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Impact Evaluation in Mexico

Impact Evaluation in Mexico. Harry Anthony Patrinos HDNED. Country Context for Evaluation. Capacity in M&E and evaluation precedents Good education data/information Lack of openness on information in education Lack of capacity in education for IE. Progresa/Oportunidades.

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Impact Evaluation in Mexico

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  1. Impact Evaluation in Mexico Harry Anthony Patrinos HDNED

  2. Country Context for Evaluation • Capacity in M&E and evaluation precedents • Good education data/information • Lack of openness on information in education • Lack of capacity in education for IE

  3. Progresa/Oportunidades • Large scale CCT program • Randomized design and phased roll out • External and internal capacity for IE • Results published and used for programming • Led to evaluation institutions, capacity throughout, legal framework • Pressure on other sectors

  4. Education Impact Evaluations pre-2005 • Isolated efforts, not large scale, few published • No culture of IE • No randomized experiments • But interest in results and promoting good programs

  5. Education Impact Evaluations post-2005 • PAREIB – Compensatory rural education • PEC – School-based management in urban disadvantaged areas

  6. Education Impact Evaluations post-2005 • PAREIB – Compensatory rural education • Large rural program targeting disadvantaged rural schools, expansion to all 32 states based on evaluation in early 1990s (led by Bank) • Little interest in IE after that, but considerable capacity to collect information, monitor program • Considered successful program • PEC – School-based management in urban disadvantaged areas • “Pilot” program, 2001, one of first to start with evaluation • But design deficient, not random, led to comparison problems • Considered up until last year as not successful

  7. Education Impact Evaluations post-2005 • PAREIB – Compensatory rural education • Bank undertakes simple matching study • Original resistance by authorities • Positive results led to interest and further work • PEC – School-based management in urban disadvantaged areas • Bank asked to explain their lack of significant findings • Incorporates PEC in AAA and conducts IE • Shown to be positive (verified by external evaluations as well)

  8. Pragmatic Design • Used existing administrative data, project data, MoE data and surveys, Oportunidades data • Initially Bank-led, then partnered with authorities and local researchers • Now client carrying out, publishing, designing evaluations

  9. Results • PAREIB: Matching before project • New team focused on research, first randomization of 1 component planned • PEC: Before approval, weak design • Bank study • Harvard study • Led to new design in project

  10. Results 2 • Quality of dialogue improves • Project design more solid • Financing project becomes sustainable

  11. Results 3 • Justified follow-on operation • Lent credibility to investments, Bank role • Being used for public debate

  12. Taking Advantage of Opportunities • Look at administrative data • Involve operational staff • Partner with program operators • Know incentives of operators and client

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