Using value-of-time distributions in auto assignment to forecast effects of road pricing schemes with non-additive charg

1. Using value-of-time distributions in auto assignment to forecast effects of road pricing schemes with non-additive charges Leonid Engelson & Dirk van Amelsfort 22nd Emme Users’ Conference, Portland 2011

2. Background • Road charges has been implemented in a dozen of cities • More cities consider • Typically designed as charge zone or charge cordon (set of links) • London, Milano, Valetta: pay as you drive or park in the zone • Singapore, Stockholm: pay each time you pass the cordon • Gothenburg (decided): pay as you pass any link of the set, once within 60 minutes (Multiple Passage Rule, MPR) • WSP Sweden was responsible for modelling in the design project of CC system for Gothenburg • How to model CC system with MPR? 22nd Emme Users’ Conference, Portland 2011

3. Background 22nd Emme Users’ Conference, Portland 2011

4. OSLO Sweden’s second largest city 500 000 inhabitants Freight hub Land use low density River with only 3 – 4 crossings Railway station dead-end STOCKHOLM MALMÖ

5. Gothenburg suffers (some) congestion in morning peak 22nd Emme Users’ Conference, Portland 2011

6. …and substantial air quality problems Nitrogen dioxide 98-percentile in 2008 (Red = above the Environmental Quality Standards) 22nd Emme Users’ Conference, Portland 2011

7. Politicians were inspired by success of the Congestion charging in Stockholm Delimited by water 18 entry points sufficient Bypass exempted from charging Jan-July 2006 Trial Sep 2006 Referendum showed: Most inhabitants of the Stockholm commune are positive to the charges August 2007 Permanent introduction Cordon based Time differentiated 1,5-3 $ per passage 22nd Emme Users’ Conference, Portland 2011

8. Objectives… • 100 million $ net revenue in 2015. • Reduction in congestionand air polluting emissions from traffic • Reduction of traffic through central Gothenburg • and constraints… • Reasonable cost increase for travellers. • Fit under the existing legislation • Logical and easy to understand for the users. • ANPR technology from Stockholm • Tax to be paid 06.00 am – 18.30 pm. • Same fare for all non-exempted vehicles 22nd Emme Users’ Conference, Portland 2011

9. First stage of the design :5 cordon types examined, 5 types of effects predictedSmall cordon chosen Revenue Congestion Environment Route choices Modal split 22nd Emme Users’ Conference, Portland 2011

10. Second stage of the design:Blue and Green – two small cordons evaluated in detail Multiple passages => one charge 22nd Emme Users’ Conference, Portland 2011

11. SAMPERS – Swedish travel demand model • 5 regions + long trips • Four stages • Multiclass auto assignment with generalized costs (Emme) • Complication 1: Non-additive route cost: paying just once • Complication 2: Discrete values of time • Too coarse representation of preferences • Optimal discretization different for different OD-pairs Modelling tool: A B C 1 $ 1 $ 22nd Emme Users’ Conference, Portland 2011

12. 1 0 Value of time Solution: Hierarchic route choice with VoT distribution Define modes: H = whole road network D = links without charges 2 classes auto assignment: to H and to D Module 5.25, save paths Paying trip matrix Non-paying trip matrix Repeat until convergence (MSA) TimeH and TimeD DistH and DistD F Weigh together for CBA 22nd Emme Users’ Conference, Portland 2011

13. Convergence with MSA applied to the demand 22nd Emme Users’ Conference, Portland 2011

14. From new Swedish VoT study: Lognormal distributions (kr/h) ($1=6.3kr) 22nd Emme Users’ Conference, Portland 2011

15. Blue and Green – two small zones evaluated in detailMultiple passages => one charge Generally similar effects Blue chosen + Stronger congestion releif + Stronger effect on the air quality 22nd Emme Users’ Conference, Portland 2011

16. Flow changes with charges, the Blue scenario 22nd Emme Users’ Conference, Portland 2011

17. Final scheme Yellow sistem Closed ring+6 links Improved Urban function and understandability compared to the blue system (using the same method) 22nd Emme Users’ Conference, Portland 2011

18. Advantages of the method • Can be applied to some road user charge systems with discounts • Allows arbitrary distributions of VoT • Good convergence • Limitations • If the user pays each time, needs 2N user classes, N=number of elements of the charging system (toll rings + separate toll links) • For example, not possible to study effect of the multiple passage rule with continuous VoT distribution for the Yellow system 22nd Emme Users’ Conference, Portland 2011

19. Unresolved issues • VoT for business trips and freight • Distance weight seems too high in the base scenario • Distance weight = (gasoline and amortisationcost per km)/(median VoT) • Too low VoT? • The drivers don’t consider the whole distance related cost? • In the last case (reduced distance cost), too strong (compared to the multiclass method) response to the charges • Distangle distance cost from VoT? • Needed to further calibrate VoT and cost per km 22nd Emme Users’ Conference, Portland 2011

20. Assignment method with continuous VoT distribution worked well in the application to Gothenburg Manages cordon charge that is independent of the number of crossings Warning: assignment with continuous VoT may give very different results compared to the assignment with discrete VoT. Conclusions 22nd Emme Users’ Conference, Portland 2011

21. Questions? Thank you for your attention 22nd Emme Users’ Conference, Portland 2011

22. Welcome to the Nordic Emme Users’ Conference 19-20 March 2012 in Stockholm! 22nd Emme Users’ Conference, Portland 2011