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Water Supply Modeling

Water Supply Modeling. Analyzing the Effect of Water Supply Activities on Aquatic Life and Long-Term Water Availability. Why Do We Model Water Supply Activities?. Water is a renewable, but temporally finite resource It gets more scarce when we need it most!

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Water Supply Modeling

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  1. Water Supply Modeling Analyzing the Effect of Water Supply Activities on Aquatic Life and Long-Term Water Availability

  2. Why Do We Model Water Supply Activities? • Water is a renewable, but temporally finite resource • It gets more scarce when we need it most! • Water withdrawals (and discharges) effect aquatic life • Some folks refer to the Eastern US as “water rich” … but recent droughts have seen well failures, emergency water trestrictions and locatlities “trucking water in”

  3. Facts, Figures, Acronymns & Conversions • Facts: • Water supply modeling is a mass balance equation: • Qout = Qin + P + R – WD + PS • Figures: • Virginians currently use ~10% of annual stream flow • Virginians use > 50% of drought flows in some streams • Harmful effects of WD may be seen as soon as 20% • Acronyms: • Flow: cfs – Cubic Feet Per Second • Withdrawal: MGD – Million Gallons per Day • Storage: acft - acre-feet (foot of water on acre of land) • Conversions: • 1 MGD = 1.547 cfs

  4. How Do We Model Water Supply • Do Cumulative Impact Analysis • Withdrawals • Discharges • Impoundments • Consider Ecology: • IFIM • Flow-Ecology statistical modeling • Looking towards the future • Water Supply Planning reg requires localities to prepare 30-50 year water use projections • We have built a modeling system to look at all of it

  5. Our “Meta-Modeling” System • Integrates multiple sub-models • HSPF • GWLF • CBP Model (hspf based) • Remote data sources • USGS gages • NOAA rainfall • Online – web interface • Multi-user – collaborative

  6. What is a Cumulative Impact Analysis?

  7. Tools We Will Use • VWUDS Databases • VPDES Database • Water Supply Plans • VWP Permits • Web-Based Modeling System • Integrated into a “Conflict Signal Tool”

  8. What Kind of Comparisons do the Models Allow? “Pinch Points” or areas of potential conflict Changes to overall the Flow Regime Changes in Timing

  9. North Anna: Avoid Supply Impact / Maintain Habitat

  10. Rappahannock: Balancing Withdrawals Model with Flow-By and Storage Demonstrated Tight, but sustainable water budget Water Supply Plan info and permit info suggested serious conflict

  11. Pinch Points: How Will We Manage? Now Full Build-Out • Without new flow-by Rules, we definitely have adverse impact to off & on stream resources • Storage will probably be required to protect instream resources

  12. Why Do We Need You?? • Data Sharing is Quality Assurance • More eyes is better for debugging! • Flow Ecology • Data visualization inspiration is needed • We need sharp minds & alternative ideas • Exploring alternatives • The Eastern US is a Water Supply Analysis Desert • Train people to meet challenges of an uncertain future

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