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how to make. decisions. you probably. won’t regret. ?. =. equally distant equally yummy. ?. ZAT!. new!. VAM!. IMPROVED!. Now with FREMIN!. this is not a decision. old. new. way. way. mastery conservation maintenance control. challenge innovation leadership risk.
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how to make decisions you probably won’t regret
? = equally distant equally yummy
? ZAT! new! VAM! IMPROVED! Now with FREMIN! this is not a decision
old new way way
mastery conservation maintenance control challenge innovation leadership risk this is not a decision
time process ingredients
how many options? one way or two? single or daisy chained? is risk a factor? single or multiple value?
N Y Y N vs. vs. too much choice? N N Y Y vs. vs.
N Y Y N N Y vs. N N Y Y Y N vs.
Y vs. N
invent a transformative technology leap scramble an egg get a tattoo paint over timber betray a trust any-ectomy introduce a species start an addiction know clone modify genes spread misinformation amputate hit ‘send’ invade iraq hire a divorce lawyer uncork a genie
Flip a coin best if we do worst if we do Both good Any options reversible? Very different outcomes? best if we don’t Nah Nah worst if we don’t Yep Yep Both bad Try reversible option/s first Go best outcome Try the new one
Flip a coin Both good Nah the lesser of two weevils Both bad “When choosing between two evils, I choose the one I haven’t tried before” Try the new one
take it? or leave it?
worst best DON’T NEED IT, GOT IT NEED IT, GOT IT take it? or DON’T NEED IT, AIN’T GOT IT NEED IT, AIN’T GOT IT leave it?
outcomes best worst life affirmed confidence perspective death jump choices timidity resentment do worse stress-free afternoon don’t
outcomes interest rates go up interest rates go down you get a good deal fix the rate of your loan you miss out on a bargain choices loan will cost more than you can afford loan will cost more than you can afford you get a good deal don’t fix the rate
worst best best if we do worst if we do do best if we don’t worst if we don’t don’t
outcomes best worst #1 #2 Copy great people Designer species Beat death Ruin natural order Multiple rich Multiple tyrants do choices Use the resources to help others Solve some real problems We remain mortal don’t #3 #4
outcomes best worst what if you develop ‘em and they leave? what if you develop ‘em and they stay? develop choices what if you don’t… and they leave? what if you don’t … and they stay? don’t
buy? here? sell up? there? flat? house? rent? up? best if we don’t renovate? wort if we don’t back? stay? sub-let? extend?
nope best if we do worst if we do best if we do best if we do best if we do worst if we do worst if we do worst if we do best if we do best if we do best if we do best if we do best if we do best if we do worst if we do worst if we do worst if we do worst if we do worst if we do worst if we do yep yep nope best if we don’t best if we don’t best if we don’t best if we don’t best if we don’t best if we don’t best if we don’t best if we don’t best if we don’t best if we don’t worst if we don’t worst if we don’t worst if we don’t worst if we don’t worst if we don’t worst if we don’t worst if we don’t worst if we don’t worst if we don’t worst if we don’t
outcomes lose win A options B C
outcomes lose win This would be cool This I would regret A This would be way cool This I dread most of all options B This I desire most of all This would piss me off C
outcomes lose win This would be cool This I would regret A This I desire most of all This I dread most of all options B This would be way cool This would piss me off C
100 100% guaranteed catastrophe long shot disaster how much are we risking? pain guaranteed embarrassment unlikely nuisance what are the odds? 0 100
pain odds
NO WHOA pain GO odds
we mitigate the effects and save the future of the world #1 best true worst #2 we slow the problem and prevent making it as bad as it could be act #3 knowledge that we did the best with what we knew at the time best false #4 worst we ruined the economy, destroyed whole industries for nothing #5 we enjoyed our lifestyle to the very last moment best true worst #6 global social, ecological, economic collapse relax #7 best celebrate our dumb luck and enjoy our lifestyle again false worst #8 never trust another scientist again
we mitigate the effects and save the future of the world #1 best true worst #2 we slow the problem and prevent making it as bad as it could be act #3 knowledge that we did the best with what we knew at the time best false #4 worst we ruined the economy, destroyed whole industries for nothing #5 we enjoyed our lifestyle to the very last moment best true worst #6 global social, ecological, economic collapse relax #7 best celebrate our dumb luck and enjoy our lifestyle again false worst #8 never trust another scientist again
take advice from whoever can afford to be wrong act relax
SOLAROLEX? HOVERBEETLE? HANDIAL? PINEONION? ALPHABOARD? BABYVICTA? MPWAVE?
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 high value low effort go for it value effort 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 work up to it high value high effort scale it down value effort 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 value pump it up lose it effort low value low effort 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 value run away effort low value high effort 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 profit? customer value? reputation? political influence? community benefit? capacity building? leadership? awesomeness? high value low effort value 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 effort time? resources? relationship damage? cultural drag? structural drag?
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