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Thanks! And Think BIG! The view from an admirer…

Thanks! And Think BIG! The view from an admirer…. John Wiener Presentation to the ARKANSAS BASIN ROUNDTABLE 09 October 13 john.wiener@colorado.edu www.colorado.edu / ibs / eb /wiener/. A Look Back – Wow!.

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Thanks! And Think BIG! The view from an admirer…

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  1. Thanks! And Think BIG!The view from an admirer… John Wiener Presentation to the ARKANSAS BASIN ROUNDTABLE 09 October 13 john.wiener@colorado.edu www.colorado.edu/ibs/eb/wiener/

  2. A Look Back – Wow! 1997 – My first look, asking people about when they make what decisions, and how weather and climate info might help Water sharing? When to make deals… “Can’t work!” Said the folks now making it work! The Drought, the Lower Ark, the Highline Lease, the SWSI, the Water Bank Sorta-try, the SuperDitch… And the Water Transfers Guidelines Committee And the Ark Needs Assessments! Wow!

  3. GOOD NEWS! The Palmer Land Trust Plan – Found Great Resource Values Great Human Values But, does it go far enough? Great for pieces… How far can the Valley go? HOW CAN VALLEY FARMING STAY VIABLE, PROFITABLE, AND SAFE FROM OUTSIDE PRESSURES?

  4. BAD NEWS FROM BIG AG: EROSION has Big impacts! Craig Cox*, Andrew Hug, and Nils Bruzelius, 2011, Losing Ground*Director of Soil and Water Conservation Society for many years SEE NEW USDA CLIMATE CHANGE AND U.S. AGRICULTURE, 2012; TECH. INFO. BULLETIN NO. 1935, WALTHALL ET AL. Soil erosion is likely considerably worse than had been estimated

  5. Back to pre-emergent herbicides, post-emergents…. AND Tillage… “Stay with the package” But make the package more complicated… And, see National Research Council, 2012c, National Summit on Strategies to Manage Herbicide-Resistant Weeds: Proceedings of a Symposium. Washington, D.C.: National Academies Press. (Free on-line as all NRC reports)

  6. Big Vs Small US Farming: Two Sets of Problems • For the Big conventional Ag: Sustainability Doubtful… • Erosion of soil, soil quality losses already very serious! • Herbicide and other resistance evolving fast; no till at risk! • Input prices out of control, net being squeezed, “treadmill” • Water quality worsening with more corn, new land in crops? • “THE SMOKING GUN”: 25 years (1982-2007) : same # acres but 22% are not the same acres! DISPLACEMENT FROM BEST LAND onto lower quality… and now, very rapid “sod-busting” again • FOR EVERYONE: CLIMATE VARIATION AND CHANGE – higher intensity precipitation events, more frequent extremes with cumulative impacts… destructive sequences… • For the small operations with 60% of US Farmland but only 16% of sales… and 7% of net farm income: HIGH VULNERABILITY • Urbanization, rural residential development – tremendous land loss! • Inability to finance resilience to climate and “markets”!

  7. Keeping Water in Valley Ag is NBNS(Necessary But Not Sufficient) • Better water management possible • PARTICIPATION, PARTNERSHIPS… • COST COMPARISONS needed, short-term • GOALS and VALUES needed, long-term • LONG-TERM FINANCING – Cities have some… • ARK BRT LEADING in Better transfers • But FUTURE VALUE OF HIGH QUALITY IRRIGATED LAND NEAR MARKETS IS GOING TO BE MUCH HIGHER(see notes) • HOW CAN COLORADO IRRIGATED FARMING KEEP THE LAND AND THE WATER AND KEEP CHOICES OPEN?

  8. THREE FUNDAMENTALS from the science: Work for NETyield (not the same as maximum output, but best return on investment of inputs)… and the LONG planning horizon! THINK GRANDCHILDREN RIGHT-SIZING – best scale for a given combination of operations – economies of scale can be by groups AND WORKING WITH NATURE – combine sets of right-sized operations, resources, and projects to achieve higher levels of resilience… (e.g., sets of renewable energy sources and scales of farms and cooperating groups of farms and ranches). (long note!)

  9. Thinking out of the farm-scale box • My argument: farmers and ranchers need to use all their assets, with water as key, AND… • Re-Think at the landscape scale – diversify, get off the treadmill, and “close the loops” of nutrient flows… get past failing alone. • Cities and water managers can be vital partners • Where states don’t act or are self-crippled • Citizens have far wider interests than water rates • Water supplier foresight! They plan far ahead • And cities have cheaper long-term capital • WHY is food supply and source so fragile?

  10. This is the year after the 2002 Drought We used this data set for analysis because it is public information not used for taxation BRASS TACKS! HOW ABOUT A BIGGER MENU FOR THE BESSEMER DITCH? Note: areas north of the Arkansas River are not irrigated by the Bessemer

  11. Note: areas north of the Arkansas River are not irrigated by the Bessemer Here’s one view of the irrigation in use in 2003… from CDSS

  12. Nobody in the driver’s seat… this is “development” of some of the best farm land in the US

  13. http://www.colorado.edu/ibs/eb/wiener/illustrations/BessemerArkansasIllustrations/BessemerBlendeFormerFarmlandDSC_0569_1811.JPGhttp://www.colorado.edu/ibs/eb/wiener/illustrations/BessemerArkansasIllustrations/BessemerBlendeFormerFarmlandDSC_0569_1811.JPG County Farm Road, over in Blende area east side… losing ground…

  14. http://www.colorado.edu/ibs/eb/wiener/illustrations/BessemerArkansasIllustrations/BessemerBlendeAlfalfaHerbicideVsNeighborsDSC_0598_1834.JPG.JPGhttp://www.colorado.edu/ibs/eb/wiener/illustrations/BessemerArkansasIllustrations/BessemerBlendeAlfalfaHerbicideVsNeighborsDSC_0598_1834.JPG.JPG

  15. Anti-Sprawl? “Smart growth” Example: 100 acres residential,700-900 units; 90 A open spaces And parking , 40 acres commercial… Stables facilities: 40 acres, total est. water use for all <1000 AF; currently In corn, about 575 AF, so adding 425 AF, different seasonality…

  16. Why “smart growth”? $$$$ to enable change, from sales, new money END Perforation of the farming land Benefits and $ spread across ditch Facilities – retirement, daycare, clinic? Facilities – more local business, food hub… Facilities – lower cost, high efficiency housing Reduce conflicts with farming vs houses, septics vs wells…

  17. Recreational Trails – GET $$ FOR OPEN SPACE VALUES Everyone hates trails, at first, but they sure seem to sell… Using real management makes a huge difference for who deals with the hassles !

  18. End-run water quality, TMDLs… with an asset that helps! The whole of the green areas here: OUTSIDE the ditch is 6816 A INSIDE THE DITCH IS 3179 A (but very few fields given up!) -- ENOUGH TO BE AN HCP? AVOID ANY ESA PROBLEMS, AVOID CLEAN WATER ACT MESS with good filtration… AND SALEABLE WETLANDS MITIGATION?

  19. Convert to wetlands, extending what is there? Would take water for that purpose, but seasonality might be different from most crops

  20. http://www.colorado.edu/ibs/eb/wiener/illustrations/BessemerArkansasIllustrations/ExistingWetland6MileCreekDSC_0469_3408.JPG.JPGhttp://www.colorado.edu/ibs/eb/wiener/illustrations/BessemerArkansasIllustrations/ExistingWetland6MileCreekDSC_0469_3408.JPG.JPG

  21. Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP 21.org) : Irrigation on the Bessemer Ditch: “What if…” ½ the Alfalfa were converted to winter canola?

  22. Canola for (1/2) of Alfalfa Halved the Alfalfa area, and substituted for Canola THE TIMING OF WATER APPLICATION HAS ECONOMIC VALUES AS WELL AS THE VOLUME – This provides a lot of early-season water that might be valuable for municipal supply as well as for other higher-value crops… Lots to explore!

  23. Canola (just read “Price-stabilized biodiesel fuel and high-protein feed) for Corn Halved the Alfalfa area, and substituted for Canola Putting in winter canola instead of the corn (4130 A) makes water available early and later in the season… this may be what the municipality needs.

  24. What’s in your dreams? http://www.colorado.edu/ibs/eb/wiener/illustrations/BessemerArkansasIllustrations/EarlyLeavesOldTreesBessemer13Apr11.jpg.JPG

  25. http://www.colorado.edu/ibs/eb/wiener/illustrations/BessemerArkansasIllustrations/SunflowerCloudsBessemerDSC_1469_2713.JPGhttp://www.colorado.edu/ibs/eb/wiener/illustrations/BessemerArkansasIllustrations/SunflowerCloudsBessemerDSC_1469_2713.JPG

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