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Climate Change: our final Tragedy of the Commons?

Climate Change: our final Tragedy of the Commons?. Kevin Anderson Tyndall Centre 2012. Presentation outline. Current aspirations and emission trends Why we should strive for 2°C The levels of mitigation required of the UK Behavioural and technical opportunities Messages for business

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Climate Change: our final Tragedy of the Commons?

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  1. Climate Change: our final Tragedy of the Commons? • Kevin Anderson • Tyndall Centre • 2012

  2. Presentation outline Current aspirations and emission trends Why we should strive for 2°C The levels of mitigation required of the UK Behavioural and technical opportunities Messages for business Summary Manchester Energy

  3. The international energy agency’s view on climate change • “When I look at this [CO2] data, the trend is perfectly in line with a temperature increase • of 6 degrees Celsius, which would have devastating consequences for the planet.” • “we have 5 years to change the energy system – or have it changed” • Fatih Birol - IEA chief economist • Similar concerns expressed by government chief scientists, PwC, World Bank Manchester Energy

  4. Climate change commitments • International‘To hold the increase in global temperature below 2 degrees Celsius • and take action .. consistent with science and on the basis of equity‘ • EU ‘must ensure global average temperature increases do not exceed preindustrial levels by more than 2°C’ • UK ‘average global temperatures mustrise no more than 2°C’ Manchester Energy

  5. How do 2 & 4°C futures fit with CO2 trends? • What is the role of energy?

  6. Global emission of fossil fuel CO2(inc. cement) Billion tonnes CO2 Year

  7. Global emission of fossil fuel CO2(inc. cement) David King CC most dangerous threat Royal Commission report (60% by 2050) UN Climate change panel established (IPCC) Rio + 20 Copenhagen Accord Billion tonnes CO2 RIO Earth Summit Year

  8. Global emission of fossil fuel CO2(inc. cement) Rio + 20 … yet emissions have continued to rise (~6% in 2010, ~3% 2011 & 12) Global economic downturn Billion tonnes CO2 Year

  9. Global emission of fossil fuel CO2(inc. cement) Rio + 20 … so what of future emissions? Billion tonnes CO2 Year

  10. Global emission of fossil fuel CO2(inc. cement) • Energy system design lives (lock-in) • Supply technologies 25-50 year • Large scale infrastructures • Built environment • Aircraft and ships ~30 years Rio + 20 30-100 years Billion tonnes CO2 Year

  11. Global emission of fossil fuel CO2(inc. cement) … and assuming current mitigation plans Rio + 20 Billion tonnes CO2 Year

  12. Global emission of fossil fuel CO2(inc. cement) Rio + 20 ~3000GtCO2 for 2000-2050 ~5000GtCO2 for 2000-2100 Billion tonnes CO2 … i.e. a 4°C – 6°C rise between 2050 & 2100 Year

  13. Global emission of fossil fuel CO2(inc. cement) Rio + 20 Billion tonnes CO2 Year

  14. Global emission of fossil fuel CO2(inc. cement) Rio + 20 Billion tonnes CO2 … but building low/zero carbon electrical supply needs to begin now Dema n d Too early for supply SUPPLY & demand Year

  15. So, if 2°C is too challenging, what about 4°C – or more?

  16. For 4°C global mean surface temperature 5°C - 6°C global land mean … & increase °C on the hottest days of: 8°C - 10°C in Central Europe In low latitudes 4°Cgives up to 40% reduction in maize & rice as population heads towards 9 billion by 2050

  17. There is a widespread view that 4°C is: • incompatible with an organised global community • beyond ‘adaptation’ • devastating to eco-systems • highly unlikely to be stable (‘tipping points) • … consequently … • 4°C should be avoided at ‘all’ costs

  18. UK energy and the 2°C challenge • 10% reduction in emissions year on year • 40% reduction by 2015 • 70% 2020 • 90+% 2030 Impossible? … is living with a 4°C global temperature rise by 2050-70 less impossible?

  19. Where to from here?

  20. Who needs to lead on these reductions? Pareto’s 80:20 rule 80% of something relates to … 20% of those involved ~50% of emissions from ~1% of population … as a guide 40-60% emissions from 1-5% population ~80% of emissions from ~20% of population run this 3 times

  21. Who’s in the 1-to-5%? • Climate scientists • Climate journalists & pontificators • OECD (& other) academics • Anyone who gets on a plane • For the UK anyone earning over £30k

  22. What options are there technically? The Electricity system Fuel Production, Extraction &Transport Light, Refrign Electricity Consumption Transmission Powerstation 10 50 54 120 133 Demand opportunities dwarf those from supply in short-term

  23. What options are there technically? Car efficiency (without rebound) • EU 2015 plan 130g/km (fleet mean with buy out) • 2008 BMW 109g/km, VW, 85-99g/km; 1998 Audi A2 ~ 75g/km • ~8 year penetration of new cars … ~90% of vehicle-km ~40-50% CO2 reduction by 2020 with no new technology • Reverse recent trends in occupancy • ~60-70% reduction by 2020

  24. So what do we know?

  25. For businesses the message is simple but uncomfortable • Should avoid 4°C at all costs • Need ~70% decarbonisation over next 5-10 years • Only small % of global population need to mitigate • Low carbon energy supply is too little too late in the West • Principal response is to reduce energy demand now • Carbon trading & prices are not viable for non-marginal (large) reductions

  26. Headline messages • Change behaviour- today (producers and consumers) • Improve technology - now & over the next few years • Consume less

  27. To Summarise

  28. Uncomfortable conclusions from conservative analysis • Link between cumulative emissions & temp’ is broadly correct • Non-OECD nations peak emissions by 2025/30 • There are rapid reductions in deforestation & food emissions • No ‘discontinuities’ (tipping points) occur & Stern/CCC/IEA’s “feasible” reductions of 3-4% p.a. is achieved • 2°C stabilisation is virtuallyimpossible • 4°C by 2050-2070 looks ‘likely’(could be earlier & on the way to 6°C+)

  29. So … for businesses? • Lead by example • Don’t be the exception - (cars, planes, ships – all argue to be treated leniently) • Don’t hide behind blame of others - (UK blames China, China blame US …) • Consider the system - (e.g. shale’s impact on coal use, etc.) • Acknowledge it is not going to be easy – it will often hurt

  30. So … for businesses? Be courageous as business leaders and as citizens Mitigate for 2°C, but plan for 4°C – or more

  31. … and finally “… this is not a message of futility, but a wake-up call of where our rose-tinted spectacles have brought us. Real hope, if it is to arise at all, will do so from a bare assessment of the scale of the challenge we now face.” Anderson & Bows. Royal Society 2011

  32. … and finally “at every level the greatest obstacle to transforming the world is that we lack the clarity and imagination to conceive that it could be different.” Roberto Unger

  33. End • Kevin Anderson • Tyndall Centre • 2012

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