Future Fuel Technology Scenario and Roadmapping for Asia-Pacific

1. Second International Seville Seminar on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA): Impacts on policy and decision making28th- 29th September 2006 Future Fuel Technology Scenario and Roadmapping for Asia-Pacific Nares Damrongchai and Greg Tegart APEC Center for Technology Foresight

2. Background Typical infrastructure lifetimes, which are a factor in the rate at which new technologies enter the economy Source: Facts and Trends to 2050 – energy and climate change, WBCSD

3. Background The Hubbert Peak according to ASPO

4. Background Different scenarios on oil depletion

5. Background Changes in our atmosphere are already underway

6. Introduction Foresighting Future Fuel Technology – the project • A project of the APEC Industrial Science and Technology Working Group (ISTWG) in collaboration with the APEC Energy Working Group • Proposed by the APEC Center for Technology Foresight, with co-ownership and strong support from • National Metal and Materials Technology Center (MTEC), Thailand • Industrial Technology Research Institute (ITRI), Chinese Taipei • Bureau of Energy, Chinese Taipei • Office of National Science Advisor, Canada • Industry Canada • National Institute of Science and Technology Policy (NISTEP), Japan

7. Introduction Scope and focus • An APEC-wide foresight project covering the whole Asia-Pacific region • To examine rapidly emerging technologies for fuel for transportation and stationary energy production • Hydrogen • biofuels • conventional and unconventional hydrocarbons • Vision stretching to 2030

8. Introduction The Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) region

9. Project overview • Possible and plausible future events • Core information • Plausible pathways • Technological gaps • Aiming for energy security goals Scenarios (vision & goals) Technology roadmaps (robust options & linkages) Final symposium (public consultation) methodology Krabi Vancouver PingTung Chiangmai timeline 2004 2005 2006 Economy-level implementation Recommendations for APEC outcomes

10. Web-based surveyto gather initial information and provoke interest among experts to participate in the process Position Paperswritten and posted on website Scenario 2030 Workshop56 expertsfrom 11 economies gathered in Krabi, Thailand during Dec 13-15, 2004 to examine the issues and highlight R&D need, government policies and actions through scenario writing process Implementation – Stage 1

11. Technology Roadmaps (TRMs)derived from the Scenario 2030 Workshop to demonstrate pathways that APEC members can cooperate for possible fuel development in the APEC region. The TRM Workshops were held in: Vancouver, Canada in 27-29 April 2005 (57 experts, 10 economies) Pingtung, Chinese Taipei in 10-12 August 2005 (48 experts, 11 economies) Market Pull Technology push Implementation – Stage 2 Now Future

12. Covers all dimensions of fuel Trends and Drivers Barriers (system/ infrastructure/technology) Process and Products Resources needed Relevance of individual fuel roadmaps with each other Linkages Integrations biofuels Market Pull Market Pull Technology push Technology push Market Pull Unconventional hydrocarbons Hydrogen Technology push Implementation – Stage 2 The Future Fuel TRM Architecture Supra-economy & intergovernmental

13. 2020 2005 2010 2030 LIQUID FUELS (conventional oil bitumen and heavy oil) GAS FUELS Transportation Hydrogen Biofuels GTL CG Electricity And Heat NG OIL BIOMASS Electricity and Heat from renewable and gas fuels Stationary Renewable and Alternate LNG Coal Gasification Coal bed methane Gas Hydrates Implementation – Stage 2 The Integrated Future Fuel Roadmap

14. Clean coal technology (China) Flexible fuel car/electric car (USA/Australia) Fuel processing and reforming technology for practical fuels to hydrogen for fuel cell application (Thailand, China etc.) Storage technology e.g. battery (Thailand, C. Taipei) (Companies’) proprietary technologies could be an issue to overcome Cellulosic technology (biotechnology) for ethanol (Canada) Database and Inventory (Australia) Int’l study on drivers for acceptance of ethanol fuel (Australia) H2 code and standard, energy efficiency standard Harmonization of fuel biodiesel specification (Thailand, with EWG) Implementation and Facilitation Assistance Team (IFAT) within APEC EWG e.g. on nuclear power Standardization of fuel related-terminology Demand forecast, life cycle analysis (USA) Solar energy TRM (Thailand, Chinese Taipei, etc) Establish fuel blending strategy (USA) National-level technology roadmap for biofuels (Thailand, by MTEC) Post-foresight continuing engagement Collaborative projects   

15. The importance of some sort of “urgency” Social infrastructure (the networks) High-level commitment Involvement of decision-makers throughout the process Visioning and goal setting Integration into broader policy strategy Clear link to decision makers Possibilities for iterations should be investigated Oblication to monitor the implementation and to evaluate the outcomes, uptake and impacts Lessons learned Key success factors and cautions • APEC Center for Technology Foresight • Email: apectf@nstda.or.th • URL: http://www.apecforesight.org