Professor Virginia Murray Member of Science and Technical committee for UN International Strategy for Disaster Reductio

1. Science and Disaster Reduction – an update from the UNISDR Science & Technical Committee Professor Virginia Murray Member of Science and Technical committee for UN International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR) Meeting of the European National Platforms and HFA Focal Points London, 11-13 November 2009

2. UNISDR Scientific and Technical committee Highlight of key findings of First Scientific & Technical Committee report for Global Platform Other projects Reflections on how the Committee findings can help the meeting of the National Platforms and HFA Focal Points in DRR research and scientific evidence base Outline

3. http://www.berr.gov.uk/files/file8511.pdf After the Tsunami2004

5. http://www.preventionweb.net/english/hyogo/isdr/mechanisms/ advises the Global Platform advocates for and guides policy and actions related to scientific and technical issues within the ISDR System, for informed decision making and public awareness Science is considered here in its widest sense to include the natural, environmental, social, economic, health and engineering sciences, and the term "technical" includes relevant matters of technology, engineering practice and implementation. Scientific and Technical Committee

6. to provide advice & to make recommendations on priorities for scientific & technical attention by ISDR System to propose & organize specific enquiries to investigate & report on priority matters to advise on relevant elements of Joint Work Programme to provide guidance to scientific & technical work of ISDR thematic partnerships to stimulate dialogue & innovation including promotion of good practice to report annually to the Chair of the ISDR System on matters within its mandate Scientific and Technical Committee

7. First meeting January 2008 Second meeting October 2008 Third meeting June 2009 Scientific and Technical Committee

8. Dr. Walter Erdelen (Chair of the STC), Assistant Director General, Natural Sciences, France, representing UNESCO Dr. Howard Moore, Senior Advisor, ICSU Secretariat, representing ICSU Dr. Juan Carlos Villagrán de León, Head, Risk Management Section, UNU–EHS, Germany, representing UNU Dr. Samir Ben Yahmed, Director, Health Action in Crises, Switzerland, representing WHO Dr. Geoff Love, Director Weather and Disaster Risk Reduction Services Department, Switzerland, representing WMO Dr. Walter Ammann*, President, Global Risk Forum (GRF Davos), Switzerland UNISDR Secretariat Professor Ilan Chabay*, Chalmers University of Technology, Sweden Dr. Mohamed Farghaly, Director General, Arab Academy for Science, Technology and Maritime Transport of the League of Arab States, Egypt. Professor Mohsen Ghafory-Ashtiany, International Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Seismology (IIEES), Iran Professor Harsh Gupta*, National Geophysical Research Institute (NGRI), India Dr. He Yongnian, China Earthquake Administration, China Professor Gordon McBean*, Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction, The University of Western Ontario, Canada (also representing the Integrated Research on Disaster Risk (IRDR) programme) Professor Virginia Murray*, Consultant Medical Toxicologist, Health Protection Agency, United Kingdom Professor Laban A. Ogallo, Director, IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC), Kenya Dr. Kaoru Takara, Vice Director, Disaster Prevention Research Institute (DPRI), Kyoto University, Japan Professor Dennis Wenger, National Science Foundation, United States Current Membership

9. STC Subcommittee for drafting and design of report Dr. Walter Ammann*, President, Global Risk Forum (GRF Davos), Switzerland Professor Ilan Chabay*, Chalmers University of Technology, Sweden Professor Harsh Gupta*, National Geophysical Research Institute (NGRI), India Professor Gordon McBean*, (Chair)Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction, The University of Western Ontario, Canada Professor Virginia Murray*, Consultant Medical Toxicologist, Health Protection Agency, United Kingdom (Dr Delphine Grynzpan and Louise Dowling, UK Health Protection Agency, researched and assembled the first draft under Professor Virginia Murray’s guidance.) Dr. Reid Basher coordinated and edited the report for the UNISDR. First project: First Scientific & Technical Committee report for Global Platform October 2008

10. Climate change Changing institutional and public behaviour to early warnings Knowledge of the wide health impacts of disasters Improving resilience to disasters through social and economic understanding Topics selected

11. (i) Promote knowledge into action (ii) Use a problem-solving approach that integrates all hazards and disciplines (iii) Support systematic science programmes (iv) Guide good practice in scientific and technical aspects of disaster risk reduction Recommendations covered

12. Greater priority should be put on sharing and disseminating scientific information and translating it into practical methods that can readily be integrated into policies, regulations and implementation plans concerning disaster risk reduction. Education on all levels, comprehensive knowledge management, and greater involvement of science in public awareness-raising and education campaigns should be strengthened. Specific innovations should be developed to facilitate the incorporation of science inputs in policymaking (i) Promote knowledge into action

13. A holistic, all-hazards, risk-based, problem-solving approach should be used to address the multi-factoral nature of disaster risk and disaster risk reduction and to achieve improved solutions and better-optimised use of resources. This requires the collaboration of all stakeholders, including suitable representatives of governmental institutions, scientific and technical specialists and members of the communities at risk. (ii) Use a problem-solving approach that integrates all hazards and disciplines - 1

14. Knowledge sharing and collaboration between disciplines and sectors should be made a central feature of the approach, in order to guide scientific research to make knowledge available for faster implementation, to bridge the various gaps between risks, disciplines, and the stake-holders and to support education and training, and information and media communication (ii) Use a problem-solving approach that integrates all hazards and disciplines - 2

15. Systematic programmes of scientific research, observations and capacity buildingshould be supported at national, regional and international levels to address current problems and emerging risks such as are identified in this report. The international Integrated Research on Disaster Risk (IRDR) Programme, which is co-sponsored by ICSU, ISSC, and UNISDR, provides a new and important framework for global collaboration. The ISDR Scientific and Technical Committee should providestrategic guidance on research needs for disaster risk reduction and oversight of progress (iii) Support systematic science programmes

16. S&TC should be strengthened to serve as a neutral, credible international resource to support practitioners at all levels, from local through national to international levels, by overseeing the collection, vetting and publicising of information on good practices carried out on the basis of sound science and up-to-date scientific and technological knowledge, as well as on those inadequate practices or concepts that may be hindering progress. (iv) Guide good practice in scientific & tech-nical aspects of disaster risk reduction - 1

17. The Committee should further develop its recommendations for follow-up on the areas of concern highlighted in the present report, including on the themes of disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation, preparedness and early warning systems, health impacts of disasters, and the association of disaster risk and socioeconomic factors. (iv) Guide good practice in scientific & tech-nical aspects of disaster risk reduction - 2

21. “stressed the necessity for investment in research and development and higher education, and for the more effective integration of science and technical information into policy and practice.” Chairman’s conclusion – point 5

22. Subcommittee on all hazard disaster databaseswas established, comprising Prof. Murray (Chair), Dr. Ammann, Prof. Ghafory-Ashtiany, Prof. Ogallo, Prof. McBean, Dr. Takara and Prof. Wenger, draft terms of reference for initial scoping work developed Another project from 3rd meeting June 2009

23. To understand how data/information relating to all risks, hazards and disaster management is collected, held and analysed To facilitate the use of high quality information by decision makers at all levels e.g. politicians, emergency planners, healthcare professionals and scientists AIMS

24. Cochrane reviews[i] report that it is a difficult task for any professional practitioner to keep up-to-date with relevant evidence in their field of interest. major bibliographic databases cover less than half world's literature and are biased towards English-language publications; textbooks, editorials and reviews that have not been prepared systematically may be unreliable; much evidence is unpublished, but unpublished evidence may be important; and more easily accessible research reports tend to exaggerate the benefits of interventions. A need to develop a checklist for assessing quality of databases and to consider methods that could be used for assessing database content scientifically [i]The Cochrane Collaboration An introduction to Cochrane reviews and The Cochrane Library. http://www.cochrane.org/reviews/clibintro.htm Cochrane reviews

25. Step 1: Formulate a question Step 2: Search for the evidence Step 3: Appraise the evidence Step 4: Apply Evidence based medicine

26. Hierarchy of research evidence in health care

27. Downstream data limitations are transferred down the chain REPORTING SOURCE DISASTER DATABASE EVIDENCE SYNTHESIS

28. Issues with primary data have already been commented on[i]. Disaster databases are only ever going to be as good as reporting sources they rely on: Subject to bias (agenda of data collector) Loose definition of people affected Methods for evaluating damages Geographical location [i] Guha-Sapir D et al. Data on Disasters: Easier Said Than Done. Disaster & Development 2006;1 (1): 155 Reporting Source

29. Lack of good quality data Lack of transparency in reporting Possible that validation undertaken but not possible for reviewer to assess Lack of identification of sources (so low reproducibility of data and difficult to assess validity of sources) No sub-group analysis possible due to data constraints Disaster Databases/ Papers

30. No ‘shortlist’ or comprehensive database of databases/ directory of databases such as the Directory of Clinical Databases (DoCDat) which can be searched Are there any bibliographic databases specific to disaster field? Evidence synthesis

31. Well developed thinking in logical steps Committee reviewing HPA prepared report and agreeing plan to develop a practical second stage project with publication of data Support from Professor Mike Clarke, Oxford University and Director of UK Cochrane Centre and other colleagues Where are we as of Friday 6th November 2009?

34. Conceptual model of topics to be assessed in special report and their links – focus will be on overlap

35. Conceptual model of links between climate change and disaster risk to be assessed by report

36. 1. Climate change: new dimensions in disaster risk, exposure, vulnerability, and resilience 2. Determinants of risks: exposure and vulnerability 3. Changes in climate extremes and their impacts on the natural physical environment 4. Changes in impacts of climate extremes: human systems and ecosystems 5. Managing the risks from climate extremes at the local level 6. Managing the risks from climate extremes at the national level 7. Managing the risks: international level and integration across scales 8. Toward a sustainable and resilient future 9. Case studies Chapter headings

41. The role of the Science and Technical Committee is vital for UNISDR and related activities So far two completed and other vital projects in development Reflections on how the Committee findings can help the meeting of the National Platforms and HFA Focal Points in DRR research and scientific evidence base Exciting and challenging opportunities for collaborative working UNISDR Scientific and Technical Committee