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Return Flow Discussion

Return Flow Discussion. ESHMC Meeting 6 March 2008 Presented by Stacey Taylor. Overview. Bryce Contor’s slides Historical data analysis: IESW007 (Big and Little Wood Rivers) IESW054 (Richfield) Ongoing Snake River return data (groups) General conclusions. Current Calculation Method.

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Return Flow Discussion

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  1. Return Flow Discussion ESHMC Meeting 6 March 2008 Presented by Stacey Taylor

  2. Overview • Bryce Contor’s slides • Historical data analysis: • IESW007 (Big and Little Wood Rivers) • IESW054 (Richfield) • Ongoing Snake River return data (groups) • General conclusions

  3. Current Calculation Method Returns = b1* Diversions (one equation for each entity) Returns Diversions

  4. Alternate Methods Alternate Method (1) Alternate Method (2) Returns = -bo+ b1* Diversions) (one equation for each entity) Returns = logarithmic function (one equation for each entity) Returns Diversions Returns Returns = bo (one equation for each entity) Returns Alternate Method (3) Alternate Methods (4) and (5) Returns = exponential function (one equation for each entity) Returns OR Returns = bo + b1* Diversions (one equation for each entity) Diversions Diversions Diversions

  5. Raster Graphics • Created several raster graphics to represent returns and diversions for IESW007 and IESW054 • Different colors represent different diversions/returns.

  6. Example Raster (1) Diversion 1,000 ac-ft 1928 0 Water Year 5 10 15 2004 20 Oct. Sept. Month

  7. Example Raster (2) Diversion 1,000 ac-ft 1928 0 Water Year 5 10 15 2004 20 Oct. Sept. Month

  8. Example Raster (3) Diversion 1,000 ac-ft 1928 0 Water Year 5 10 15 2004 20 Oct. Sept. Month

  9. IESW007 Total Diversions(Big and Little Wood Rivers) Diversion (1,000 ac-ft) Water Year 0 1928 10 1940 20 30 1950 40 1960 50 1970 60 1980 70 80 1990 90 2004 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Month

  10. IESW007 Total Returns(Big and Little Wood Rivers) Return (1,000 ac-ft) Water Year 1928 0 0.1 0.2 1940 0.3 0.4 1950 0.5 0.6 0.7 1960 0.8 0.9 1970 1.0 1.1 1980 1.2 1.3 1990 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 2004 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Month

  11. IESW054 Total Diversions(Richfield) Diversion (1,000 ac-ft) Water Year 0 1928 1940 1950 10 1960 1970 20 1980 1990 30 2004 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Month

  12. IESW054 Total Returns(Richfield) Return (1,000 ac-ft) Water Year 0 1928 1940 1950 1960 5 1970 1980 10 1990 20 2004 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Month

  13. Cumulative Return vs. Cumulative DiversionIESW054 (Richfield)

  14. What Caused the Change? • Change in slope of cumulative plots • Possibly related to conversion to sprinklers • Calibration data shows percentage these increases: • IESW007 – May 1980 to May 2002 sprinkler % increased from 14.7% to 28.0%(13% increase) • IESW054 – May 1980 to May 2002 sprinkler % increased from 31.9% to 59.7% (28% increase) • Aerial photography covering the area encompassed by both entities has been requested for 1969 and 1977

  15. Regression Analysis • A regression analysis was performed on each set of data (1928-1950, 1951-1970, etc) • P-values were found for each intercept and slope (95% confidence interval) • Given shared ranges between each set of data, a general equation may describe both entities (IESW007 and IESW054)

  16. IESW007 Intercepts and Slopes(Based on 95% CI) Shared intercept range: -3.76 to -3.67 Shared slope range: 0.0173 to 0.0235 y = 0.02x – 3.70

  17. IESW054 Intercepts and Slopes(Based on 95% CI) No shared slope range between all sets; 1981-2004 slope is negative Shared slope range: 0.170 to 0.177 y = 0.17x - ???

  18. Ongoing Snake River Return Data • Group data for 2002-2006 were compared to IESW007 and IESW054 • Plotted returns vs. diversions • Plotted returns vs. normalized diversion (Normalized diversion = diversion/max diversion of single entity) • Plotted normalized returns vs. normalized diversions

  19. Returns vs. Diversions for Separate Entities

  20. Returns vs. Normalized Diversion

  21. Conclusions • Current technique of assuming straight line plot with zero intercept may still be best (Returns = b1*Diversions) • Slope (b1) based on historical data OR lag factors (depends on which is available) • Slope may be better estimated with inclusion of latest data

  22. Discussion

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