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California’s Electricity Situation Summer 2005

California’s Electricity Situation Summer 2005. December 7, 2004. 2005 Concerns. Southern California: Available capacity does not satisfy operating reserves under normal and hot weather (10% probability) conditions.

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California’s Electricity Situation Summer 2005

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  1. California’s Electricity SituationSummer 2005 December 7, 2004

  2. 2005 Concerns • Southern California: Available capacity does not satisfy operating reserves under normal and hot weather (10% probability) conditions. • Northern California: Reserves are adequate under hot weather but action is needed. • Statewide: Reserves are low under hot weather conditions. • Solutions are available but require aggressive and coordinated action in all areas.

  3. 2005 Monthly Projection – So. Calif.

  4. 2005 Reserve – So. Cal.

  5. 2005 Monthly Projection – No. Calif.

  6. 30% 25% 20% Operating Reserve Forecast for 1-in-2 15% Forecast for 1-in-10 10% 5% 0% Jun 2005 Jul 2005 Aug 2005 Sep 2005 2005 Reserve – No. Cal. Desired 7% Reserve

  7. Long Term Assessment • Demand growth and retirements will result in more severe reserve inadequacies in 2006 and beyond. • Additional generation and aggressive efficiency actions are needed statewide. • Must ensure effective resource adequacy requirements implemented by 2006.

  8. Long-Term Assessment: So. Calif.

  9. Long Term Assessment: No. Calif.

  10. 2005 Goal - Maintain Reliability • Statewide as well as independently in northern and southern California. • Under hot weather conditions (10% probability). • With about a 7% operating reserve. • Consider only resources available by 6/30. • Use interruptible programs only to respond to adverse conditions. • Don’t sacrifice environmental protection.

  11. 2005 Actions: Statewide • Ensure load serving entities forward purchase sufficient resources to maintain reliability. • Continue to provide information to establish locational needs to meet deliverability requirements. • Ensure successful utility procurement processes.

  12. 2005 Actions: Statewide • Accelerate construction of permitted power plants. • Identify and expedite transmission upgrades feasible for 2005. • Augment interruptible programs • Emphasize public education and voluntary reduction efforts. • Augment energy efficiency programs.

  13. 2005 Actions: Southern California • Secure Resource Plans. • Delay retirements – 300 MW. • Accelerate new generation – 694 MW. • Accelerate transmission projects – 300 MW. • Obtain excess Muni. power – 400 MW. • Enhance “Flex Your Power” – 500 MW. • Optimize interruptible programs. • Augment efficiency programs.

  14. 2005 Options: Northern California • Resolve San Francisco generation modifications – 200 MW. • Coordinate operation of Delta power plants to satisfy air permit requirements – 700 MW. • Accelerate progress on generation additions – 575 MW.

  15. 2005 Response

  16. 2006 and beyond Response

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