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Natural Gas Demand Presentation by Mignon Marks, California Energy Commission. * Summary of demand chapter. * Plans for next report. Natural Gas Demand in the U.S. Natural Gas Demand in the Western U.S. Electricity Generation. All Other Sectors.
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Natural Gas Demand Presentation by Mignon Marks, California Energy Commission * Summary of demand chapter * Plans for next report
Natural Gas Demand in the Western U.S. Electricity Generation All Other Sectors
Key Assumptions —New Electricity Generation in the West • California-Mexico 18,206 MW • Southwest 13,268 MW • Northwest 9,667 MW • Rocky Mountains 5,041 MW
Projected California Gas Demand1997 — 2012 • Electricity generation 56% increase • Non-core customers 7% increase • Core customers 72% increase
Projected Gas Demand for Electricity Generation in California
Plans for Next Gas Forecasts • North American demand • Energy Information Administration’s 2002 data • California demand • Integrated Energy Policy Report • Posted February 11, 2003 • Workshop February 25, 2003 • Western U.S. electricity generation demand
Changing Assumptions • Substantial reductions for 2002-2005 • Most severe reductions outside California • Total new additions 20% drop for 2002-2012 • Renewable Portfolio Standard
Impacts of New Electricity Generators on Gas Demand • Initially, new units displace older, less efficient ones • Local requirements limit displacement • Gas-demand volumes unaffected by excess new generation • New capacity serves incremental load growth • Locations of new gas-fired units affect gas demand
Lowered Estimates of Gas-fired Additions in the WECC Region 2002-2012 (MW) -732 -2762 Canada 2002-2005 2002- 2012 -2924 Rocky Mountains -2789 +422 -2343 Pacific Northwest 2002- 2012 2002- 2005 2002-2005 2002-2012 -96 -2480 -1239 -3007 California 2002-2005 2002- 2012 Southwest Aug 2002 forecast Jan 2003 forecast 2002- 2012 2002- 2005