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The Commercial Nuclear Power Industry Don Lincoln Principal nStone Corporation

The Commercial Nuclear Power Industry Don Lincoln Principal nStone Corporation. September 2011. Agenda. History Current Status What Went Wrong Other Issues – Chernobyl, Fukushima, & High Level Waste Comparison of Current Plants and New Potential New Units Drivers for the Resurgence

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The Commercial Nuclear Power Industry Don Lincoln Principal nStone Corporation

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  1. The Commercial Nuclear Power Industry Don LincolnPrincipal nStone Corporation September 2011

  2. Agenda History Current Status What Went Wrong Other Issues – Chernobyl, Fukushima, & High Level Waste Comparison of Current Plants and New Potential New Units Drivers for the Resurgence Small Modular Reactors The Future

  3. 1.History • 1942 First sustained and controlled fission reaction • 1946 Formation of the Atomic Energy Commission (AEC) with a civilian branch • 1954 Atomic Energy Act allows private ownership of nuclear reactors • 1954 AEC initiates the Power Reactor Demonstration Program

  4. 1.History CP-1 Critical December 2, 1942 University of Chicago Stagg Field Squash Court Under West Grandstand Squash Racket Racquetball Racket

  5. 1.History CP-1 Critical December 2, 1942 University of Chicago

  6. 1.History AEC - Power Reactor Demonstration Program - 1954

  7. 1.History Hallam

  8. 1.History Piqua Nuclear Power Station

  9. 1.History - 1978 Units On-Order, Under Construction, or Operating • Nuclear Steam Supply (NSS) Vendors • Westinghouse – PWR 95 • Combustion Engineering – PWR 23 • Babcock and Wilcox – PWR 13 • General Electric – BWR 60 • General Atomic – HTGR 1 • Total Units 192 • Reactor Licensing Process • Preliminary Safety Analysis Report, PSAR • (construction license) • Final Safety Analysis report, FSAR and Technical Specifications • (operating license)

  10. 1.History – March 28, 1979 Three Mile Island – 2, Harrisburg PA

  11. 2. Current Industry Status • 104 Nuclear Units Operating Today • PWR 69 • BWR 35 Average Capacity Factor (2010) – 91.1% Average O&M + Fuel Cost (2010) - $17.60 per MWh • Generation by Energy Source – 2006 • Coal 49.0% • Natural Gas 20.0% • Hydro 7.0% • Petroleum 1.6% • Nuclear 19.4% • Other 3.0% 11

  12. 2.Current Status

  13. 3.What Went Wrong? • Utilities projection of growth – 7 to 10 year doubling • TMI and other regulatory issues drove design changes • Massive construction schedule delays • High interest rates in late 1970s and early 1980s (1981 peak in prime rate of 21.5%) • Total project costs increased significantly

  14. 4. Chernobyl Accident – April 26, 1986

  15. 4. Chernobyl Accident – April 26, 1986

  16. 4. Chernobyl Accident – April 26, 1986 • RBMK Currently • Now 12 Operating RBMK Units Russia/Lithuania • 48% of Russian Nuclear Capacity in 2010 • Initial Operation 1973 – 1990 • Projected Shutdown 2012 - 2024

  17. 4.Fukushima Accident – March 11, 2011

  18. 4.Fukushima Before March 11, 2011

  19. 4.Fukushima March 15, 2011

  20. 4.Fukushima Accident – March 11, 2011

  21. 4.High Level Waste

  22. 4.High Level Waste

  23. 4.High Level Waste

  24. 4.High Level Waste

  25. 4.High Level Waste Blue Ribbon Commission Recommendations for the long term solution to managing the nations used nuclear fuel Yucca Mountain Project

  26. 5.Technology Comparison Current Design New Design

  27. 5.Technology Comparison

  28. ** 5.Technology Comparison Simplification of Design Eliminates Components and Reduces Cost 50% FewerValves 35% FewerSafety Grade Pumps 80% LessPipe 45% LessSeismic BuildingVolume 85% LessCable

  29. 6.Potential New Units

  30. 2.Current Status Construction/Operating License (COL) in Process Construction/Operating License (COL) Suspended/Unscheduled

  31. 7.Drivers for the Resurgence Cost to Generate, O&M plus Fuel (2009) $17.60 per MWh Average Capacity Factor – 91.1% 1100 MW Nuclear Plant Average Wholesale Price of Electricity (2010 Est)$50.00 per MWh Average Delivery Cost (T&D) 20% Hours per year 8760 hrs per Year Annual Net Revenue (8760x0.911x1100x($50-$17.60)x0.8 $227,000,000 Payback at a cost to construct of $1500/kW 6.6 Years Payback at a cost to construct of $2500/kW 11.0 Years Payback at a cost to construct of $5300/kW23.24Years Payback at a cost to construct of $6000/kW26.5 Years (Actual recent costs in Japan and Finland: $2300 - $2800/kW) (Estimated Costs USA: Summer $4800 – Turkey Point $4540/kW)

  32. 8. Small Modular Reactors Hyperion Power – 27 MW Santa Fe, NM Babcock & Wilcox mPower 125 MW Lynchburg, VA

  33. 8. Small reactors GE Hitachi Prism 331 MW Underground Containment NuScale Power - 45 MW Corvallis, OR Toshiba 4S - 10 MW Japan

  34. 9. The Future Pebble Bed Modular Reactor ITER Experimental Fusion Reactor

  35. Questions?

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