe foods. 6.Screening nutritionally rich and low glycemic index rice varieties Cross cutting themes 2.Impact of intensive cropping on long term degradation of natural resources. 3.Transparency and accountability for food security. 5.Integrated management of costal zones for food security. 10.Global warming and sea level rising impacts on agriculture/food security. 12. Environmental degradation and food security in St Martin’s Island. 13.Homestead plant biodiversity in South west coastal areas

31. Rice balance 2007-08 • Despite flood and cyclone, positive balance estimated • Total stocks increased by almost 2.5 Million tons NFPCSP estimates. Data in thousand tons if not otherwise specified

32. NFPCSP research Grant Initiative Steering Committee Approves TORs of RGP and modalities for selection of grants Donors Participation in selection of CS Representatives GoB - FPMU Preparation of research needs digests & organization of Workshops and Seminars Research Grants Panel (RGP) Research Grants Administrator Technical Assistance Team Chaired by FAO Representative Members : -Chairperson of the donor Consortium - Representative from FAO’s ESA Division - Representative from WFP - Representative from FPMU - 2 Representatives from Civil Society - TAT Team Leader Member secretary: Research Grants Administrator (RGA) Technical support Administrative support Select research proposals for grants Challenge Fund (CF) Programme Funded Research (PR)

33. NFPCSP: Project Formulation and Partners • developed alongside the National Food Policy • Initially: 3 donors for a 5 year project Now: Phase I : 2 donors for 3 years (till end 2008) Phase II: 2 donors for 4 years (till end 2012) PARTNERS Donors: • GoB: • FPMU • 11 Ministries/Dept FAO: Implementing Technical Agency

34. Rice Rice Rice Rice Rice Rice Rice Rice Rice Daily national average retail price:comparing 2007 and 2008 • Price growth has slowed down over the past 4-5 months • Unusual behaviour: increased in May/June, decreased in July/Aug/Sept Average January 2009 on January 2008 = -13.75% Average January 2009 on January 2006 = 52.7%