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Shaping the Future In a Global Web of Knowledge

Shaping the Future In a Global Web of Knowledge. 2011 EAM – Conference Bengaluru, 27 June, 2011. Arun Maira. Forces of Change : Information; Ideas Tools for Progress : Institutions, Innovation Agency for Change : Leadership . Shaping the Future In a Global Web of Knowledge.

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Shaping the Future In a Global Web of Knowledge

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  1. Shaping the Future In a Global Web of Knowledge 2011 EAM – Conference Bengaluru, 27 June, 2011 Arun Maira

  2. Forces of Change : Information; Ideas Tools for Progress : Institutions, Innovation Agency for Change : Leadership Shaping the Future In a Global Web of Knowledge Challenges: Inclusive; Sustainable

  3. RISING DEMAND FOR BASIC RIGHTS THE WORLD IN 2035 ? DEMOCRACY HUMAN RIGHTS Autocracies 1977:89; 2009:23 Concept of “MDG” (2000)

  4. PEOPLE ARE NOT IN THE DARK Cellphones : Elite to Masses India : 2000 < 5m 2010 > 750 m Google– daily hits 1997 – Zero 2009 > 700m ACCESS TO INFORMATION THE WORLD IN 2035 ? DEMOCRACY HUMAN RIGHTS Autocracies 1977:89; 2009:23 Concept of “MDG” (2000)

  5. EXCEEDING THE CAPACITY OF THE EARTH Cellphones : Elite to Masses India : 2000 < 5m 2010 > 750 m Google– daily hits 1997 – Zero 2009 > 700m ACCESS TO INFORMATION THE WORLD IN 2035 ? DEMOCRACY HUMAN RIGHTS Mankind's global footprint 1960 : 60% of global bio- capacity 2007 : 130% Autocracies 1977:89; 2009:23 Concept of “MDG” (2000) CLIMATE CHANGE

  6. GROWTH IS NOT INCLUSIVE ACCESS TO INFORMATION Cellphones : Elite to Masses India : 2000 < 5m 2010 > 750 m Google– daily hits 1997 – Zero 2009 > 700m "Wealth of Bill Gates and Warren Buffet equals the wealth of the 100 million poorest Americans" THE WORLD IN 2035 ? CAPITALISM FREE MARKETS DEMOCRACY HUMAN RIGHTS Mankind's global footprint 1960 : 60% of global bio- capacity 2007 : 130% Autocracies 1977:89; 2009:23 Concept of “MDG” 2000) CLIMATE CHANGE

  7. INNOVATION GROWTH IS NOT INCLUSIVE REINVENTING THE WHEEL OF PROGRESS UPRISING FOR BASIC RIGHTS PEOPLE ARE NOT IN THE DARK EXCEEDING THE CAPACITY OF THE EARTH

  8. CONFLICTING INSTITUTIONS MARKETS/CAPITALISM MULTI-NATIONAL CORPORATIONS INFORMATION FLOWS CONNECTIVITY BUSINESS INSTITUTIONS SOCIO-POLITICAL INSTITUTIONS COUNTRIES CONSTITUTIONS LEGAL CONTRACTS TRUST RESPECT COMMUNITIES 'TRIBES'/HUMAN BEINGS HUMAN RIGHTS/DEMOCRACY

  9. NEW SKILLS FOR LEADERS Diversity of interests and capabilities of multiple stakeholders Increasing unpredictability due to global complexity WHAT MAY HAPPEN? WHO IS THE BOSS? Challenge in coordination Challenge in setting direction

  10. INDIA RISINGA Large Economy of Poor People GDP vs GDP per capita in 2050 GDP vs GDP per capita in 2002 GDP (US$ Bn) GDP (US$ Bn) China US US India Germany France Italy Japan Germany India Russia China Japan UK Brazil Italy Brazil France Russia UK GDP per capita (US$) GDP per capita (US$) Bubble size corresponds to GDP size Source: Goldman Sachs Economic Paper # 99, BCG Analysis

  11. THE DEMOGRAPHIC DIVIDEND ~ 480 Million people are under the age of 18

  12. THE DEMOGRAPHIC DIVIDEND ~ 480 Million people are under the age of 18

  13. THE DEMOGRAPHIC DIVIDEND Less than 40% of Indian children complete school (Std X) - Only 75% to Class V • 45% of Indian children malnourished • (almost half of the world’s malnourished children) ~ 480 Million people are under the age of 18

  14. THE DEMOGRAPHIC DIVIDEND Less than 40% of Indian children complete school (Std X) - Only 75% to Class V • 45% of Indian children malnourished • (almost half of the world’s malnourished children) Only 31% of Indians have adequate sanitation facilities ~ 480 Million people are under the age of 18

  15. THE DEMOGRAPHIC DIVIDEND • 45% of Indian children malnourished • (almost half of the world’s malnourished children) Less than 40% of Indian children complete school (Std X) - Only 75% to Class V Only 31% of Indians have adequate sanitation facilities ~ 480 Million people are under the age of 18

  16. WHICH WAY INDIA ? Engaging a diverse nation democratically in the quest for inclusive, sustainable growth Models of Change and Leadership

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  18. BUFFALOES WALLOWING “ATAKTA BHARAT” : INDIA GETTING STUCK Integration with the world Exclusive growth and development Inclusive growth and development Isolation from the world

  19. BIRDS SCRAMBLING WOLVES PROWLING BOLLY WORLD Integration with the world Exclusive growth and development Inclusive growth and development Isolation from the world

  20. “PAHALE INDIA” : INDIA FIRST Integration with the world FIREFLIES ARISING Exclusive growth and development Inclusive growth and development Isolation for the world

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  23. APPROACH PROPOSED (IN 2000) Fireflies Arising STRATEGIES • Enable children and women to access relevant knowledge through new technology • Facilitate local initiatives • Strengthen infrastructure • Develop new models and skills of leadership • Propagate successful stories and build confidence Peacocks Strutting Wolves Prowling SOUND MACRO-ECONOMIC FRAMEWORK Buffaloes Wallowing

  24. FIREFLIES ARISING MOBILE PHONE SUBSCRIBERS 2010 : 752 m 2008 : 275 m 2004 : 34 m 2000 : 2 m (Source : Telephone Regulatory Authority of India)

  25. FIREFLIES ARISING MOBILE PHONE SUBSCRIBERS 2010 : 752 m 2008 : 275 m 2004 : 34 m 2000 : 2 m (Source : Telephone Regulatory Authority of India) MICRO FINANCE CLIENTS 2012 : 60 million (Est) 2009 : 23 million 2007 : 10 million (Source : Lok Capital)

  26. FIREFLIES ARISING MOBILE PHONE SUBSCRIBERS 2010 : 752 m 2008 : 275 m 2004 : 34 m 2000 : 2 m (Source : Telephone Regulatory Authority of India) MICRO FINANCE CLIENTS 2012 : 60 million (Est) 2009 : 23 million 2007 : 10 million (Source : Lok Capital) Enrolments in Emerging India Awards for SMEs * 2010 : 300,000 2005 : 5,000 Credit to SMEs increased five fold in last 5 years

  27. FIREFLIES ARISING MOBILE PHONE SUBSCRIBERS 2010 : 752 m 2008 : 275 m 2004 : 34 m 2000 : 2 m (Source : Telephone Regulatory Authority of India) MICRO FINANCE CLIENTS 2012 : 60 million (Est) 2009 : 23 million 2007 : 10 million (Source : Lok Capital) BANK LINKED SELF- HELP GROUPS (March’ 10) 6.9 million, of which 5.3 million women groups (Source : NABARD) Enrolments in Emerging India Awards for SMEs * 2010 : 300,000 2005 : 5,000 Credit to SMEs increased five fold in last 5 years

  28. LEADER : HE (OR SHE) WHO TAKES THE FIRST STEPS TOWARDS A GOAL HE DEEPLY CARES ABOUT, AND IN WAYS THAT OTHERS WISH TO FOLLOW

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