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Climate Information & Decision Support Systems

Climate Information & Decision Support Systems. Clyde Fraisse Agricultural & Biological Engineering. Dual-purpose of Climate DSS. Service. Education. C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS. Education Components. Drivers of climate variability and change (ENSO, long-term climate projections)

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Climate Information & Decision Support Systems

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  1. Climate Information & Decision Support Systems Clyde Fraisse Agricultural & Biological Engineering

  2. Dual-purpose of Climate DSS Service Education C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS

  3. Education Components • Drivers of climate variability and change (ENSO, long-term climate projections) • Effects and potential implications on the SE Climate and worldwide • Impacts of variability/change on agricultural commodities and water resources • Risk mitigation and adaptation strategies • Improve resource use efficiency (irrigation management, carbon& water footprints) How cover crops, pasture-based rotation systems, variable rate irrigation help mitigating climate-related risk? C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS

  4. Service Components NOAA monitors the Pacific Ocean but UF-IFAS monitors your field! • Climate monitoring • Short-term and seasonal forecasts • Translation to ag-related variables (Degree-days, chill hours, crop yield) • Alert systems (freezes, disease risk) C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS

  5. Our top challenge is to translate climate information into decisions Flooded peanut field. Doug Mayo – August 2013. Blueberry freeze, UF-IFAS, February 2002. C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS

  6. Our top challenge is to translate climate information into decisions C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS

  7. Our VERY top challenge is to translate climate change projections into decisions Making *decisions based on long-term climate projections is much more difficult! One of the main reasons for extension faculty to be reluctant about addressing climate change issues is the lack of “practical solutions” * Decisions at the producer level, not in terms of national policy and long-term planning C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS

  8. Our VERY top challenge is to translate climate change projections into decisions Making *decisions based on long-term climate projections is much more difficult! One of the main reasons for extension faculty to be reluctant about addressing climate change issues is the lack of “practical solutions” * Decisions at the producer level, not in terms of national or regional planning C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS

  9. Dual-Purpose of Climate DSS – Our Vision Education Should we concentrate efforts here? Priority / Intensity Service Short-term forecast Decadal Climate Monitoring Seasonal Long-term climate projection Timeframe Fraisse et al. 2014. Dual-purpose of climate DSS (in preparation). C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS

  10. Different Perspectives of the Same Problem Web-based DSS Intensity Smartphones Short-term forecast Decadal Climate Monitoring Seasonal Long-term climate projection Timeframe C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS

  11. HOME TOOLS FORECASTS STATE SUMMARIES MANAGEMENT CLIMATE EXTENSION ABOUT

  12. C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS

  13. Examples of questions that AgroClimate can help answering • Effects of the El Niño Southern Oscillation in our climate? • Levels of water stress in the SE? • Typical carbon footprint of corn produced in the SE USA? • Current strawberry disease risk? Should I apply fungicide? • Best peanut planting dates during La Niña years (water stress)? C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS

  14. C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS

  15. AgroClimate tools: Climate anomaly maps C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS

  16. AgroClimate tools: Climate anomaly maps C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS

  17. AgroClimate tools: Climate anomaly maps C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS

  18. AgroClimate tools: Climate Risk C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS

  19. AgroClimate tools: Climate Risk – Average rainfall – El Niño years C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS

  20. AgroClimate tools: Climate Risk – Deviation from long-term average – El Niño years C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS

  21. AgroClimate tools: Climate Risk – Deviation from long-term average La Niña years C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS

  22. AgroClimate tools: Climate Risk – Probability distribution – Rainfall La Niña years C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS

  23. AgroClimate tools: Climate Risk – Probability of exceedance – Rainfall La Niña years 37% C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS

  24. AgroClimate tools: Climate Risk – Probability of exceedance – Rainfall La Niña years 63% C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS

  25. AgroClimate tools: Climate Risk – Rainfall, current year C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS

  26. AgroClimate tools: Climate Risk – Rainfall, last 5 years C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS

  27. ENSO Impacts La Niña El Niño Number of days with moderate or high Botrytis risk in Plant City, FL Chill accumulation (hours per season), Marion County, FL. C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS

  28. AgroClimate tools: ARID - Agricultural Reference Index for Drought C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS

  29. AgroClimate tools: ARID - Agricultural Reference Index for Drought C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS

  30. AgroClimate tools: Carbon footprint calculator - Strawberry AgroClimate tools: ARID - Agricultural Reference Index for Drought C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS

  31. AgroClimate tools: Strawberry Advisory System C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS

  32. AgroClimate tools: Strawberry Advisory System C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS

  33. AgroClimate tools: Strawberry Advisory System C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS

  34. SAS App • Monitors infection risk for Anthracnose and Botrytis fruit rot • Users receive notification messages when the model detects a potential infection risk according to observed weather conditions.

  35. Weather and crop monitoring Strawberry disease alert Available October 2014 C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS

  36. Weather and crop monitoring Strawberry disease alert Available October 2014 C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS

  37. Weather and crop monitoring Strawberry disease alert Available October 2014 C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS

  38. Weather and crop monitoring Strawberry disease alert Available October 2014 C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS

  39. Weather and crop monitoring Strawberry disease alert Available October 2014 C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS

  40. SAS – Behind the DSS C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS

  41. AgroClimate Management: Conservatoin Tillage C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS

  42. Thank you! Interested in organizing an AgroClimate workshop in your area? Clyde Fraisse Agricultural & Biological Engineering University of Florida – IFAS 352-392-1864 ext 271 cfraisse@ufl.edu

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