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Explore how descriptive epidemiological information on person, place, and time is used to generate hypotheses for explaining drug abuse. Learn to evaluate information, develop credible hypotheses, and recognize when a hypothesis does not explain the data.
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Module 2 Introduction Context Content Area: Hypothesis Generation Essential Question (Generic): What hypotheses might explain the distribution of health-related events or states? Essential Question (Drug Abuse Specific): What hypotheses might explain drug abuse? Enduring Epidemiological Understanding: Clues for formulating hypotheses can be found by observing the way a health-related condition or behavior is distributed in a population. Synopsis In Module 2, students explore how descriptive epidemiological information on person, place, and time (PPT) are used to generate hypotheses to explain “why” a health-related event or state has occurred. Students begin to uncover and develop the following epidemiological concepts and skills: evaluating PPT information; developing hypotheses to explain that distribution; understanding that there may be more than one credible hypothesis; and recognizing when a particular hypothesis does NOT explain the PPT information. Lesson 2-1: Overview of PPT and What’s My Hypothesis? Lesson 2-2: In the News Lesson 2-3: Drug Abuse by “Person” Race / Ethnicity Lesson 2-4: Drug Abuse by “Place” States in USA Lesson 2-5: Drug Abuse by “Time” Boundary Effect
Module 2 - Hypothesis Generation • Lesson 2-2 In the News • Content • Continuation of themes of using person, place, and time (PPT) to describe how a disease or other health-related condition is described in a population • Review of definition of “hypothesis” and explanation of how PPT is used to generate “educated guesses” based on observation • Use of news reports to give students practice in sorting clues into “person, place, and time” and identifying hypotheses • Big Ideas • Person, place, and time (PPT) describes a disease or other health-related condition in terms of “who, where, and when” • PPT information often leads to more than one reasonable hypothesis • Some news reports give information about PPT and discuss hypotheses • Hypothesis statements in epidemiology should include: 1) the population to be compared; 2) the hypothesized cause; and 3) the hypothesized health effect or behavior. This project is supported by a Science Education Drug Abuse Partnership Award, Grant Number 1R24DA016357-01, from the National Institute on Drug Abuse, National Institutes of Health.
Where are we? Essential Questions Enduring Understandings
Review Descriptive Epidemiology Study of the distribution of a disease or other health-related condition Uses epidemiological characteristics of Person, Place, and Time (PPT) Basis for formulating hypotheses
PPT Sheet Person: Place: Time: Review - Descriptive Epidemiology Who? Where? When?
Review - Definition of Hypotheses An educated guess An unproven idea, based on observation or reasoning, that can be supported or refuted through investigation
Sample Article Inhalant Abuse on the Rise Among Children by Shankar Vedantam, Washington Post, January 24, 2005; p. A06 Excerpts: Diane Stem of Old Hickory, Tenn., vividly remembers the day she was called home by her distraught husband and daughter: Her 16-year-old son, Ricky Joe Stem Jr., had been found dead in the house with a plastic bag over his head. He had been sniffing Freon from the house's air-conditioning system . . . . . . . . A hidden epidemic is gaining momentum in America, experts say. Children as young as fourth-graders are deliberately inhaling the fumes of dangerous chemicals from a variety of household and office products. Inhalants, as they are known, are widely available and hard to detect, and are fueling a dangerous trend: The most reliable annual survey of drug use among children has found that inhalants are the one group of drugs in which abuse is on the rise . . .
Disease or Other Health-Related Event Descriptive Epidemiologic Clues Person Place Time All parts of America December 2001 June 2001 Children as young as 4th graders America-in all parts of the country Brain, Heart, Kidney, Liver Brain, Heart, Kidney, Liver December 2001 June 2001
Educated Guesses Hypotheses Anti-inhalant campaigns might unintentionally suggest the idea, or specific techniques, to children who do not know about them Ignorance may be the bigger problem Parents seem to be in the dark
Stating Educated Guesses as Hypotheses • The hypothesis will sound like a prediction • Be sure to include: 1) the population to be compared; 2) the hypothesized cause; and 3) the hypothesized health-related effect (type and/or direction) • Examples from previous slide and possible re-statements
All team members participate Most team members participate Some team members participate All use is appropriate and accurate Most use is appropriate and accurate Some use is appropriate and accurate Identified Not identified All identified and sorted correctly Most identified and sorted correctly Some identified and sorted correctly All identified Most identified Some identified Presentation Rubric Criteria Got It Getting It Will Get It Soon Participation Use of Epi Talk Disease or Health-Related Event Descriptive Epi Clues Hypotheses
Investigation 2-2 has ended. In the News
Re-Cap • Big Ideas in this Lesson (2-2) • Person, place, and time (PPT) describes a disease or other health-related condition in terms of “who, where, and when” • PPT information often leads to more than one reasonable hypothesis • Some news reports give information about PPT and discuss hypotheses • Hypothesis statements in epidemiology should include: 1) the population to be compared; 2) the hypothesized cause; and 3) the hypothesized health effect or behavior. This project is supported by a Science Education Drug Abuse Partnership Award, Grant Number 1R24DA016357-01, from the National Institute on Drug Abuse, National Institutes of Health.
