1 / 17

Situation and Outlook for the 2013/14 Florida Citrus Season December forecast

Situation and Outlook for the 2013/14 Florida Citrus Season December forecast. FCM Board Meeting january 8, 2014. Florida orange crop, 2013-14 . December forecast. Factors of production Utilization and Juice Imports Juice supply, availability, movement and inventory

ovid
Download Presentation

Situation and Outlook for the 2013/14 Florida Citrus Season December forecast

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Situation and Outlook for the 2013/14 Florida Citrus SeasonDecember forecast FCM Board Meeting january 8, 2014

  2. Florida orange crop, 2013-14.December forecast Factors of production Utilization and Juice Imports Juice supply, availability, movement and inventory Retail sales and per capita consumption

  3. Nursery Propagations Source: FDACS, Budwood Annual Reports.

  4. Orange Bearing Tree InventoryFDACS/FASS. Florida Citrus Statistics, 2012-13.

  5. Factors of production Source: FDACS/nass reports.

  6. Florida Orange Crop Utilization(1,000,000 boxes) • NFC needs are basically fixed for relevant crop sizes. The residual market is FCOJ.

  7. US Orange Juice ImportsOctober through september • Brazilian prices need to have duties added, whereas ‘Others’ (Mexico and Costa Rica) do not. • FCOJ beginning inventory is priced ~$1.40/ssg! Source: US Dept of Commerce.

  8. US Orange Juice ImportsOctober 2013 • Concentrate prices are $.10 per gallon higher than where they closed in 2012/13. • Brazilian NFC prices are >$.20 per gallon higher. Source: US Dept of Commerce.

  9. FL OJ Availability, Movement & InventoryCurrent Season Forecast vs year ago After 12 wks -55.6% -33.5% -12.5% 11.2% -22.1% -72.1% -2.3% -0.2% Source: FDOC Processor Statistics Reports.

  10. US Retail Orange Juice Sales – All Categories FDM plus Walmart In 2003/04, Branded Recon comprised 17% of all retail sales, equivalent of 23mm boxes. The pace for 2013/14 equates to 11%, or 7mm boxes.

  11. Retail Orange Juice SalesBy Category: Importance and STD % change RTS prices are lower than previous year, yet volume continues to trend downward for both nfc and recon. NFC revenues are lower for the first time since 2009-10. NFC comprises 59% of all retail volume and 68% of the revenue, where as. Recon RTS comprises 37% and 28%, respectively. Source: FDOC, Nielsen Retail Sales, Monthly Top-line Report, period ending 12/21/13.

  12. U.S. OJ Supply & Consumption

  13. Florida grapefruit crop, 2013-14.December Forecast Factors of production Utilization Juice supply, availability, movement and inventory

  14. Productivity Sub-Factors. Averages and deviations from the average.Source: FASS. Citrus Crop estimate Advisory Committee Report, September 19, 2013. USDA/NASS Citrus Crop Estimates.

  15. Florida Grapefruit Crop Utilization(1,000,000 boxes) • NFC needs are basically fixed for relevant crop sizes. The residual market is FCGJ.

  16. FL GJ Availability, Movement & InventoryCurrent Season forecast versus year ago After 12 wks -38% -14.9% -13.5% 49% -20.2% 7.1% Source: FDOC Processor Statistics Reports. EMRA Forecasts for 2013-14, 12/2/13.

  17. Thank you!

More Related