Are NGVs Still a Clean Air Strategy of the Future?

1. Are NGVsStill a Clean Air Strategy of the Future?

2. South CoastAir Quality Management District • 4-county region • 16½ million people • 270,000+ diesel vehicles • 9.7+ million gasoline vehicles as of Jan. 2006

3. 2005 South Coast Air Basin Quality Compared to Other California Air Basins Percent of Standard 200% 150% Federal Standard 100% 50% 0% South Coast San Joaquin San Sacramento South Central San Diego Valley Francisco Valley Coast Bay Area Ozone (8-hour) Ozone (1-hour) PM2.5 (Annual) PM10 (Annual) CO (8-hour) NO2 (Annual)

4. 2005 South Coast Air Basin Quality Compared to Other U.S. Cities

5. Severe Air Quality ProblemRequires Cleaner Technologies

6. What Do We Know Today? • Air Quality Significantly Improved • Health Effects Worse Than Previously Known • Additional 20 Years Or MoreTo Reach Clean Air Standards

7. AQ-Related Health StudiesPUBLISHED 2005 • Mortality and Air Pollution in SoCal • USC School of Medicine (Jerrett) • Coronary Heart Disease and Particulates • Loma Linda School of Public Health (Chen) • Atherosclerosis and Air Pollution in SoCal Residents • USC School of Medicine (Künzli) • Atherosclerosis and Particulates, laboratory animal study • NYU School of Medicine (Sun)

8. What Are theHealth Consequences Today? • 6,500 premature deaths / year • 9,000 hospitalizations / year • 1.7 million cases respiratory illness / yr • 1.3 million school absences • 2.8 million lost workdays / year Source: CARB January 2004

9. Carrying Capacity -78% -70% Tons/day NOx VOC

10. Current Status of NGV Programs

11. Carl Moyer / Incentive Programs Annual SB1107 $24M $2 DMV Fee $22M Tire Fee $10M Total $56M

12. South Coast AQMD CNG / LNG Stations Year 2000 Year 2006 23 Stations Existing 67 Stations Existing 22 Planned

14. 2001 Model Year Light- and Medium-Duty Chrysler Ford GM Honda Toyota Heavy-Duty Cummins DDC Deere Ford Mack 2006 Model Year Light- and Medium-Duty GM Honda Heavy-Duty Cummins/Westport Deere Natural Gas Vehicle Availability from Major Manufacturers

15. ? Hydrogen Pathway Fuel CellVehicles Hydrogen ICEs Natural Gas – Hydrogen Blends Natural Gas ICE Vehicles Hybrids

16. Other Important Issues • Hot Gas • Fuel Neutrality • Ultrafine Particulates

17. Hot Gas • LNG supplies ≠ CARB fuel specs • Low methane number LNG not compatible with older NGVs • Out-of-spec LNG may restrict fuel availability • NOx 

18. ’96 Detroit Diesel, Open-Loop NOx vs. Wobbe CPUC Max. WI 2010 HDV NOx Std.

19. Closed-Loop HD Engine NMHC vs % VOC in Fuel Without Oxidation Catalysts 2010 HDV NMHC Std.

20. Lowest- Pollution Alternative Fuel Neutrality =

21. Diesel Technology Improving • MY2009 SULEV (Honda Civic) • Heavy-Duty using SCR andDPF to meet 2010 Federal Standards • European market penetrationfor both LDVs and HDVs

22. Ultrafines!

23. Comparison: Particle Size Distribution

24. What’s Needed? • More vehicle models which arecost-competitive and address • Air quality • Greenhouse gas emissions • Energy diversity • Heavy-duty vehicles need to meet2010 standard ahead of schedule

25. What’s Needed? (continued) • NO HOT GAS! • Infrastructure • Enhance fueling network and improved LNG availability • Advance and promote greater use of residential fueling technology • Economic competitiveness: Advance fuel storage technology to increase vehicle range and lower cost

26. Aesop’s FableThe Tortoise and the Hare

27. The pessimist…complains about the wind The optimist…expects it to change The realist …adjusts the sails - - William Arthur Ward

28. Cleaning the air that we breathe.