Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Ready for the Second Review

1. Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Ready for the Second Review EC-LNV, 23 June 2004 Henk Simons - Milieu en Natuur Planbureau (MNP), RIVM Co-ordinator Responses Working Group

2. Outline Context Description and Status Conceptual Framework Structure and Preliminary results of the Global Working Groups Products Second round review

3. Millennium Ecosystem Assessment An international scientific assessment of the consequences of ecosystem changes for human well-being: • Modeled on the IPCC • Providing information requested by: • Conventions (CBD, CCD, Ramsar, CMS) • other partners including the private sector and civil society • With the goals of: • stimulating and guiding action to conserve ecosystems and enhance their contribution to human well-being • building capacity to undertake integrated ecosystem assessments and to act on their information

4. Human Challenge • Considerable progress has been made in fighting poverty • life expectancy increasing • infant mortality decreasing • agricultural production increasing, etc. • Major problems remain • 1.2 billion people live on less than $1 per day • 1 billion people do not have access to clean water • More than 2 billion people have no access to sanitation • 1.3 billion are breathing air below the standards considered acceptable by WHO • 700 million people suffer from indoor air pollution due to biomass burning Source: Serageldin, 2002, Science 296:54

5. Food Water Timber Wood fuel is the only source of fuel for one third of the world’s population. Wood demand will double in next 50 years. Food production must increase to meet the needs of an additional 3 billion people over the next 30 years • One-third of the world’s population is now subject to water scarcity. • Population facing water scarcity will double over the next 30 years Growing Demand For Ecosystem Services

6. Stakeholders: • Governments • Private Sector • Civil Society Assessment Monitoring Research What is a policy-relevant assessment? A social process to bring the findings of science to bear on the needs of decision-makers A scientific assessment applies the judgement of experts to existing knowledge to provide scientifically credible answers to policy relevant questions.

7. MA Design Draws On LessonsFrom Earlier Assessments Key success factor from past experiences Relevant MA design features 1 Political legitimacy • Authorized by the UN and 4 conventions: CBD, CCD, Ramsar, CMS – to provide a portion of their information/assessment needs • Multi-stakeholder governance structure: intergovernmental and non-governmental, including the private sector and civil society • Modeled on IPCC procedures and structure • Working groups and coordinating/lead authors • North-South, regional, disciplinary, gender balance • Independent review board, 2 rounds of expert and government review • Policy-relevant but not policy-prescriptive • Focus strongly shaped by audiences • Extensive analysis of user needs • Review of draft products against user needs • Focus on joint needs of multiple users 2 Scientific credibility 3 Utility

8. Sub-Global Assessment Working Group Condition Scenarios Response MA Organisation MA Board Review Board Chairs Assessment PanelWorking Group Chairs Support Functions Highly Distributed Secretariat Outreach & Engagement Chapter Review Editors Global Assessment Working Groups

9. Launch and design Core assessment work Review process 1st working group meetings 3rd working group meetings Begin review 2nd working group meetings Combined working group meeting 1st design meeting Board approval Review meetings 2nd design meeting Release of assessment and synthesis reports; Outreach Release of Conceptual Framework report UN Launch Timeline 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

10. Current status: 1st Round Review • 1st Report (MA Conceptual Framework) completed • 800 Authors, 85 countries • Review Board established • Chapters made available for review early January; reviewers had ten weeks to submit review comments • Reviews invited from approximately • 750 Expert Reviewers • 600 National Focal Points • Focal points for the CBD, CCD, Ramsar Convention, CMS, and UNFCCC in ~180 countries • 15 “Affiliated Scientific Organizations and National Academies of Sciences (ASOs) • 6900 Review comments received from approximately • 215 Expert reviewers • 35 National Focal Points • 4 ASOs • Draft chapters being revised and available in June 2004 for in-depth review

11. Ecosystem ServicesThe benefits people obtain from ecosystems Provisioning Goods produced or provided by ecosystems • food • fresh water • fuel wood • genetic resources Cultural Non-material benefits from ecosystems • spiritual • recreational • aesthetic • inspirational • educational Regulating Benefits obtained from regulation of ecosystem processes • climate regulation • disease regulation • flood regulation Supporting Services necessary for production of other ecosystem services • Soil formation • Nutrient cycling • Primary production

12. Security Freedoms and Choice Basic Material for Good Life Supporting Services Provisioning Services Health Regulating Services Good Social Relations Cultural Services Consequences of Ecosystem Change for Human Well-being Ecosystem Services Constituents of Well-being

13. Conceptual Framework

14. Sub-Global Assessment Working Group All of the above… at sub-global scales MA Working Groups Condition Working Group • What is the current condition and historical trends of ecosystems and their services? • What have been the consequences of changes in ecosystems for human well-being? Scenario Working Group • Given plausible changes in primary drivers, what will be the consequences for ecosystems, their services, and human well-being? Responses Working Group • What can we do to enhance well-being and conserve ecosystems?

16. Condition Working Group Introduction • Methods, Drivers of change, Biodiversity, HWB and Vulnerability Ecosystem Services • Analysed by major clusters of ecosystem services Ecosystems • Multiple services from various systems. Synthesis

17. Technical chapters examine current status and trends of ecosystem services across ecosystem types A) Provisioning Chapter 8. Freshwater Chapter 9. Food Chapter 10. Timber, Fiber, Fuel Chapter 11. Novel Products and Industries from Biodiversity B) Supporting and Regulating Chapter 12. Biodiversity regulation of ecosystem services Chapter 13. Nutrient cycling Chapter 14. Air quality and climate regulation Chapter 15. Human infectious disease agents Chapter 16. Waste processing and detoxification Chapter 17. Natural Hazard regulation C) Cultural Chapter 18. Cultural and amenity services

18. Then examine the status of different ecosystems in providing these ecosystem services Ch. 19 Cultivated Systems Ch. 20 Dryland systems Ch. 21 Forest systems Ch. 22 Urban systems Ch. 23 Inland Water systems Ch. 24 Coastal systems Ch. 25 Marine systems Ch. 26 Polar Systems Ch. 27 Mountain systems Ch. 28 Island systems

19. Example questions being answered by the Condition Working Group: • What have been the consequences of ecosystem degradation for human health? • What have been the economic costs and benefits of changes to ecosystems? • What have been the trends in the supply of services from ecosystems? • How will current trends play out in the near future? • How has the capacity of ecosystems to provide services changed in the recent past • What are the trends in the capacities of ecosystems to continue to provide services.

20. A selection of DRAFT findings from the Condition Working Group: Ecosystems and Human well-being • Although on average human well-being has improved in the recent past, human populations are growing faster in ecosystems characterised by low well-being and low productivity, and there is a growing number of people at high risk of adverse ecosystem changes. • The world is experiencing a worsening trend of human suffering and economic losses from natural disasters. The capacity of ecosystems to regulate such natural disasters has diminished. • Flood damage in Europe in 2002 was higher than in any previous year. • The impacts of declining ecosystem services are often shifted from the groups responsible for the decline onto others.

21. A selection of DRAFT findings from the Condition Working Group: Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services • The loss of biodiversity has lead to measurable reductions in aspects of human well-being. • The composition of communities of species, rather than numbers of species is most important in determining the capacity of the system to provide ecosystem services. • The integrity of interactions between species is critical for the preservation of long-term human food production on land and in the sea (e.g. pollination and pathogen control). • Among plants and vertebrates, the great majority of species are declining in distribution, population size, or both. We are not likely to meet the CBD 2010 target. • Overfishing is the dominant factor reducing marine biodiversity. • Most terrestrial extinctions are predicted to occur in tropical forests.

22. A selection of DRAFT findings from the Condition Working Group: Ecosystem services • There is a slower rate of growth of water use, although global per capita water availability is falling. Water withdrawal is currently about 10% of global continental runoff. • The growth of world cereal production has slowed recently, and the supply of fish as a cheap source of protein for developing countries has declined. There is an accelerating demand for livestock products. • Global consumption of fuelwood peaked in the 1990s, and is now declining, due to the availability of alternative fuel sources. • Terrestrial ecosystems were a sink for a third of historical CO2 emissions and a fifth of 1990s emissions. The sink was partially due to afforestation/reforestation in Europe and other regions.

23. A selection of DRAFT findings from the Condition Working Group: Ecosystems • Societies in coastal systems are increasingly impacted by fisheries failures in coastal and marine systems, exacerbated by pollution and development. • Islands are all coast, and are especially vulnerable • Climate change is having a real impact on polar systems • But there is a high coping capacity in Polar countries, and so the vulnerability of Polar societies is low. • The capacity of wetlands to deliver services is deteriorating around the world, and is worse than any other system type. • In Europe, the negative impacts of urban settlements on ecosystem services and human well-being has become more delayed and dispersed.

24. Main areas of forest degradation, 1980-2000

25. Population density and most populated and changing cities in 1990-2000

26. Main areas of change in cropland extent

27. Scenario Name Dominant Approach for Sustainability Order from Strength Reserves, parks, national-level policies Global Orchestration Economic growth, public goods Adapting Mosaic Local-regional governance, common-property institutions TechnoGarden Green technology Scenario Working Group What are the consequences for ecosystem services and human well-being of alternative worlds in which different approaches to sustainability are emphasized? Scenarios W.G. 29 Apr 04

28. Approach to quantifying the MA scenarios Storylines Global Orchestration, Techno-garden, etc. Model Outputs Provisioning Services - Food (meat, fish, grain production) - Fiber (timber) - Freshwater (renewable water resources & withdrawals) - Fuel wood (biofuels) Regulating - Climate regulation (C flux) - Air quality (NOx, S emissions) Supporting primary production Links to human wellbeing AIM Global change WaterGAP World water resources IMAGE 2 Global change Model Inputs Demographic Economic Bio-physical Technological IMPACT World food production

29. Chapters of Scenarios Assessment Report Summary for Decision Makers (SDM) Chapter 1: Summary of MA Conceptual Framework Chapter 2: Global scenarios in Historic Perspective Chapter 3: Why is it important to include Ecology in Global Scenarios Chapter 4: State of the Art in Describing Future Changes in Ecosystems Chapter 5: Scenarios for Ecosystem Services: Rationale and Overview Chapter 6: Methodology for Developing the MA Scenarios Chapter 7: Drivers of Change in Ecosystem Conditions and Services Chapter 8: Four Scenarios Chapter 9: Changes in Ecosystem Services and their Drivers Chapter 10: Biodiversity Across Scenarios Chapter 11: Human Wellbeing Across Scenarios Chapter 12: Synergies and Trade-offs among Ecosystem Services Chapter 13: Synthesis: Lessons Learned Chapter 14: Synthesis: Policy Implications

30. Scenarios: Answers to Frequently-Asked Questions The probability is small of any one scenario is the real future The future will be a mix of approaches and consequences described in the scenarios, plus events and innovations that have not been imagined at the time of writing. None of the scenarios is “business as usual”, though all scenarios have elements of the world as it exists today. None of the scenarios is a “best” path or “worst” path. Significantly better or worse outcomes could be developed using different mixes of the policies and practices addressed in the scenarios. The scenarios are a menu of choices and their conse-quences. Readers may use this menu to consider their priorities, preferences and choices.

31. Scenarios: Selected Draft Headlines Demand for provisioning services (food, fiber, water, etc.) increases in all scenarios. This increases stress on the ecosystems that provide these services. By 2050, 10% to 20% of current grassland and forest land will be lost, mostly due to expansion of agriculture. By 2050, water stress increases in arid regions of Africa and Asia. The number of people living in water-stressed areas increases 200% to 300%. Globally, the volume of polluted fresh water increases. Water availability declines, mostly due to changes in climate and water withdrawal. Ecosystems currently sequester CO2, but the future of this service is in doubt. The CO2 sink decreases in the Order from Strength scenario

32. Scenarios: Selected Draft Headlines Diversity (vascular plants) declines in all scenarios (most in Order from Strength, least in TechnoGarden and Adapting Mosaic). Greatest losses in warm mixed forest, savanna, scrub, tropical forest & woodland. Fish populations are lost due to declining water availability. Differences among scenarios are minor. Most losses of fishes occur in poor tropical and subtropical countries. Our ability to reduce the rate of loss of species’ populations by 2010 is in doubt. Two scenarios (Order from Strength and Global Orchestration) fail to meet the target. The other two may, at best, barely meet the target.

33. Responses Working Group Part I: Conceptual Framework for Evaluating Responses • Typology of reponses (legal, institutional, economic, technical, ecological) • Methodologies to assess responses • Uncertainties in the effectiveness of responses Part II: Assessment of Past and Current Responses • Biodiversity • Food, fiber, fresh water, fuel • Nutrients, waste, climate • Cultural services • Integrated responses Part III: Synthesis: Ingredients for successful responses • Poverty reduction • Health • Choosing responses • Millennium Development Goals

34. Responses WG: definition Responses are defined as the whole range of human actions, including policies, strategies, and interventions to address specific issues, needs, opportunities or problems

35. Chapters of Responses Assessment Report Summary for Decision Makers (SDM) Chapter 1: Summary of MA Conceptual Framework Chapter 2: Typology of Responses Chapter 3: Assessing Responses Chapter 4: Recognizing Uncertainties in Evaluating Responses Chapter5: Biodiversity Chapter 6: Food and cultivated systems Chapter 7: Water Chapter 8: Wood, Fuel wood and Non Wood Forest Products Chapter 9: Nutrient Management Chapter 10: Waste Management, Processing and Detoxification Chapter 11: Flood and Storm Control Chapter 12: Ecosystems and Vector Borne Disease Control Chapter 13: Responses to Climate Change Chapter 14: Cultural Services Chapter 15: Integrated Responses Chapter 16: Consequences and Options for Human Health Chapter 17: Consequences of Responses for poverty reduction, Ecosystem services and human wellbeing Chapter 18: Choosing Responses Chapter 19 Implications for achieving the MDGs

36. Some Preliminary Messages • Water: Significant opportunities to avoid future water crises exist in areas of improved design and management of water infrastructure, more inclusive and integrated governance and more efficient resource allocation through market based approaches • Forests: Strategies to improve the impact of forest product use on ecosystem health and human well being are more affected by decisions taken outside the forest sector than those within it. • People and Ecosystems: Policies and Economic Incentives concerning management systems and conservation strategies that separate people from their environment, freezing both cultures and ecosystems have limited success…… • Key challenges in the development of effective response strategies arises out of limited knowledge on the complexity and variability of site-specific factors, which determine outcomes and costs

37. A further insight Integrated responses (IR) are gaining in importance in both developing and developed countries but they have had mixed results. IR are responses that address degradation of ecosystem services across a number of systems simultaneously, or that also explicitly include objectives to enhance human well-being. IR occur at different scales and across scales, and use a range of instruments for implementation. Increasingly they are associated with the application of multi-stakeholder processes and with decentralization, and they may include actors and institutions from government, civil society and private sector. Examples include some multi-lateral environmental agreements, environmental policy integration within national governments, and multi-sectoral approaches such as Integrated Coastal Zone Management. Although many IR make ambitious claims about their likely benefits, in practice the results of implementation have been mixed in terms of ecological, social and economic impacts.

38. Assessment Outputs: Global 2003 • Ecosystems and Human Well-being: A Framework for Assessment • MA Data Catalog • Datasets being used in the MA 2004 • Edited volume of conference paper: Bridging Scales and Epistemologies in Multi-scale Assessments 2005 • Technical Assessment Reports (300-800 pages ea.) and Summaries for Decision-makers (SDMs) • Sub-global Assessment • Condition/Trends Assessment • Scenario Assessment • Response Options Assessment • Summary Volume (SDMs of 4 reports)

39. Assessment Outputs: Global 2005 (cont) • Synthesis Reports (30-50 page) • Overarching Synthesis • Biodiversity (CBD) • Desertification (CCD) • Wetlands (Ramsar) • Private Sector • Health and Ecosystems (tentative) • Food and Cultivated Systems (tentative) • Board Summary of Key Messages (10 p.) • Other Products • Reports available over internet (multiple language for summary docs) • Interactive web-based MA indicator exploration capability • Partnerships for expanded outreach: radio, theatre, documentaries, film (tentative) • Partnerships for capacity-building/training outreach (tentative)

40. Major (expected) achievements of MA • Sound baseline information on ecosystems, human well-being and their linkages • New concepts, approaches, methodology • Networking among scientists and institutions • Support to Integrated Ecosystem Assessments at various levels (local to regional/global) • Ultimately and most importantly, support to policy development and implementation by various audiences (Conventions, National and local Governments, Private sector)

41. MA Review Process Jan 8 Mar 19 June August First round of Government and Expert Review Second round of Government and Expert Review Release of Findings 2004 2005

42. Comments from 1st review (1) • Important dimensions that need strenthening • Link to human wellbeing and poverty reduction • Valuation, including non-economic valuation • Generally, not enough on the economic side • Gender analysis largely missing • Trends and indicators not evident • Distinction between trends and thresholds (important for decision making) • Thresholds and inertia

43. Comments from 1st review (2) • Stronger reference to user needs • From review to policy relevant assessment • Style of writing/length of some chapters • Too theoretical, presentation, weigh and balance • Longwinded, difficult to extract main points • More clearly need to facilitate the executive summaries • Tone: prescriptive, defeatist, advocacy

44. Rerview page on MA Internet: http://www.millenniumassessment.org/en/products.chapters.aspx

45. Government review organised through CBD National Focal PointsFor Netherlands: Annemarie van der HeijdenDirectoraat voor Europese SamenwerkingDGESemail:annemarie-vander.heijden@minbuza.nlDetails on review process by Netherlands Government will follow