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Enhancing Hurricane Prediction: GFDL/URI Coupled Model

Collaborative research improves hurricane forecast accuracy by integrating wave dynamics. Initial results show potential impact on storm intensity and structure. Future focus on heat flux and transition to Hurricane WRF model.

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Enhancing Hurricane Prediction: GFDL/URI Coupled Model

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  1. Improving air-sea flux parameterization in the GFDL/URI Coupled Hurricane-Wave-Ocean Model for Transition to Operations Isaac Ginis Il Ju Moon, Tetsu Hara, Biju Thomas University of Rhode Island and Morris Bender NOAA/GFDL Collaborations: H. Tolman (EMC/NCEP) E. Walsh (ETL/NOAA) S. Belcher (UR, UK)

  2. Drag and Heat Exchange Coefficients vs Wind Speed in the GFDL Operational Model • Based on simple bulk parameterization. • States of growth of wind waves relative to local wind forcing is neglected. Cd Ch

  3. Coupled Wave-Wind (CWW) Model • Near the peak : NCEPWAVEWATCH III wave model. • High frequency part : Equilibrium spectrum model of Hara and Belcher (2002) Two dimensional wave spectrum: Full wave spectrum Near peak High frequency part Wave Boundary Layer Model Explicitly calculates wave-induced stress 25 3 2 1 - max 0 -1 Wind profile and drag coefficient over any given seas

  4. Wave-Wind Simulations in Real Hurricanes

  5. GPS sonde observation under various hurricanes (Powell et al., 2003). Cd estimated from CWW model hurricane simulations WAVEWATCH III • At high wind speeds, Cd levels off and even decrease with wind speed • Under hurricane wind forcing waves areextremely youngat high wind speeds and the young waves producesmall drag. Upper and lower bounds from CWW model

  6. Operational GFDL/URI Model Coupled Hurricane-Wave-Ocean Model Atmosphere Atmosphere GFDL Hurricane Model GFDL(WRF) Hurricane Model Wind & Air Temp. Flux Wind & Air Temp. Flux SST Wave Boundary Model SST SST & Current Wave Spectra Flux Flux Currents, NCEP WAVEWATCH III POM (HYCOM) POM Elevations, & SST Ocean Ocean Waves

  7. Hurricane Ivan, Initial time: 00Z 12 Sep

  8. Hurricane Ivan, Initial time: 00Z 12 Sep

  9. Summary • We have developed acoupled hurricane-wave-ocean by coupling the GFDL/URI hurricane-ocean model with the NCEP WAVEWATCH III wave model and a wave boundary layer model. • Preliminary simulations indicate that the hurricane intensity and structure can be significantly effected by explicit simulations of surface waves. • More real-case simulations will be done in the nearest future to assess the impact of wave coupling on hurricane predictions. • Future work will be directed toward improving the heat flux parameterization in the coupled model and transitioning to the Hurricane WRF.

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