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Chapin White, PhD Center for Studying Health System Change Sept. 21, 2011 cwhite@ hschange.org The views expressed are my own and not those of the Center for Studying Health System Change, the Congressional Budget Office, or any other organization. Supply-side Modeling: A 3-step Program.
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Chapin White, PhD Center for Studying Health System Change Sept. 21, 2011 cwhite@hschange.org The views expressed are my own and not those of the Center for Studying Health System Change, the Congressional Budget Office, or any other organization. Supply-side Modeling:A 3-step Program
The World, pre-ACA Q, pre-ACA D Out-of-pocket P, pre-ACA Supply P, pre-ACA P
The World, post-ACA S? Q, post-ACA? Q, post-ACA? D Out-of-pocket P, post-ACA Out-of-pocket P, pre-ACA Supply P, pre-ACA Supply P, post-ACA P
Step 1: Admit You Have a Problem We don’t know the supply curve When supply and demand are pushed in different directions, which side wins?
Step 2: Why Do We Have this Problem? The siren song of RAND • gives exactly the right answer • but it’s the wrong question RAND supported one line of policymaking • patient cost sharing The action today is largely on the supply side
Step 3: The Way Forward Acknowledge that we have a problem -- Check Prioritize the HOBOD ($000b) parameters • hospital supply curve • post-acute supply curve • provider responses to bundling/capitation Short-term: Scavenge parameters, get closer to being approximately right Medium-term: Refine parameters Long-term: Collect data on supply side