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Canada Committed to a Nuclear Future

Canada Committed to a Nuclear Future. Presented to the 15 th Pacific Basin Nuclear Conference by Milton Caplan President, MZConsulting Inc. 2006 October 17. Canada. Electricity Crisis.

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Canada Committed to a Nuclear Future

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  1. Canada Committed to a Nuclear Future Presented to the 15th Pacific Basin Nuclear Conference by Milton Caplan President, MZConsulting Inc. 2006 October 17

  2. Canada

  3. Electricity Crisis "After more than a decade of mismanagement in Ontario's electricity sector, our ability to keep the lights on has been compromised. It is absolutely critical that we move forward quickly to boost new supply, increase conservation and maintain price stability for consumers so that we can ensure continued prosperity in the province." “Ontario needs to refurbish, rebuild, replace or conserve 25,000 megawatts of generating capacity by the year 2020 to meet growing demand while replacing its polluting coal-fired generating plants. That represents 80 per cent of Ontario's current generating capacity and would require an investment of $25 to $40 billion.”

  4. Action Taken • Updated the Electricity Act • Created the Ontario Power Authority (OPA) • Installed the first Chief Conservation Officer • Planned and implemented a number of procurement projects including renewables, clean energy projects and nuclear restarts

  5. Procurement Initiatives and Assumptions

  6. Gap in 2025 after Procurements

  7. OPA Supply Mix Advice • In June, 2005 the Minister requested that the OPA on the future supply mix making recommendations on targets for: • Conservation • Renewable energy supply • The appropriate mix for the balance of the system

  8. Generation Mix in Ontario 2005 By Capacity By Energy

  9. Combined Environmental Impacts and Cost Ranges - Base Load

  10. No Single Answer • No single resource meets all of the requirements, therefore the Advice recommends: • Maximizing the use of conservation and renewables • A “Smart Gas” strategy using gas for intermediate and peak loads • Nuclear for base load generation

  11. Benefits of Nuclear Power • that nuclear power provides environmental benefits in that it does not emit green house gases, and there has been progress on the issue of nuclear waste by the NWMO; • well managed nuclear continues to be a low cost option relative to others; the technology is proven and both Bruce Power and OPG now have extensive experience in the successful management of the technology; • there has been recent successes in delivering projects on time and on budget; and • the fuel source is indigenous supporting security of supply.

  12. The Role of Nuclear • System has benefited from the restart of Pickering Units 1&4 and Bruce Units 3&4 • Bruce Unit 1&2 Restart Project was committed • Advice recommended that • Existing units should be refurbished where economic • New units should be considered to supplement the refurbishment program

  13. Minister’s Response OPA Advice Minister’s Response Installed Capacity 2025 (MW)

  14. Next Step - IPSP • OPA has started to prepare the first Integrated Power System Plan (IPSP) • 20 year plan revised every 3 years • Plan to be completed by March 2007 • Approved following review by the OEB

  15. Nuclear Progress • OPG is actively studying the refurbishment of Pickering B • Bruce Power has made an application to the CNSC for new build nuclear • OPG has made application to the CNSC for new build nuclear

  16. Crisis Averted? • Aug 1, 2006 Ontario reached a new peak demand of 27,005 MW • Plans to remove coal have been delayed • Procurements are proceeding, some projects are experiencing delay • There is more work to be done to achieve a long term sustainable solution

  17. Summary • Ontario electricity supply system was in crisis after years of neglect • Dramatic action has been taken to secure a reliable supply system for the future • Nuclear power is and will continue to be the back bone of electricity supply Canada is Committed to a Nuclear Future !

  18. Thank You Milt Caplan Tel: 647.271.4442 mzconsulting@rogers.com www.mzconsultinginc.com

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