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Network theory 101

Temporal network structure of human contact patterns and its implication for disease dynamics and control Petter Holme, Umeå University with Luis EC Rocha, Sungmin Lee, Fredrik Liljeros. Network theory 101. Network theory 101. Network theory 101. Network theory 101. Temporal effects.

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Network theory 101

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  1. Temporal network structure of human contact patterns and its implication for disease dynamics and controlPetter Holme, Umeå Universitywith Luis EC Rocha, Sungmin Lee, Fredrik Liljeros

  2. Network theory 101

  3. Network theory 101

  4. Network theory 101

  5. Network theory 101

  6. Temporal effects

  7. Temporal effects

  8. What we are interested in • What kind of relevant temporal /topological structures are there? Why? • How does temporal structures in empirical networks affect disease spreading? • Can we exploit these structures to slow down disease spreading?

  9. Our datasets • E-mail: 3,188 nodes, 309,125 contacts over 83 days • Internet dating: 29,341 nodes, 536,276 contacts over 512 d • Hospital: 295,107 nodes, 64,625,283 contacts over 8,521 d • Prostitution: 16,730 nodes, 50,632 contacts over 2,232 d

  10. Worst case scenario vs. null-model

  11. Threshold in transmission probability

  12. Threshold in disease dynamics

  13. Two stage HIV model

  14. A society-wide context

  15. Half time summary • Temporal correlations speed up the outbreaks on a short time scale & slows it down on a longer time scale • Temporal effects create distinct and comparatively high epidemic thresholds • HIV can not spread in the prostitution data alone and probably does not serve as a reservoir of HIV in a society-wide perspective

  16. Temporal vaccination strategies Simulation setup

  17. Temporal vaccination strategies Simulation setup

  18. Temporal vaccination strategies Strategy “Recent”

  19. Temporal vaccination strategies Strategy “Weight”

  20. Relative efficiency, worst case

  21. Relative efficiency, SIR model

  22. Explanatory model

  23. Summary • Temporal correlations do affect disease spreading and can be exploited in targeted vaccination • The best vaccination strategy depends on the type of temporal structure • Until more structural information is available, we recommend the strategy Recent

  24. Thank You! March 28 – April 20 nordita.org/network2011 deadline March 10 http://www.tp.umu.se/~holme/

  25. SI model, vsρ = 1

  26. Parameter dependence, relative efficiency

  27. Outbreak diversity

  28. Contact sequence vs other types of models

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