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MBA Student Managed Fund Presentation

MBA Student Managed Fund Presentation. MBA Interim Report December 4 th 2009. Joseph Adomakoh Richard Bodio Udaya Cheetti Dominick Galletti Timothy Gilmore. Deon Goosen Jennifer Gorman Matthew Gyurko Charlie Murrin Xiuyun (Claudia) Shi. MBA Managers. Acknowledgements.

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MBA Student Managed Fund Presentation

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  1. MBA Student Managed Fund Presentation

    MBA Interim Report December 4th 2009
  2. Joseph Adomakoh Richard Bodio Udaya Cheetti Dominick Galletti Timothy Gilmore Deon Goosen Jennifer Gorman Matthew Gyurko Charlie Murrin Xiuyun (Claudia) Shi MBA Managers
  3. Acknowledgements The University of Connecticut Foundation, Inc. Investment Advisory Board IAB Mentors Tapan Roy Christopher Wilkos Dr. Chinmoy Ghosh
  4. Investment Philosophy Investment Process Economic Analysis Capital Allocation Fund Management Portfolio Analysis Going Forward Agenda
  5. Top down value focus Sector based approach Benchmark: S&P 500 Timeline: 5-7 years Investment Philosophy
  6. Investment decisions made after: Economic Analysis Sector Analysis Individual Security Analysis Qualitative and Quantitative analysis Intrinsic Value Target: 15% discount Resources Standard & Poor's NetAdvantage ValueLine Investment Survey Thomson One Banker Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Investment Process

  7. ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

  8. Inflation Unemployment Consumer Confidence US Dollar Value GDP Growth Interest Rates Economic Focus
  9. Inflation Data from Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
  10. CPI really an energy story Excluding energy, CPI is normal Inflation Data from the St. Louis Federal Reserve
  11. Unemployment is 10.2% in Oct 2009 Manufacturing and retail sector still shedding jobs Lack of increase in average work week hours Increasing trend in temporary services Unemployment
  12. Consumer Confidence Consumer confidence was at 110 in 2007, currently at 47.7 in 2009 Negatively correlated to unemployment Will not improve until unemployment improves
  13. US dollar negatively correlated with S&P 500 Value now at pre-crisis levels Fiscal policy will dictate dollar valuation US Dollar Value
  14. GDP Growth Forecasts next year 4% growth – Deutsche Bank 3% growth – Bank Of America We forecast 1%-2% increase in real GDP 2%-3.5% in nominal GDP
  15. Current FFR Target of .25%; 10 year T-Note yield of 3.37% Treasury auctions strong; secondary market is very active Inflation remains low (T-note-TIPS implies 1.2-1.3%) Companies taking advantage of low cost of debt capital Interest Rates

  16. CAPITAL ALLOCATION

  17. Capital Allocation
  18. Overweight Sectors Consumer Staples Industrials Materials Technology Utilities
  19. Underweight Sectors Consumer Discretionary Healthcare Telecom

  20. FUND MANAGEMENT

  21. Stop Loss 11% on all positions Re-evaluation of positions Depreciates more than 7% Appreciates more than 10% Protection Strategy
  22. Bond Strategy Corporate Bonds Overpriced corporate high yield bonds Mismatch between yields and risks Treasury Bonds Poor yields on Treasury bonds Municipal Bonds No tax advantages

  23. PORTFOLIO ANALYSIS

  24. Qualitative Analysis Business Model Value addition to Investors Diversification of Operations Quantitative Analysis Discounted Cash Flow ROE, ROA P/E, P/S, PEG Debt/Equity Operating Margins Individual Stock Analysis
  25. Current Holdings
  26. Portfolio Performance
  27. Portfolio Performance Highlights Best Performances American Electric Power McDonalds Watson Pharmaceutical PepsiCo Weak Performers CVS Noble Corporation Elbit System Travelers
  28. Key Portfolio Statistics Beta: 0.72 Alpha: -0.05% Sharpe Ratio: 0.06 Standard Deviation: 1.00%

  29. GOING FORWARD

  30. Going Forward Constantly monitor the portfolio Identify portfolio manager Develop optimal portfolio Invest in 10-15 more positions Possible investment in bonds
  31. Our Takeaways What have we learned? Importance of earnings calls Improved analysis skills Lessons in overall management Ongoing Questions When is the right time to get into a sector? How do you appropriately value management?

  32. Q & A

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