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Course on Green Chemistry Todai Kashiwa April – May 2008

Course on Green Chemistry Todai Kashiwa April – May 2008. Climate and Energy: The ¥ 600 Trillion Gamble. “ If there’s no action before 2012, that’s too late. What we do in the next two to three years will determine our future. This is the defining moment.”

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Course on Green Chemistry Todai Kashiwa April – May 2008

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  1. Course on Green Chemistry Todai Kashiwa April – May 2008 Climate and Energy: The ¥ 600 Trillion Gamble

  2. “If there’s no action before 2012, that’s too late. What we do in the next two to three years will determine our future. This is the defining moment.” “We really need a new ethic where every human being faces the challenge and starts to take action through changes in their lifestyle, attitude, and behavior.” -- R. Pachauri, UN Press Conference, Nov. 17 2007 --

  3. Such a rapid change does not happen “by itself” -- there has to be a “forcing function”. We have met the forcing function, and it is us ! Much of this change has occurred in just the past 50 years. Carbon dioxide increase > 70% Methane increase 140% Nitrous oxide increase 23% (from IPCC AR.4 WG2 SPM-1)

  4. Radiative balance in the Earth’s atmosphere – the “Greenhouse Effect”

  5. Changes in: Global average temperature Mean sea level Northern hemisphere snow (and ice) cover (from IPCC AR.4 WG2 SPM-1)

  6. -- Committee on Surface Temperature Reconstructions for the Last 2,000 Years, U.S. National Research Council, 2006.

  7. All “forecasts” in the IPCC Reports are model dependent !

  8. Business as usual --- no further increase In GHG concentrations

  9. Projected impacts of climate change Global temperature change (relative to pre-industrial) 0°C 1°C 2°C 3°C 4°C 5°C Food Falling crop yields in many areas, particularly developing regions Falling yields in many developed regions Possible rising yields in some high latitude regions Water Significant decreases in water availability in many areas, including Mediterranean and Southern Africa Small mountain glaciers disappear – water supplies threatened in several areas Sea level rise threatens major cities Ecosystems Extensive Damage to Coral Reefs Rising number of species face extinction Extreme Weather Events Rising intensity of storms, forest fires, droughts, flooding and heat waves Risk of Abrupt and Major Irreversible Changes Increasing risk of dangerous feedbacks and abrupt, large-scale shifts in the climate system Sir Nicholas Stern, MIT Seminar, 19 November 2007

  10. R.A. Kerr, “How urgent is Climate Change”, Science318, 1230 – 1231 (23 Nov 2007)

  11. The IPCC is honored with the Nobel Peace Prize Oslo, 10 December 07 - The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and Albert Arnold (Al) Gore Jr. were awarded of the Nobel Peace Prize "for their efforts to build up and disseminate greater knowledge about man-made climate change, and to lay the foundations for the measures that are needed to counteract such change".

  12. “There is still time to avoid the worst impacts of climate change, if we take strong action now.” “… the Review estimates that if we don’t act, the overall costs and risks of climate change will be equivalent to losing at least 5% of global GDP each year, now and forever. If a wider range of risks and impacts is taken into account, the estimates of damage could rise to 20% of GDP or more.”* (* 5 ~ 20 % of global GDP is from $2 trillion to $ 10 trillion USD … now and forever.) http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/independent_reviews/stern_review_economics _climate_change/stern_review_report.cfm

  13. Bali Conference of the Parties, Dec. 2007 “If you are not willing to lead … please get out of the way” -- Kevin Conrad, Papua New Guinea delegate “We will go forward and join consensus” -- Paula Dobriansky, United States delegate The Economist, December 19 2007

  14. (mostly as CO2) “business as usual” we are now at 380 ppm CO2 in the atmosphere

  15. -- Prof. G. McRae, M.I.T.

  16. World Average = 1.7 TOE/person-year [1998 World Average = 1.4 TOE/per-yr] From: Pocket World in Figures 2007, The Economist, London (With thanks to Dr. Elisabeth Drake, LFEE)

  17. Global Primary Energy Demand – “Business as Usual” scenario E.J. Moniz and EPPA Energy use, exaJ / year

  18. Energy Consumption - USA Total: 90 EJ/year Per Capita: 10‘500 W

  19. Energy Consumption - China Total: 46 EJ/year Per Capita: 1,200 W

  20. CO2 emissions and carbon intensity for China from 1980 to 2006 (1-3).PHOTO CREDIT: TANGCUN TOWN, SHANDONG, CHINA; WWW.ZCTC.GOV.CN CO2 emissions and carbon intensity for China from 1980 to 2006 (Zeng at al., Science 319, 730 (2008).

  21. What are the issues? • Energy demand will continue to increase, especially as emerging economies develop • Associated CO2 emissions and accumulation are leading to “dangerous climate change” • Are petroleum reserves being depleted? • There are still 1.6 billion people with no access to electricity or other forms of “clean” energy • Energy-related security challenges include • -- uneven distribution of resources • -- vulnerability to threats and natural disasters • -- political instability and tensions • -- nuclear weapons proliferation

  22. Relevant Energy Resources • Fossil fuels (oil, coal, natural gas) • Nuclear energy (fission and – maybe – fusion) • Hydroelectricity • Solar energy (solar thermal, photovoltaic) • Biomass („energy crops“) • Geothermal energy • Efficiency

  23. What is “Peak Oil” ?

  24. We have plenty of coal, but …..

  25. Is biomass / biofuel the solution … or the problem? or FUEL ? FOOD … or FEEDSTOCKS?

  26. What is a Sustainable Energy Future ?

  27. We must learn to use all our energy resources more efficiently. • Changes need time – but we must start now! “If there’s no action before 2012, that’s too late. What we do in the next two to three years will determine our future. This is the defining moment.” How can Green Chemistry help solve the challenge of a sustainable energy system?

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