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Douglas Economic Outlook

Douglas Economic Outlook. 2013. National Economy. Slow recovery continues 2008-2009: 8.7 million jobs lost 2010-2013 (Aug): 6.8 million jobs gained GDP up 16 consecutive quarters Some positive signs (housing, labor market, consumer confidence and spending)

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Douglas Economic Outlook

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  1. Douglas Economic Outlook 2013

  2. National Economy • Slow recovery continues • 2008-2009: 8.7 million jobs lost • 2010-2013 (Aug): 6.8 million jobs gained • GDP up 16 consecutive quarters • Some positive signs (housing, labor market, consumer confidence and spending) • Fiscal policy/budget cuts remain a threat • Monetary policy/interest rates supportive of growth

  3. Arizona Economy

  4. Douglas & Cochise County Local Economy

  5. Population Projections

  6. Retail Sales Growth Inflation adjusted; compared to same month previous year

  7. Retail Sales

  8. Restaurant and Bar Sales Growth Inflation adjusted; compared to same month previous year

  9. Restaurant and Bar Sales Growth

  10. Accommodation Sales Growth Inflation adjusted; compared to same month previous year

  11. Accommodation Sales

  12. Sales Outlook • Countywide retail on rebound, but defense cuts threaten • Countywide hospitality will continue to struggle, particularly accommodation • Douglas retail uncertain • Douglas restaurant and bar modest growth; accommodation still struggling • SENTRI lane/border protection/border crossings should help Douglas retail and restaurant/bar

  13. Unemployment * Jan-Jul only; seasonally adjusted

  14. Unemployment (Monthly)

  15. Nonfarm Job Growth (Cochise County) Compared to same month previous year

  16. Job Gains/Losses (Cochise County) 12 months ended Jul 2013

  17. Job Gains/Losses % (Cochise County) 12 months ended Jul 2013

  18. Employment Outlook • National and state labor market improving • Government job losses (Fort Huachuca and state/local) pose threat to county • Border security deal may boost federal employment • SENTRI lane/border crossings should help retail/restaurant and bar jobs

  19. New Home Construction SFR Permits

  20. Home Sales MLS only

  21. Home Prices Median Price * 1st half only

  22. Outlook • New residential construction stalled due to competition from foreclosures • Existing home sales volume given boost from foreclosures/lower prices

  23. Conclusion • National economy continued slow recovery • State economy improving • County • Defense budget cuts • Border security deal may help • Douglas • SENTRIlane/border security deal may help • Border port expansion

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