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Something about climate models

Something about climate models. Philip Mote JISAO/SMA Climate Impacts Group (home of Academy award winner Ed Miles). Outline. Very brief primer: Global climate change Climate models Socioeconomic scenarios Projections for the Northwest. Carbon dioxide: up 32%. Global average temperature.

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Something about climate models

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  1. Something about climate models Philip Mote JISAO/SMA Climate Impacts Group (home of Academy award winner Ed Miles)

  2. Outline • Very brief primer: Global climate change • Climate models • Socioeconomic scenarios • Projections for the Northwest

  3. Carbon dioxide: up 32%

  4. Global average temperature 0.8 0.4 degrees Celsius 0 -0.4 -0.8 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

  5. The earth is warming -- abruptly

  6. A whole bunch of climate models

  7. Fluid on a sphere - spherical basis functions

  8. 1 BMRC 2 CCC 3 CCSR 4 CSIRO 5 ECHAM3 6 ECHAM4 7 GFDL 8 HadCM2 9 IAP 10 MRI 11 CERFACS 12 PCM 13 GISS 14 HadCM3 15 LMD 16CSM

  9. Natural Climate Influence Human Climate Influence All Climate Influences

  10. Outline • Very brief primer: Global climate change • Climate models • Socioeconomic scenarios • Projections for the Northwest

  11. IPCC scenarios: radiative forcing (CO2 only) W/m2

  12. IPCC scenarios: radiative forcing (GHGs + aerosols) W/m2

  13. 21st century temperature change IPCC (www.ipcc.ch)

  14. Temperature change, 2071-2100 minus 1961-1990

  15. A range of climate change scenarios Estimated climate change from 20th c. to 2040s using 8 climate model scenarios.

  16. Conclusions • Climate models are useful for large-scale future climate changes, with proper caveats • Projections for the Northwest: 0.5°C/decade

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