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Unit 8

Unit 8. Unit 8 Objectives. Identify the types, purpose, and elements of Predictive Service products. Identify the types, purpose, and elements of National Weather Service products. Identify ways in which firefighters can receive fire weather products and weather observations.

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Unit 8

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  1. Unit 8

  2. Unit 8 Objectives • Identify the types, purpose, and elements of Predictive Service products. • Identify the types, purpose, and elements of National Weather Service products. • Identify ways in which firefighters can receive fire weather products and weather observations. • Describe the importance of Incident Meteorologists (IMET) and Fire Behavior Analysts (FBAN) on wildland fires.

  3. Meeting Fire Management Needs • Fire weather/fire potential products help: • Plan daily fire management activities • Plan effective control actions • Determine short and long term fire potential • Products developed by: • Land Management Predictive Services • National Weather Service (NWS)

  4. Predictive Services • Combined group of fire Intelligence Coordinators, FBANs, and Fire Meteorologists. • Each GACC has a predictive services group to meet the needs of the geographic area. • GACC level information is integrated into national level outlooks.

  5. Predictive Services Reno 8-5-S290-EP

  6. Predictive Services Products and Services • Monitors, analyzes and predicts fire weather, fire danger and interagency fire management resource impact. • Produce a range of combined fire weather/fire danger outlooks for predetermined predictive service zones. • Zones based on RAWS climatology and topography.

  7. Predictive Services Products and Services Products are targeted to aid resource related decision-making at the GACC and national levels Northwest Area Predictive Services Zones

  8. PredictiveServices Suite of Products • 7-Day Significant Fire Potential • Monthly Fire Weather/Fire Danger Outlook • National Fire Weather/Fire Danger Outlook • Seasonal Assessment Outlook • Other products

  9. 7 Day Significant Fire Potential 8-9-S290-EP

  10. PredictiveServices 7 Day Significant Fire Potential • Provides fire potential for a geographical area • The product includes: • Weather/fuels discussion • Current and projected fuel dryness • Fire potential discussion map • Significant weather • High risk days • Resource concerns

  11. Monthly Fire Weather Fire Danger Outlook Fire danger report and map 8-11-S290-EP

  12. Monthly Fire Weather Fire Danger Outlook PredictiveServices • Monthly: • Generated by the GACCs • Includes: • A brief discussion of general weather/fire danger for the GA • A brief discussion on current GA fuel anomalies/fuel moisture • Predicted temperature and precipitation • Fire potential map

  13. PredictiveServices National Wildland Fire Outlook 8-13-S290-EP

  14. NationalWildlandFireOutlook PredictiveServices • National Monthly Outlook: • Issued monthly and year-round • Compiled from each GA monthly fire weather/fire danger outlook • Product includes: • GACC narratives • Current and projected fire statistics • Fire potential map

  15. SeasonalAssessments PredictiveServices • Issued on both Geographic and National levels prior to fire season • Product typically includes: • Executive summary • Introduction and objectives • Current situation • Comparison of current and historical conditions • Climate, weather, fire forecasts and outlooks

  16. PredictiveServices Seasonal Assessments • Predicted fire occurrence and resource needs • Future scenarios and probabilities • Considerations, concerns andmanagement implications • Summary, discussions and recommendations 8-16-S290-EP

  17. PredictiveServices Other Products and Services • Weather briefings • Daily summaries of NWS fire weather forecasts • Long term precipitation monitoring • Smoke management summaries • Spot forecasts for planned burns and smoke management (California) • IMET or technical specialist support by qualified GACC meteorologists

  18. National Weather Service • Consists of over 120 offices • Has a variety of operational programs, including fire weather

  19. NationalWeatherService ProductsandServices The Fire Weather Program: • A core suite of standardized fire weather products • Consultation services for prevention, suppression, and other land management activities • Optional products at regional and local office discretion • Products issued by core forecast staff at local office for fire weather service area (fire weather zones)

  20. NationalWeatherService ProductsandServices The Fire Weather Program

  21. NationalWeatherService Fire Weather Planning Forecast 8-21-S290-EP

  22. Fire Weather Forecasts and StatementsprovidedbytheNationalWeatherService • Fire Weather Planning Forecasts • NFDRS Forecasts • Smoke Management Forecasts • Spot Weather Forecasts • Fire Weather Watches and Red Flag Warnings • Wildland Fire Danger Statements

  23. FireWeatherPlanningForecast NationalWeatherService • A narrative or tabular zone-type product • Purpose: • Pre-suppression for fire management • Initial attack readiness • Daily staffing levels • Prevention program • Account for local topography • Is not site specific

  24. FireWeatherPlanningForecast NationalWeatherService FWF Elements Include: • Fire weather headlines and discussion • Sky and weather • Temperature • Relative humidity • Surface (20-foot) wind • 3 to 7 day outlook

  25. NationalWeatherService FireWeatherPlanningForecast Elements may include: • Haines Index • Ridge Top Winds • Mixing Heights • Transport Winds • Dispersion • Clearing Index • Chance of wetting rain (CWR)

  26. Lightning Activity Level LAL 1 – no thunderstorms LAL 2 – isolated thunderstorms, light rainfall LAL 3 – widely scattered thunderstorms, light to moderate rainfall LAL 4 – scattered thunderstorms, moderate rainfall LAL 5 – numerous thunderstorms, moderate to heavy rainfall LAL 6 – same as LAL 3, but dry.

  27. SpotWeatherForecast NationalWeatherService • Spot Forecasts: • site specific • issued to fit time, topography and weather of a specific location • Used for: • wildfires • prescribed burns • spray projects • hazmat situations • other special projects

  28. NationalWeatherService SpotWeatherForecast NWS Spot • national standard for spot requests • request/reply web program • should be used when possible

  29. NationalWeatherService Spot Weather Forecast RequestForm • Request Form includes: • Project name • Requesting agency • Location • Fuel type • Observations • Forecast elements • Remarks • Submit 8-29-S290-EP

  30. Spot Weather Forecast Returned NationalWeatherService Completed Spot Forecast • Valid time period • Topo maps of location • Location information • Elevation, aspect • Fuel type • Observations • Requested parameters • Forecast • Discussion • Forecast elements • Feedback

  31. StepsinObtainingGoodSpotForecasts NationalWeatherService • Take and record representative weather observations on the fire • Complete the NWS Spot request form • Transmit the NWS Spot request form • Provide forecaster feedback on accuracy of forecast

  32. NationalWeatherService Red Flag Warning and Fire Weather Watch 8-32-S290-EP

  33. Red Flag Warning and Fire Weather Watch NationalWeatherService The National Weather Service will issue a watch or warning to alert fire and land managers of CRITICAL or RAPIDLY CHANGING weather conditions that will potentially increase fire danger in a significant way.

  34. RedFlagWarningandFireWeatherWatch NationalWeatherService • Fire Weather Watch: • High potential for red flag event in 24-72 hours • May be issued in first 12 hour time period for dry thunderstorms • Red Flag Warning: • Issued to warn of an impending, or occurring red flag event • Issued when confidence is high that red flag conditions will occur in 24 hours or less

  35. RedFlagWarningandFireWeatherWatchCriteria NationalWeatherService • Criteria may be based on locally or regionally established thresholds • General criteria may include high to extreme fire danger in combination with: • Dry lightning (Ignition is or will occur) • First lightning after an extremely dry period

  36. RedFlagWarningandFireWeatherWatchCriteria NationalWeatherService • Unusually low relative humidity • Very dry and unstable air (high Haines) • Very strong and shifting winds that may or may not be associated with a cold front

  37. NationalWeatherService Smoke Management Forecast • Content may include: • Discussion • Transport winds • Mixing height • Stability • Dispersion • Local Fire Management and NWS should establish content, format, and frequency of issuance

  38. Retrieving Fire Weather InformationInternet and other Communication • Main Sources Fire Weather Products: • Predictive Services web sites • National Predictive Services Homepage • Local NWS web sites • National Weather Service Homepage • Alternative Sources • Phone or radio communications from interagency dispatch center

  39. Retrieving Fire Weather InformationReal-time Observation Monitor and Analysis Network (ROMAN) 8-39-S290-EP

  40. Retrieving Fire Weather InformationReal-time Observation Monitor and Analysis Network (ROMAN) • ROMAN • Weather observation retrieval web application • Simple menu system • Data displayed on regional or local scale

  41. On-SiteWeatherSupport Incident Meteorologist 8-41-S290-EP

  42. Incident Meteorologist On-SiteWeatherSupport • Include NWS, land management, or state meteorologists • Issue incident specific forecasts • Give weather briefings • Collect weather information

  43. 8-43-S290-EP

  44. NWSIncidentMeteorologistTechnology On-SiteWeatherSupport • Atmospheric Theodolite Meteorological Unit (ATMU) • Upper air observing • PIBAL and Theodolite

  45. NWSIncidentMeteorologistTechnology On-SiteWeatherSupport • High speed two-way satellite dish for data transmitting and receiving • All Hazards Meteorological Response System (AMRS)

  46. Fire Behavior Analyst • Fire Behavior Analyst (FBAN) • Calculates predicted fire behavior • Produces fire behavior forecast

  47. Fire Behavior Analyst and Incident Meteorologist • IMET works for FBAN • IMET prepares detailed forecast • FBAN then prepares fire behavior forecast FBAN IMET

  48. Fire Behavior Forecast 8-48-S290-EP

  49. Fire Behavior Forecast • Prepared by FBA • Meets needs of the fire overhead organization • The Product: • Interprets wildland fire calculations • Describes past and expected wildland fire behavior • Identifies hazards due to wildland fire for ground and aircraft activities

  50. Unit 8 Objectives Identify the types, purpose, and elements of Predictive Service products. Identify the types, purpose, and elements of National Weather Service products. Identify ways in which firefighters can receive fire weather products and weather observations. Describe the importance of Incident Meteorologists (IMET) and Fire Behavior Analysts (FBAN) on wildland fires.

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