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Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation

Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation. Dr. Louis W. Uccellini Director, NCEP. COPC Meeting Offutt Air Force Base, NE May 2, 2007. Satellite Data Ingest. Five Order of Magnitude Increases in Satellite Data Over 15 Years (2000-2015). Daily Satellite & Radar Observation Count.

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Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation

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  1. Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation Dr. Louis W. Uccellini Director, NCEP COPC Meeting Offutt Air Force Base, NE May 2, 2007

  2. Satellite Data Ingest Five Order of Magnitude Increases in SatelliteData Over 15 Years (2000-2015) Daily Satellite & Radar Observation Count Daily Percentage of Data Ingested into Models *2006 Data Level 2 Radar NPOESS 239.5M 100% 239 M obs Received Data 125 M obs Selected Data Assimilated Data 100 M obs Count (Millions) 17.3M 7% 5.2M 2% 1990 2000 2015 Received = All observations received operationally from providers Selected = Observations selected as suitable for use (cloud free, …)* Assimilated = Observations actually assimilated into models *Science, data resolution, computer issues,… need to be addressed Top priority Science issue: Surface Emissivity

  3. JCSDA Resources(In $K) * Infrastructure Includes: Director, Deputy, Program Support, Travel, Pubs, Desktop IT, Forecast System Maintenance, Database Management, High-Performance Computing/Communications HPC/C accounts for 60% of $

  4. Major Accomplishments:Highlights • COSMIC capability in NCEP Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS) • Increased AIRS data ingested (all fields of view) • New NCEP GDAS – • Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) analysis • Hybrid (sigma-pressure) coordinate model • Global and regional application with same code • Implemented 1 May 2007 • Improved short-term forecasts • Includes COSMIC and AIRS upgrades

  5. Major Accomplishments: Details • Key Milestones Achieved since November 2006 COPC Meeting: • Completed WINDSAT vector wind data forecast impact assessment using the NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS) – improved forecasts • Completed AIRS forecast impact assessment using all fields of view in the NCEP GFS – improved forecasts • Completed COSMIC forecast impact assessment using the NCEP GFS; assessment was completed within seven months of data availability; possible data QC issues under investigation • Implemented Jason altimeter data into the NCEP operational Global Ocean Data Assimilation System (GODAS) • Completed AMSR-E radiance forecast impact assessment using the NCEP GFS • Completed SSMI/S radiance forecast impact assessment using the NCEP GFS

  6. Major Accomplishments: EMC-GMAO-STAR Code Management for Atmospheric Data Assimilation Process: similar to ECMWF & Météo-France who have annual code mergers But,to promote collaboration, EMC and GMAO use same repository and mergers are more frequent (3 months) GSI & CRTM supported 3 months * * * * * * * * EMC 3 1 Accepted changes * *EMC, GMAO System change Repository change +Repository Merger (new tag) 2 + + Repository Protocols 1 – EMC, GMAO take (agreed-upon) merged code from repository to begin work 2 – EMC, GMAO incorporate developments into repository 3 – Code mergers, repository changes and timing are NCEP’s decision GMAO * * * * * * * Time

  7. GSI Summary Ops • 500 hPa heights neutral in both Northern Hemisphere and Southern Hemisphere • Improved hurricane track forecasts beyond 3 days • Forecast mid-latitude winds fit radiosondes significantly better (0-48 h) • Bias of 200 hPa winds over East Asia substantially reduced in GSI hybrid • GSI hybrid analysed moisture closer to radiosondes • GSI hybrid precip over continental US slightly more skill than operational • Rms vector wind error in pry at 200 and 850 hPa in tropics reduced GSI Ops GSI

  8. GSI 6h Forecast Error – June 2006 Operations GSI Parallel SSI – large 6h forecast error GSI – well balanced increment Fields leads to small 6 h error

  9. Ops Forecast Parallel Forecast Example Of 5 day Forecast 10 m wind Valid 1 April 2007 NCEP Parallel System ~5 day forecasts from the operational GFS (top left) and the hybrid/GSI GFS (top right) and verifying analysis (bottom) on 1 April 1200 UTC GSI Analysis

  10. Impact Study with COSMIC • 500 hPa height anomaly correlation as a function of forecast day for two different experiments: • PRYnc (assimilation of operational obs ) • PRYc (PRYnc + COSMIC) • Approximately 1,000 COSMIC profiles were assimilated per day • Results with COSMIC are very encouraging

  11. NCEP / NRL Interaction NCEP Implementation August 2006 • Ozone Physics • Uses algorithms contributed by NRL through JCSDA • Adapted by EMC, evaluated by CPC • Removes low tropical bias in total ozone in GFS Total Ozone Forecast Errors (courtesy Craig Long – CPC) Operational Parallel

  12. Satellite Data Status – May 2007

  13. Status of the JCSDA MOA • NOAA, Air Force, and Navy legal reviews • have been completed • Awaiting resolution of one remaining issue with • NASA regarding the number of signatories • The MOA should be ready for signature within 30 • days after successful resolution of signatory issue

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