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QSE Managers Working Group

This report summarizes the QSE Managers Working Group meeting held on November 10, 2009, covering topics such as Wind Plant Availability Website, Wind Generation Forecast Accuracy, and Load Forecasting Accuracy.

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QSE Managers Working Group

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  1. QSE Managers Working Group Meeting Notes November 10, 2009 Report to WMS November 18, 2009 Jennifer Troutman – Vice Chair

  2. QSE Managers Working Group Topics • Wind Plant Availability Website • Wind Generation Forecast Accuracy Analysis • Ancillary Services Procurement Methodology • Load Forecasting Accuracy • Decommitment Process for RPRS

  3. Wind Plant Availability Website • Approximately 30 users are entering outages • Difficult to determine how many Market Participants that translates into • Some Market Participants reporting that the AWS outage scheduler can only be used for one hour at a time • For example, for an outage for HE 2-10, 9 separate outages would have to entered • ERCOT going to perform high level review whether data is improving forecast

  4. WGRPP Forecast Accuracy Analysis • ERCOT is now receiving good MET data for all points from over 50 WGRs • Additional improvement and increase in the number of points being submitted • ERCOT was to analyze impact of moving from a P80 to P50 • Some members may draft PRR to at least change to a P50 forecast in the on peak hours

  5. WGRPP Forecast Accuracy Analysis Based on Day Ahead resource plans submitted by QSE’s compared to aggregate WGRPP AWS forecast in order to scale the STWPF.

  6. September Data in Histogram Risk of Shortages Risk of Over Commitment

  7. WGRPP Forecast ERCOT is now providing the forecast to WGRs via XML ERCOT going to issue notice soon that it will discontinue providing it via email ERCOT Client Services going to poll WGRs to be sure that no one is still using email process

  8. Load Forecast Analysis • QMWG going to work with ERCOT to schedule Load Forecasting Workshop • Will coordinate efforts with the PUCT • Reviewed ERCOT’s Replacement Reserve Service Monthly Reports • Going to ask ERCOT SME to review in detail at next meeting

  9. Load Forecast Accuracy

  10. Load Forecast Accuracy

  11. Decommitment Process for RPRS • ERCOT is drafting PRR language for this • Operations Support • Settlements • Market Participants want to focus efforts on creating a Nodal decommitment process

  12. Next Meeting • Next Meeting: December 2, 2009 • Topics • Wind Generation Forecast Accuracy • Load Forecasting Accuracy • Nodal Decommitment Process for RUC • Wind Generation Nodal Issues

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