Conference of European Statisticians Seminar: Impact of the Global Crisis on Statistical Systems

1. Conference of European StatisticiansSeminar: Impact of the Global Crisis on Statistical Systems Session 1: Financial statistics, balance sheets and cross-border linkages Paris, June 10, 2010

2. Introduction Background • The seminar on impact of the global financial crisis on official statistics is highly topical. • A report on the financial crisis and information gaps was presented to the meeting of the G-20 finance ministers and central bank governors last weekend. • Three topics are covered in the seminar on which the crisis has thrown a spotlight: • First, on economic and financial statistics • Second, on communication and timeliness • Third, on social and household statistics • The objective of the seminar to inform the work of both national and international agencies as they adapt priorities in response to the crisis

3. Introduction Papers • For session 1 there are three invited papers: United States: J.StevenLandefeld and ShaundaVillones The Financial Crisis and the need for better data World Trade Organization: Marc Auboin, Hubert Escaith and Andreas Maurer Trade collapse, Data Gaps and the impact of the financial crisis on official statistics Statistics Norway: WencheLoven and Pål Martin Vinghøg Public Finance and the financial crisis: What role should the statisticians and the NSOs play?

4. Introduction Program 10.00 – 10.20 : Overview Introducing the papers Broad themes Questions for authors 10.20 – 10.35: Replies by invited authors 10.35 – 11.05: General discussion 11.05 – 11.10: Short summary

5. Introducing the papers Key statements • United States “Good statistics play a key role in forming public policy by publicly highlighting the magnitude of emerging problems and aid in the building of public consensus about the need for action.” • World Trade Organization “It is important to make official statistics a robust system that can incorporate multi-dimensional changes in a constantly developing societal and economic environment, and extract meaningful and understandable signals out of them.”

6. Introducing the papers Key statements • Norway “We believe that that transparency in government operations and the quality of GFS is dependant on reliable fiscal information from the government agencies and that the responsibility for providing such lies primarily with the financial authorities…..it should be the role and the responsibility of the NOSs to compile GFS according to internationally agreed principles.” “where (government) transactions are incorrectly entered into the National Accounts statistics it is the responsibility of Eurostat to point these out to the NSOs.”

7. Broad Themes • Three broad issues emerge from the papers: 1. The presentation of statistics: this issue is also the subject of the next session. • The US paper in particular highlights this issue, presenting available data in graph format to illustrate the build-of vulnerabilities before the crisis. The WTO paper speaks of statistics producers going the “extra mile” and providing stories alongside the data. • The US paper also highlights the pitfalls of analyzing aggregated data; the WTO paper too speaks of the “appetite” of users for more disaggregated data.

8. Broad Themes 2. Identifying and addressing new data needs arising from the crisis. • The WTO paper provides examples of structural change in trade related data - growth of intra-firm trade and different forms of trade credit – not well covered but increasingly important. • This point has a general application as is evident from the G20 report on the financial crisis and information gaps: markets evolve and official statistics take time to catch up. • The WTO paper warns against “the over-supply of data … that blur the underlying trend” but also notes “exponentially” increase in the demand for high frequency trade data during the crisis.

9. Broad Themes • The joint responsibility for official statistics: • All three papers touch on this question, but notably the Norwegian paper. As noted above in the key statements, this paper considers that international agencies, financial authorities, and the NSO all have responsibilities. • The US paper speaks of the benefits of a set of accounts that integrates information both from the BEA and Federal Reserve; and the WTO paper speaks of numerous different data sources for trade related data.

10. Broad Themes • This leads to a range of interesting questions: • What is the relationship between analysts (public and private) and official statisticians in presenting and analyzing data? Post a crisis, the available data looks more damming because the outcomes are known and the focus is on the “right” data. But pre-crisis, attention may be elsewhere. • Will the creation of macro-financial stability oversight units help statisticians in this regard by focusing attention on a “new” policy objective. • How influenced to the needs of policy analysts should NSOs be in the presentation of data?

11. Broad Themes • Can statisticians better monitor and respond to structural changes in markets? Does there need to be a crisis to persuade data suppliers and users of the need for new or enhanced data sets? • How can statisticians navigate between the dangers of the “over-supply” of data in “normal times” (including the burden on the supplier) and the urgent needs for data in a crisis? • How should NSOs go about promoting the availability of more disaggregated data?

12. Broad Themes • What are the views on the extent to which there is a shared responsibility among supplier, the compiler (s) and/or the international agencies for good quality and comprehensive economic and financial data.

13. Questions United States • The paper sets out a number of graphs that provide good illustrations of the build-up of vulnerabilities before the crisis. Going forward, is the intention for the BEA to be more “proactive” in highlighting the trends and ratios evident in, but not typically publicized, official statistics? • The paper notes that some important trends were missed because the “data were too aggregated.” What plans has BEA got to promote disaggregated data?

14. Questions WTO • Clearly in the crisis there was a strong demand for trade related data. But how should the statisticians navigate between the concern raised in the paper about an over-supply of data that blur the underlying trend and the need to strengthen trade related data? What are the priorities from your perspective? How can these priorities best be taken forward? • The paper speaks of the statisticians providing “stories” alongside the data. Could you expand more on your thinking?

15. Questions Norway • The paper speaks of the responsibilities of international agencies, financial authorities and NSOs. Could you please expand on your thinking, particularly with regard to the relative responsibilities of each? • The paper speaks of types of intervention by government. How best can NSOs ensure that they are kept informed of such developments and so they are treated consistent with international standards?

16. Thank you for your attention