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Enhancing UK Migration Control Statistics

Improving accessibility, accuracy, and frequency of migration control statistics in the UK. User-friendly web-based format with detailed data by nationality and cross-cutting topics. Collaborative work with ONS and ongoing development to meet user needs.

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Enhancing UK Migration Control Statistics

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  1. Enhancing Home Office Statistics on UK Migration ControlChris Kershaw & David MatzHome Office StatisticsMigration Statistics User Forum Conference 18 September 2012

  2. Our outputs 2 years ago (August 2010) • Both annual and quarterly editions, combinations of pdf and excel • altogether 201 pages of text & 127 tables (828 KB) • Plus… • Citizenship bulletin • a further 26 pages of text & 12 tables (95 KB) • Many requests for data by nationality • “Elevator” statistics • Rounded data • Inconsistent formats & duplication

  3. From August 2011 User feedback indicated change welcome (Migration Statistics User Forum in 2010, and responses to a public consultation in 2011) • Web-based &topic-based • Shorter and focus on key points, providing longer term trends • Cross cutting topics bringing together multiple sources of data on what we know about Work, Family, Study • Improved accessibilityusing standardised formats for tables with unrounded data for every individual nationality – much more data than previously published or possible in our previous pdf/hard copy approach • User Guide containing the detailed background information

  4. From August 2012 • Based on further feedback from the Migration Statistics User Forum in autumn 2011 and UK Statistics Authority assessment (February 2012) • New front page with better navigation • shorter & more informative topic format, focussing on headline key messages higher up and more use of charts • Tables now separately identifying enforced removals and notified voluntary departures (previously combined). • New data added:- (i) work sponsorship system, and also for (ii) visas granted by category by nationality (2011 data published in February 2012, historical 2010 data added in August)

  5. August 2011 front page

  6. August 2011 Summary (page 1 of 5)

  7. New front page – links & short Summary

  8. Separately identified: (i) enforced removals (ii) port refusals who depart, and (iii) voluntary departures

  9. New data:sponsorship of migrants Skilled (Tier 2) visa applicants using Certificates of Sponsorship (CoS), year ending June 2012

  10. Working with ONS • Part of Migration Statistics Improvement Programme (MSIP) & ongoing development work • Contributions to ONS/HO/DWP joint output Migration Statistics Quarterly Report • Facilitating ONS access to data (e.g. e-borders, data on CoS and CAS and in-country extensions data now used for new LA distribution estimation) • Develop common understanding of trends in and reasons for changes in migration (e.g. contribute to ONS migration policy timeline) • Cross govt work:- Migration Reporting Working Group, Entry and Exit Working Group, IPS Steering group, propose improvements (e.g. confidence interval for net migration figure)

  11. Comparison on HO and ONS sources for study (1) Excludes dependants and student visitors for greater consistency with non-EU immigration estimates based on the International Passenger Survey (2) For periods prior to the year ending September 2008, the count of student arrivals is not comparable with student visas issued. This is because student arrival numbers include short-term students that can be excluded from the visa time series.

  12. Our ‘definite’ plans (subject to data quality etc) • Complete the back-series splitting the ‘Stateless’ category) into ‘Stateless’ and ‘Refugee’; • Historical data for the new categories of Enforced Removals and Voluntary Departures (see above; planned back to 2004, to be published November 2012); • Improvements to data on unaccompanied asylum-seeking children (UASCs) and age-disputed cases.

  13. Our ‘development’ priorities • Re-accreditation of ‘National Statistics’ status from the UK Statistics Authority • More feedback from and engagement with users to help set priorities (including this event) • More focus on presenting trends in relation to policy and other changes • Improved signposting etc -helping users to find and understand our data

  14. Trade-offs (1) Quality / Accuracy Most headline series revised less than 1% from initial publication in February to final August figures Speed of production & frequency Most headline series are produced quarterly, less than 2 months after the quarter referred to. More detail annually in August. How much detail - diverse user needs Front page Summary and topic text total 44 pages; 127 tables totalling 24 MB (+ 5 MB historical asylum data)

  15. Trade-offs (2) Improving & streamlining existing production Better presentation, meta data etc and also prioritising and focusing resource on what is really needed & not necessarily what we have ‘always produced’ This makes user input into determining our priorities all the more important Developing new data sources -potential scope for further tables on visas, CoS and CAS -E-borders -expand conceptual framework to incorporate HO data more fully New analysis -collaborative with ONS -short stories -if your eyesight is good & you are reading this: what do you suggest?

  16. Future challenges (1) • New data systems – e.g. e-borders • New IT systems - the Integrated Caseworking System (ICW) (will be more joined up but there are risks during implementation phase) • Pressure on resources – production of statistics viewed as ‘back office’ – staffing cuts of c. ⅓ during the last year • Helping users to analyse data themselves more easily – the transparency agenda

  17. Future challenges (2) • Understanding and presenting how HO data fits into the wider picture of UK and EU(etc) international migration flows and labour markets • Frequent changes to the complex flows within the UK immigration system • “Rumsfeld” - Known unknowns/gaps etc • Irregular migration • Longitudinal analysis of migrants through the UK’s immigration system (some research/analysis does exist e.g. The Migrant Journey, but difficult to produce routinely as relies on matching) • Non-response biases in survey data related to migrants/nationality • Definitional issues • Measurement of social and economic impacts (but perhaps research rather than regular statistics)

  18. Summing up • We now have fewer tables, much larger data volumes and improved presentation & meta data • this conference is a welcome opportunity ….for us to get your feedback and your views on priorities for the future • Questions? Contacts Chris.Kershaw@homeoffice.gsi.gov.uk David.Matz@homeoffice.gsi.gov.uk MigrationStatsEnquiries@homeoffice.gsi.gov.uk

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