SUMER

1. Dokuz Eylul University Water Resources Management Research and Application Center SUMER SMARTSustainable Management of Scarce Resources in the Coastal Zone WP05 – Turkish Case Study Compilation of the Socio-Economic DataandScenario Prediction 12–15 September 2004 Hammamet, TUNISIA

2. SUMER Dokuz Eylul University Water Resources Management Research and Application Center Socio-economic data compilation and assessment has been done according to the directives and clues stated byFEEMconcerning the indicators and scenario prediction. • Impacts on the system • Reactions of that system and, • Their interactions are interpreted as a transaction chain

3. SUMER Dokuz Eylul University Water Resources Management Research and Application Center WATER SUPPLY WATER DEMAND By determining indicators and related parameters, it is possible to evaluate the future water demand & supply assumptions and create management scenarios

4. Dokuz Eylul University Water Resources Management Research and Application Center SUMER Economical, social and environmental dimensions are considered and emphasized that the sustainability is in the cross-section of these three dimensions. Three scenarios are considered: -Business as usual -Optimistic -Pessimistic For each scenario, sustainability indicators are determined and all scenarios are compared to each other.

5. Dokuz Eylul University Water Resources Management Research and Application Center SUMER Immigration from rural to urban areas Insufficient Maintenance&Operation Population Growth Basin-out water supply Over Exploitation of Groundwater for irrigation Increase in Urban Population No new investment for Irrigation Water Conveyance Systems Low Precipitation Increase in Irrigated Area Insufficient Financial Status for Domestic Water Supply Infrastructure Investments Groundwater Pollution Change in Crop Pattern No new investment for better irrigation methods Increase in irrigation water pricing Surface Water Pollution Increase in Industrial Ground & Surface Water Use High irrigation water loss INCREASE IN DOMESTIC WATER DEMAND INCREASE IN INDUSTRIAL WATER DEMAND INCREASE IN IRRIGATION WATER DEMAND INSUFFICIENT WATER SUPPLY

6. Dokuz Eylul University Water Resources Management Research and Application Center SUMER • There is an existing and successful birth control policy in Turkey. In scenario construction, birth control has taken into consideration for BAU and optimistic scenarios. For eastern parts of Turkey, birth control is not fully successful in rural areas, hence such a situation is also taken into account in pessimistic scenario. • High immigration rate from rural to urban areas causes increase in urban population growth rate for pessimistic scenario; for optimistic scenario, birth and death rates are balanced in urban areas, only the immigration is considered, because there is a descending trend in rural population in last ten years.

7. Dokuz Eylul University Water Resources Management Research and Application Center SUMER • A decrease in average precipitationrate has only been considered in pessimistic scenario, regarding historical drought periods that last more than 6 years with a decrease of 40% in precipitation. • Groundwater and surface water supplieshave also been considered as in decreasing situation in pessimistic scenario due to precipitation.

8. Dokuz Eylul University Water Resources Management Research and Application Center SUMER • There is already some basin-out water transfers in order to meet Izmir municipality’s domestic water; furthermore there are two on-going projects, which will supply industrial and domestic water for adjacent basins at the end. • An increase in optimistic and pessimistic scenarios are foreseen for domestic water use due to accelerated increase expected because of immigration and improving life standards.

9. Dokuz Eylul University Water Resources Management Research and Application Center SUMER • For irrigation water use, in optimistic scenario, decrease is expected regarding better irrigation methods, in pessimistic scenario; increase is foreseen due to worse management policies, crop pattern changes and insufficient public awareness. • In optimistic scenario,irrigation water loss rate decreases due to better conveyance system and sufficient maintenance.

10. Dokuz Eylul University Water Resources Management Research and Application Center SUMER • No change in irrigated area is expected. • There is a dam in construction which will supply industrial water, hence surface water is also expected to be utilized to meet increasing industrial water demand.

11. Variables/driving forces Baseline BAU Optimistic pessimistic SUMER Birth control existing Existing (partially successful) Existing (successful) Existing (unsuccessful) Urban growth rate 923 000 1.5 %/y 1 %/y 3 %/y Rural growth rate 704 000 - 1 % /y -1 % /y -2 % /y Precipitation rate 700 mm/y 0 % 0% -10% Groundwater supply 9 mm/y 0 % 0 % -10% Surface water supply 52 mm/y 0 % 0 % - 10% Groundwater pollution Class IV Class IV Class III Class IV Basin-out water supply(surface&groundwater) 0.2 mm/y 0.2 mm/y 0.4 mm/y 0.5 mm/y Domestic water use 7.4 mm/y 0% 0.5 %/y 2.5 %/y Industrial water use (groundwater) 3 mm/y 0% 4%/y 8%/y Irrigation water use 39 mm/y 0%/y - 40% 15% Domestic water supply investments sufficient sufficient sufficient insufficient Change in crop pattern Cotton, grape, corn Cotton, grape, corn Grape, vegetable,corn Cotton, grape Irrig. m&o investments insufficient insufficient Sufficient insufficient Loss rate in irrigation system 30 % 30 % 10% 30% Irrigated area 1070 km2 0% 0% 0% Industrial water use (surface water) 0 mm 0 mm 0 mm 4 mm Surface water quality Class IV Class IV Class III Class IV Water exploitation awareness Insufficient awareness Insufficient awareness Comprehensive awareness Insufficient awareness Dokuz Eylul University Water Resources Management Research and Application Center

12. Dokuz Eylul University Water Resources Management Research and Application Center SUMER

13. Dokuz Eylul University Water Resources Management Research and Application Center SUMER Scenarios applied to assessment of irrigation water demand in Gediz River Basin in the scope of a under-graduate thesis. • Through the use of Blaney-Criddle method, monthly water demand of each type of plant has been determined. • For major irrigated areas; • Crop patterns • Irrigation conveyance systems • Irrigation methods • have been evaluated regarding ongoing trends in management, operation and farmer preferences.

14. Dokuz Eylul University Water Resources Management Research and Application Center SUMER • For BAU, existing trends are assumed to be prevented; existing irrigation conveyance system losses are 40%. • For optimistic scenario, cotton-vegetable-corn-grape are assumed as dominating crop pattern; irrigation conveyance system losses are assumed as 10%. • For pessimistic scenario 1oC temperature increase, 10% decrease in monthly rainfall and cotton-fruit-corn-grape are assumed as dominating crop pattern,

15. Dokuz Eylul University Water Resources Management Research and Application Center SUMER • Major irrigated areas which have long-term data (1994-2002) • High corelation between market prices and crop pattern • Conveyance systems should be improved !

16. Dokuz Eylul University Water Resources Management Research and Application Center SUMER THANK YOU !