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Ongoing Developments In Weather Forecasting System In India Meteorological Department

Ongoing Developments In Weather Forecasting System In India Meteorological Department. S.R. Kalsi. INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT NEW DELHI. OUTLINE. Conventional Observational Networks Radar & Satellite Systems Forecast System Warning Dissemination Systems Future Plans.

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Ongoing Developments In Weather Forecasting System In India Meteorological Department

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  1. Ongoing Developments In Weather Forecasting System In India Meteorological Department S.R. Kalsi INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT NEW DELHI

  2. OUTLINE • Conventional Observational Networks • Radar & Satellite Systems • Forecast System • Warning Dissemination Systems • Future Plans

  3. IMD’S OBSERVATIONAL NETWORK SURFACE OBSERVATORIES 556 HWSRs 20 UPPER AIR OBSERVATORIES 110 S-BAND CONVENTIONAL RADARS 8 DOPPLER WEATHER RADARS 4 INSAT-2E/METSAT/NOAA/METEOSAT SATELLITES SHIPS OF INDIAN VOLUNTARY OBSERVING FLEET 207 BUOYS 13

  4. Surface Observations

  5. Upper Air Network Pilot Balloon Radiosonde

  6. Radar Network X-Band Radars Thunderstorm warning S-Band Radars Cyclone warning

  7. Vertical profile of Max(Z)_29May2002 • Vertical extent of clouds have crossed well beyond 18km. • Reflectivity of more than 58dBZ was seen from 0804 to 1015UTC.

  8. Numerical Models in IMD

  9. Tropical Cyclone Forecasting & Warnings • IMD’s Radar network and satellite monitoring are such that no Cyclone can go undetected • Cyclone Warnings are issued in Four Stages right from its early formation till its dissipation • IMD’s cyclone warning system is equivalent to that of any TC warning Centre in the world. • TC warnings are issued to Central/State/District level authorities, Public (through Media), Ports/shipping, Fisheries, Road/Railway transports, Aviation, Industries, etc. • Recent advancements have brought down the 24 forecast errors to less than 150 km. Concerted efforts are on to reduce the errors further.

  10. Record Rainstorm in Bombay 26 July, 2005 Tulsi Lake (60) Thane (74) Vihar Lake (104) Bhandup (81) Santacruz (94) Dharavi (49) Colaba (7)

  11. 26 July, 2005 (09 UTC)

  12. R 18 N 16 N 14 N 12 N 10 N

  13. Dissemination of Warnings • Radio, Television, Print Media, Telephone, Fax, Telex, Telegrams, Police Wireless. • IMD Website : http://www.imd.ernet.in • IMDRAS workstations using “World Space” technology are being introduced • Cyclone Warning Dissemination System (CWDS) 250 Analog 100 Digital

  14. FUTURE PLANS MAJOR NEW INITIATIVES

  15. Observational Network • IMD has drawn plans to upgrade and strengthen its observation network in the coming years. • Nation wide network of Automatic weather Stations • (AWS) with spatial resolution of 50km • Nation wide Doppler Weather Radar network

  16. New Observations • The salient features are • To install 4000 Satellite based Automatic Rain gauge station • To install1000 Satellite based Automatic Weather Surface Stations • To replace existing S-band Cyclone Detection Radars by Doppler Weather Radar • 50 Storm detection radars (X-band) • 52 upper-air (RS/RW) stations • 45 Wind Profilers • Strengthening of environmental monitoring stations • Augmentation of earthquake monitoring Units • Strengthening of radiation monitoring network

  17. PROPOSED DOPPLER WEATHER RADARS NETWORK OF DOPPLER WX RADARS

  18. SRINAGAR 37 Nos. UPPER AIR STATIONS • UPPER AIR STATIONS PATIALA NEW DELHI LUCKNOW MOHANBARI GORAKHPUR JODHPUR SILIGURI GWALIOR GUWAHATI PATNA • AGARTALA RANCHI BHOPAL AHMEDABAD KOLKATA • • To equip 5 stations with imported GPS Sonde and continue development of indegenous Sonde RAIPUR NAGPUR RSRW MULTIMET SAMEER IMS BHUVANESHWAR • MUMBAI AURANGABAD JAGDALPUR VISHAKHAPATNAM HYDERABAD MACHLIPATNAM GOA • MANGALORE BANGALORE CHENNAI PORT BLAIR AMINI KARAIKAL COCHIN MINIICOY THIRUVANANTHAPURAM

  19. 62 Nos. PILOT BALLOON STATIONS • • PILOT BALLOON STATIONS • • • • • Supplement with 5 Wind Profilers and assess the impact of their induction

  20. Weather Forecasting • Implementation of High resolution forecast models • Extended Range Forecast System (ERFS) for Climate Risk Management in Agriculture • 500District-wise Information Centres

  21. NUMERICAL MODELS (2005-2010) • Data Assimilation System : 3D VAR ( Global & Regional AWS and Satellite data) • Global Model : To run upto 72 hours for regional model boundary conditions (Daily two runs) Res. T256 • Meso-scale model (00, 06, 12 & 18 UTC initial conditions) for RSMC domain 30S – 50N / • 25E – 130E) Res. 0.50 • Local Weather Forecast at Res. 0.250 • Cyclone Model for Track Prediction at 10 kms • Storm Surge Model.

  22. EARLY WARNING DISSEMINATION SYSTEM • An Integrated System for all weather hazards and Tsunamis. • Issues to address – User Requirements, Timelines, Contents (Text and Visuals), Language, Uncertainties. • Dissemination - Through Digital CWDS Systems with • Centralized Uplink at Delhi + One Standby uplink at Chennai. • 8 Control Rooms at Warning Centres with Workstations to generate Warning Text, Remotely activate Uplink through VSAT’s. • 1000 receivers in disaster prone areas with Siren, Voice announcement, PC/FAX connectivity for text messages, acknowledge transmitter, in-built key pad for short message transmission. • 128Kbps data transfer rate. • solar powered battery back-up.

  23. Collaborative Programmes • National Organisations: NCMRWF, IITM, IIT Delhi, IISc, IAF, Indian Navy, DAC, SASE (DRDO) etc. • International Organisations: • WMO/ESCAP, SAARC • World Bank Assistance Programme • UKMO, FSU, IRI, NCEP • USAID Programme • IMD-SMRC on Development of Cyclone Track Prediction Model

  24. CONCLUSIONS IMD has the capacity to monitor and forecast Large scale features very well through the existing infrastructure To improve nowcasting/very short range forecasting of meso scale events India needs the following :- Automatic Rain gauges – 4000 Nos. Automatic Weather Stations -1000 Nos, - part time stations to be converted on higher priority Doppler weather radars: 57 to be provided (existing 4) 4 more being planed for procurement (2 indigenous + 2 imported) Wind Profiler – 5 Nos - in pilot phase To equip at least 5 upper air stations with imported state-of-the-art sonde till improvement of indegeneous sonde. -Immediate action to be started by IMD Acquisition and deployment of high power computing platform for running operational Global, Regional & Mesoscale models. A proposal for seeking the Govt.’s approval is being pursued vigorously.

  25. Thanks !!

  26. 26 July, 2005 (12 UTC)

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