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MM5 Assessment Nelson Seaman 10 October 2002

MM5 Assessment Nelson Seaman 10 October 2002. The BRAVO Study: August-October 1999. MM5 Configuration:. Domains: Triply nested grids: Continental: Dx = 36 km Regional: Dx = 12 km High-resolution: Dx = 4 km Vertical resolution: 35 layers Lowest layer at 18 m AGL. MM5 domain locations.

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MM5 Assessment Nelson Seaman 10 October 2002

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  1. MM5 AssessmentNelson Seaman10 October 2002 The BRAVO Study: August-October 1999

  2. MM5 Configuration: • Domains: • Triply nested grids: • Continental: Dx = 36 km • Regional: Dx = 12 km • High-resolution: Dx = 4 km • Vertical resolution: • 35 layers • Lowest layer at 18 m AGL

  3. MM5 domain locations

  4. 12-km

  5. 4 km

  6. MM5 Configuration: • MM5v3.4 Physics for BRAVO: • Kain-Fritsch deep convection • Dudhia “simple-ice” microphysics • RRTM long-wave radiation • Gayno-Seaman 1.5-order TKE PBL

  7. MM5 Configuration: • Four-Dimensional Data Assimilation • Analysis Nudging: Assimilate analyses on 36-km and 12-km domains. • Observation Nudging: Assimilate BRAVO and AIRS obs on 12-km and 4-km domains. • Surface Flux Nudging: For sensible and latent heat fluxes (Alapaty et al. 2001).

  8. MM5 Run Periods: • 36-km and 12-km domains run for the entire BRAVO period from August-October 1999 • 4-km domain run for 2 intensive modeling periods: • 7-17 October 1999 • 15-25 August 1999

  9. Meteorological InputsWind Flow on October 7 at 3 p.m. Surface Layer: 18 m AGL

  10. NCEP Surface Analysis

  11. Emissions of Sea Salt Sodium CMAQ

  12. Surface-layer wind speed averaged on 4-km domain: Green: MM5 Asterisks: Observed

  13. Boundary-layer wind speed averaged on 4-km domain: Red: MM5 Asterisks: Observed

  14. Surface-layer wind direction averaged on 4-km domain: Green: MM5 Asterisks: Observed

  15. Boundary-layer wind direction averaged on 4-km domain: Red: MM5 Asterisks: Observed

  16. Surface-layer temperature averaged on 4-km domain: Green: MM5 Asterisks: Observed

  17. Surface-layer mixing ratio averaged on 4-km domain: Green: MM5 Asterisks: Observed

  18. Surface-layer wind speed averaged on 12-km domain: Green: MM5 Asterisks: Observed

  19. Boundary-layer wind speed averaged on 12-km domain: Red: MM5 Asterisks: Observed

  20. Surface-layer wind direction averaged on 12-km domain: Green: MM5 Asterisks: Observed

  21. Boundary-layer wind direction averaged on 12-km domain: Red: MM5 Asterisks: Observed

  22. Surface-layer temperature averaged on 12-km domain: Green: MM5 Asterisks: Observed

  23. Surface-layer mixing ratio averaged on 12-km domain: Green: MM5 Asterisks: Observed

  24. Statistical Summary of MM5 4-km BRAVO Simulations: Surface

  25. Statistical Summary of MM5 4-km BRAVO Simulations: 80-1500 m

  26. Statistical Summary MM5 12-km BRAVO Simulations: 40 m

  27. Statistical Summary MM5 12-km BRAVO Simulations: 80-1500 m

  28. Conclusions: • MM5 has reproduced the observed wind speeds quite well, compared to benchmarks. RMSEs and biases are low, both in the surface layer and planetary boundary layer. • BRAVO transport rates should be represented well.

  29. Conclusions: • MM5’s wind directions have fairly large MAE in the surface layer of the 4-km domain, but are quite good MAE in the PBL. • Wind direction MAEs are significantly more accurate on the 12-km domain. • Wind biases are very low on both domains. • BRAVO transport directions should be represented well.

  30. Conclusions: • MM5’s surface temperatures have very low MAE and average bias on the 12-km domain, where the Alapaty et al. surface-flux nudging is used. • Surface temperatures on the MM5 4-km domain have MAEs and biases that are larger than desirable. • BRAVO thermal processes and PBL depths should be represented well, especially on the 12-km domain.

  31. Conclusions: • MM5’s surface mixing ratios have very low MAEs and biases on the 12-km domain, where the Alapaty et al. surface-flux nudging is used. • Surface mixing ratios on the MM5 4-km domain have low MAEs, but biases are larger than desirable. • BRAVO boundary-layer clouds and convection should be represented well, especially on the 12-km domain. However, the default soil moisture is too high.

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