Finding Customers and Forecasting Markets for New and Disruptive Technologies

1. Finding Customers and Forecasting Markets for New and Disruptive Technologies James F. Fee, Adhva Adhva.com Adhva

2. Basic Concepts • Where do products come from? • What do I mean by competition? • How groups of customers become markets • Finding parallel universes • Modeling markets that don’t exist • Disruptive vs. new products/markets Adhva

3. Where do products come from? • Knock-off – copy an existing product or service –sell at a lower price to existing customers • Incrementally improve an existing product – this is what engineers are hired to do • Develop a product to address your own need – how many of you are there? • Develop or utilize a new material, compound or service that has unique characteristics – find a market & develop a product Adhva

4. The World of your New Product New Product or Service (A) Existing Product or Service (B) Customers New Corp Competitors Customers Customers Money Money Adhva

5. Comparing A with B • A and B could be equivalent • Laptop Dell or HP • A and B are different but with same function • Transportation to work Car or Bicycle • A and B could be totally different • Entertainment Trip to Europe or Home Theater • However money is money • Competition is not for the product – it’s for the money Adhva

6. Key Takeaway • Your product and it’s benefits may be unique but there is always competition for the money • Please never say that there is no competition Adhva

7. The World of your New Product Product or Service A Product or Service B Customers New Corp Competitors Customers Customers Money Money Market Adhva

8. Customers and markets • Customers purchase products and services • Markets are collections of customers that have similar purchasing patterns • The same product may serve several very different markets Adhva

9. Markets are societies / cultures • Made up of companies and individuals • There are leaders, followers and experts • They have their own dress and jargon • Annual gathering rituals • Detroit Auto Show – NY Toy Fair • American Heart Association – CES @ Las Vegas • Distribution channels • Business practices (typical business models) • Trade associations Adhva

10. Simple example • As part of a project for a local company they wanted to know how big was the commercial market for their SNO PRO product • Main customers were new car dealerships Adhva

11. National Auto Dealers Association Adhva

12. Days supply of vehicles- 60 Average time to clean a vehicle* 5 to 6 / hr Average time to clean all of the vehicles* 3hr * My guess Modeling the market Adhva

13. What do we need to know • How many SNO PROs customers? • How many are in snow areas? • How many SNO PROs per customer? • How many cars are on the lot • How long does it take to clean a car • How quick are all of the cars cleaned Adhva

14. NOAA Snowfall Map Adhva

15. Most important stepTEST your Model • I went to several dealerships • Talked to sales people • Who cleans the cars – they do • How long does it take them to do it • Estimate cars on the lot -etc. • Refine the model • Random data points improve your model Adhva

16. Conclusion • Model was reasonably close to the actual sales data. • Current channels were reaching the available market Adhva

17. Find the best fit customer / market / product • A business idea is like a jigsaw puzzle • You don’t know what you have until you put all of the pieces together • Customers • Markets • Competition Adhva

18. Where do products come from? • Knock-off – copy an existing product or service –sell at a lower price to existing customers • Incrementally improve an existing product – this is what engineers are hired to do • Develop a product to address your own need – how many of you are there? • Develop or utilize a new material, compound or service that has unique characteristics – find a market & develop a product Adhva

19. Do Your Homework • Learn about your • Customer • Market • Competition • Google is important but you must talk to people • The hardest part is not to sell but to listen Adhva

20. Which comes first?The customer or the market • You need both • If you have customers talk to them • Ask them what related products do the buy? • From whom? • What publications, trade shows etc.? • If you don’t have customers then learn about the market • Create a customer profile Adhva

21. Creating a customer profile for your new product • Who needs it? • Why do they need it? • Who purchases it? • What does it take to close the sale? • Where do customers buy it? Adhva

22. Who needs it? • Everybody is not an answer • Bottoms up profile • You need to know your target customers better than your best friend. • Where do they live, how do they spend their money, what do they like and not like • Top down demographic info • X , Y generation • Dr., Lawyer, Banker – what kind of Dr. Adhva

23. What does it take to close the first sale? • A laptop, cell phone and internet connection • Or $1M for product development and a $100K to launch a commercial product • Or $10M for product development, $10M for inventory and $10M national media launch of a consumer product Adhva

24. Another Takeaway • Ideas are cheap and easy • The secret is to develop a mental screening process to quickly sort through ideas to find the good ones • The danger is that once you become emotionally involved in an idea, it is very hard to be rational Adhva

25. Disruptive vs. new markets Mainframe Computers $100Ks 60% margins Direct sales Mini Computers $10K - $20K 40% margins OEM PCs $1K-$5K 20% margins Retail LCD Displays $200-$1000 Computer Channel CRTs $100-$500 Computer Channel Adhva

26. Let’s talk about some of your ideas Adhva

27. Finding Customers and Forecasting Markets for New and Disruptive Technologies James F. Fee, Adhva Adhva.com Adhva