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RIMPAC 2014 – Scenario Overview

RIMPAC 2014 – Scenario Overview. LT Tolu “T” O’Brien, USN 07 July 14. UNCLASSIFIED. Joint Operating Area. OJOA. JOA. Operational Environment. LEGEND. Chokepoints. Shallow water, poss Mine laying area. Leo Sea. Merchant Flow. YOLO (Island of YORK). Offshore Oil Platforms.

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RIMPAC 2014 – Scenario Overview

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  1. RIMPAC 2014 – Scenario Overview LT Tolu “T” O’Brien, USN 07 July 14 UNCLASSIFIED

  2. Joint Operating Area OJOA JOA

  3. Operational Environment LEGEND Chokepoints Shallow water, poss Mine laying area Leo Sea Merchant Flow YOLO (Island of YORK) Offshore Oil Platforms Neptune Sea GRIFFON PANDORA YOLO (Island of YETI) CTF-176 CTF-177 CTF-170 CTF-175 CTF-171 CTF-178 ORION PANDORA (SHOAL)

  4. Political Situation GRIFFON(Friendly) • Liberal Democratic Republic • Head of State: President Jack Embry • Economic/political ties with RIMPAC nations • Strongest economy in the region • Has two refineries along its southeastern coast • Superior industrial infrastructure clustered in its developed cities • Trades freely with all Coaster Island counties except Orion • Disparate distribution of wealth • Griffon Defense Force • Moderately trained defense force comprised of a Navy, Army and Air Force • Limited military and defense capability ORION (Belligerent) • Military Dictatorship • Head of State: General Trent Savage • Military “strong arm” in region • Economically dependent on Griffon • Has no feasible way to refine oil without access to Griffon refineries • Primary belligerent • Desires hegemony • Expansionist regime

  5. Political Situation YOLO (Neutral) • Constitutional Monarchy • Head of State: His Majesty Francis de Paul • Prime Minister: Mr. Alex Spenwrath • Agrarian society • Diplomatic relationship with Orion • Economic relationship with Griffon • Maintains a small military • Yolo Security Forces PANDORA (Neutral) • Democratic Republic • Head of State: President Dean Lewis • Neutral • No known alliances • Small and open economy • Moderately sized and capable military comprised of a Navy, Army and Air Force ARMED RESISTANCE MOVEMENT (ARM) (Belligerent) • Radical organized armed group • Militant off-shoot of the Liberal Enterprise of Griffon (LEG) Party • ARM Leader: Dr. Harold Shand • IED Commander: Mr. David Liebman • Operates in Griffon and maintains training camp in Northwest York, Yolo • Maintains financial ties to Orion • No other known alliances • Primary objective: destabilize and overthrow of the Government of Griffon

  6. Road to Crisis JUN 14: UNSCR 9995 passed. JUN 14: Orion conducts combined military exercise in Coaster Sea. Orion shoots down Griffon transport plane. Griffon FFG sank by Orion CDCM in Coaster Sea. JUN 14: CTF 171 established. MAY 14: Orion Naval Forces sink Griffon-flagged M/V ULTIMATE JOURNEY IVO SOO. JUN 14: 3x simultaneous IED attacks in Pearl Harbor. MAY 14: Flooding in NW Griffon destroys property and causes food shortages World Food Programme arrives in NW Griffon. IRC provides humanitarian aide. MAY 14: IED event at Kaneohe Bay, Griffon. APR 14: RIMPAC Joint Communique issued. MAR 14: Orion Naval Forces fired upon Griffon flagged M/V LIQUID MIGHT in the SOO. APR 14: UNSCR 9993 and 9994 passed. MAR 14: Gov’t of Yolo requests international support to conduct MIW. MAR 14: M/V SAILOR MOON hijacked off the coast of Pandora IVO SOS. NOV 13: Orion conducts ASWEX IVO Hilo Naval Base. AUG13: Orion Naval Forces diverted Griffon-flagged LPG Tankers in SOO and seized refined oil products. FEB 14: Mine-laden fishing vessel interdicted by Yolo Security Forces. Increased ARM activity in Honolulu, Griffon. JAN 13: Orion refuses diplomatic invitations by Griffon claiming rights to stop and search Griffon vessels. JAN 14: M/V UNFORTUNATE struck a mine IVO NW coast of York, Yolo. ARM JAN 14: ARM defensive mining outside training camp IVO NW York, Yolo. NOV 12: Orion publicly claimed Griffon breached oil refinery agreement. GRIFFON AUG 13: UNSCR 9992 passed. ORION AUG 13: IED event in downtown Honolulu, Griffon. PIRACY MAR 13: Pirates successfully hijack and collected ransom on M/V SO LUCKY in BOP. INT’L DEC 12: ARM fighters seized several MANPADS and RPGs from supply transport. YOLO OCT 12: UNSCR 9991 to counter piracy in the Coaster Islands passed.

  7. UN Security Council Resolutions (UNSCRs)

  8. Griffon Defense Force Overview Griffon Air Force Assets: C-130 Lear Jet SA 330 PUMA UH-60 Griffon IADS: SAM-1 Griffon Naval Vessels: FFG/FFH PB-1 Port Security/TPSB PT-1 WPB-1 Griffon Missiles: CDCM-1 Griffon Mines: Mines 1,2,3,4 Griffon Army Equipment CH-47 UH-60 APC IFV 85mm SP

  9. Orion Armed Forces Overview Air Force IADS: AAA • SAM-1 • SAM-2 • SAM-3 • Air Force Assets: A-10C B-47 • CH-47 • CH-53 E-3 F-15C F-16 HAWKER HUNTER HH-60G HH-65 • UH-60 KC-130 KC-135 LEARJET MH-60 P-3 Orion Army Equipment: T-55 M60 PATTON ZSU-23-4 ZU-23-2 BM-21 BTR-40 BTR-60 COUGAR PANHARD AML PANHARD AML-245 Orion Naval Vessels: CG COMMERICAL TANKER DDG • FAC/FIAC FFGs/FFHs FUEL BARGE • LST • PB • Orion Subs: • SSK CLASS 1 • SSK CLASS 2 • SSK CLASS 3 • Orion Missiles: • CDCM-1 • CDCM-2 Orion Mines: • MINE 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8

  10. FOR EXERCISE PURPOSES ONLY ICOD: 1600Z07JUL 07JUL Orion Intelligence Update • HIGHLIGHTS: • General Savage condemns RIMPAC advance forces • (CS) PBs divert M/T VERY SUPERSTITIOUS • (DP) Surface ships in MODLOC until piers repaired Missile Activity CDCM SAM 1 SAM 2 SAM 3 (DP) SAG 1 CG-300 (8) 060200ZJUL DDG-106 (8) 060200ZJUL FFG-402 (8) 060200ZJUL PATROL IVO PA4 AIRCRAFT (H) SAG 2 CG-311 (8) 010000ZJUL DDG-108 (8) 010000ZJUL FFG-403 (8) 010000ZJUL PATROL IVO PA5 GRIFFON PANDORA (DP) SSK-923 (8) 010130ZJUL MFP (DP) SSK-935 (8) 010200ZJUL MFP SECURITY PATROLS (DP) CG 302 (7) 071600ZJUL (DP) DDG 100 (7) 071600ZJUL (DP) DDG 101 (7) 071600ZJUL (DP) DDG 102 (7) 071600ZJUL (DP) DDG 104 (7) 071600ZJUL (DP) DDG 110 (7) 071600ZJUL (DP) DDG 112 (7) 071600ZJUL (DP) DDG 114 (7) 071600ZJUL (DP) FFG 407 (7) 071600ZJUL (DP) FFG 408 (7) 071600ZJUL (DP) FFG 412 (7) 071600ZJUL (DP) FFG 413 (7) 071600ZJUL (DP) FFG 114 (7) 071600ZJUL (DP) FFG 115 (7) 071600ZJUL MODLOC Camp Steffen Kona ORION AIR 062000ZJUL 1x (H) P-3 conducted MARPAT IVO PA NW & 5 062100ZJUL 4x (K) F-15E ground attack exercise IVO central ORION 070000ZJUL 4x (H) F-16 and 1x KC-135 AAR exercise IVO Hilo Bradshaw (H) SSK-912 (8) 010200ZJUL MFP SECURITY PATROL SHOAL C2 Comment: (U) ONF is continuing to assert control over the Strait of Orion (SOO) as evidenced by yesterday’s diverting of M/T VERY SUPERSTITIOUS. Following General Savage’s condemnation of RIMPAC forces, we assess additional SAGs and submarines may get underway to conduct security patrols and more aggressive harassing & diverting of commercial maritime traffic to take place in the SOO. UNCLASSIFIED

  11. FOR EXERCISE PURPOSES ONLY ICOD: 1600Z07JUL 07JUL ARM Intelligence Update • GEOPOL: • NSTR • ARM • Belligerent rhetoric on social media continues C2 Comment: (U) ARM activity is expected to remain low in Northwest Griffon as the group is unlikely to disrupt disaster relief efforts; instead, ARM will likely focus on planning and execution of future complex, coordinated attacks on Griffon government infrastructure and personnel. UNCLASSIFIED

  12. In Summary • Major players • Griffon (Friendly) • Liberal Democratic Republic • Economic/political ties to RIMPAC nations • Orion (Belligerent) • Military dictatorship • Desires hegemony/expansionist regime • ARM (Belligerent) • Radical organized armed group with presence in Griffon and Yolo • Financial ties to Orion; Objective is to destabilize Griffon’s government • All UNSCRs in effect to date • 9991 (Condemns all acts of piracy and armed robbery within the Coaster Islands) • 9992 (Economic and trade sanctions against Orion) • 9993 (Condemns ARM actions within the Coaster Islands) • 9994 (Reinforces economic and trade sanctions against Orion) • 9995 (All means necessary to restore FON and deter ARM & Orion aggression) • Enemy Center of Gravity • Strategic • Orion - General Trent Savage and his inner circle • ARM - Dr. Harold Shand and his Executive Council • Operational: • Orion - Power projection • ARM - Local populace/ Freedom of movement and maneuver • Enemy Most Likely Course of Action • Orion: Deploy forces to monitor RIMPACforces, continued attacks on merchant shipping, and reinforcement of C2 nodes • ARM: Continued attacks against Griffon government and infrastructure

  13. Questions?

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