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Decision XXV/5

Decision XXV/5. Final TEAP XXV/5 Task Force report Presentation to MOP-26 Paris, 17 November 2014. Decision XXV/5.

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Decision XXV/5

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  1. Decision XXV/5 Final TEAP XXV/5 Task Force report Presentation to MOP-26 Paris, 17 November 2014

  2. Decision XXV/5 • To request the TEAP to prepare a report for consideration by the Open-ended Working Group at its thirty-fourth meeting and an updated report to be submitted to the Twenty-Sixth Meeting of the Parties that would: • (a) Update information on alternatives to ozone-depleting substances in various sectors and subsectors and differentiating between Article 5 and non-Article 5 parties, considering regional differences, and assessing whether they are; 2

  3. Comparison between XXIV/7 & XXV/5 3

  4. Dec XXV/5 – Decision elements 1(b) & 1(c) ‘Estimate current and future demand for ODS alternatives’ • Taking into account such issues as: • Increased demand (particularly in RAC) • Specific attention to growth in Article 5 Parties ‘Assess the economic costs, implications & environmental benefits of various scenarios of avoiding high GWP alternatives’ • Taking into account: • The items listed under Clause 1(a) • Differentiation between Article 5 and non-Article 5 Parties

  5. Decision XXV/5 Task Force • The TEAP established a XXV/5 Task Force (RTF) to prepare this report to respond to Decision XXV/5. The composition of the Task Force is as follows: • Co-chairs • Paul Ashford (UK, co-chair FTOC) • Lambert Kuijpers (The Netherlands, co-chair TEAP & RTOC); • Roberto Peixoto (Brazil, co-chair RTOC) • Members • Many members from FTOC and RTOC • Individual TOC co-chairs from CTOC, HTOC and MTOC 5

  6. Changes between Draft & Final Reports Inclusion of an unconstrained Business-as-Usual (BAU) baseline to differentiate from scenarios incorporating actual and projected regulation Refrigeration & Air Conditioning Summary Graphs updated to provide information by sector as well as by refrigerant in the BAU and Mitigation Scenarios Improved explanation of the servicing and growth assumptions Foam Data enhanced to provide tabulated numerical information as well as graphical presentations for comparison purposes New Annex introduced to collate information on High Ambient Temperature operation of RAC equipment Additional quantitative information, where possible, for sectors other than RAC and foams 6

  7. Foam – alternatives to ODS and HFCs HFO-1233zd(E) now likely to be offered by more than one supplier 7

  8. Foam BA Consumption – BAU Scenario by Region 8

  9. Foam Blowing Agents – BAU Scenario:A5 Parties • XPS particularly significant due to later transition & high GWP alternatives 9

  10. Refrigeration/AC - alternatives • Air Conditioning • Heat Pumps • Chillers • Mobile Air Conditioning • Alternatives listed (with comments to technology, commercialisation, energy efficiency, costs, barriers and restrictions) • 6 low GWP pure fluids (R-717, R-744, HCs, HCFC (HCFOs), HFC(HFOs), (GWP<300) • 14 low GWP HFC(HFO) based blends plus HFC-32 • 3 HFC based blends (GWP>1000) • Sub-sectors covered are: • Domestic Refrigeration • Commercial Refrigeration • Transport Refrigeration • Large-scale Refrigeration 10

  11. RAC – alternatives to ODS and HFCs

  12. The "High Ambient Temperature” Challenge • HFC-134a (GWP 1300) is presently used as an HCFC alternative • HC-290 (propane) and HC-1270 (propene) perform well at high temperature ambient conditions but are flammable • HFC-32 (GWP 677) is probably suitable for application in small and medium systems • In principle, the low-GWP mixtures R-444B, R-446A, R-447A, DR-5 and ARM-71 that include HFOs are suitable, but costs are unresolved • R-717 chillers can and are used, although the very high discharge temperatures need to be accommodated for inter-stage and oil cooling • HCFC-1233zd(E) is considered as an alternative in low pressure centrifugal chillers, both at moderate and high ambient temperatures • CO2 is less suitable because of its low critical temperature and solutions will need to be engineered

  13. RAC – BAU scenario • Based upon a bottom-up model for demand, banks and emissions • Timeframe chosen 2015-2030, because 2025 would not show enough changes in various scenarios • No measures or bans on HFCs are considered beyond 2010 • Economic growth by using recent growth parameters and extrapolating them into the future • Looking at all RAC subsectors • Results of the demand for the period 2015-30 in tonnes of certain refrigerants or blends as well as in tonnes CO2-eq (including low GWP in the BAU approach)

  14. Refrigeration/AC - BAU Non-A5 14

  15. Refrigeration/AC - BAU A5 15

  16. Refrigeration/AC demand largest Foams 16

  17. RAC – MIT- scenarios Purpose is to show the importance of MAC and commercial refrigeration first Introduction years (of the “ban”) in Non- Article 5 and Article 5 are different for these sectors Secondly, in the MIT-2 scenario, the importance of the use of HFCs and the conversion to low GWP in stationary AC is the big issue 17

  18. RAC – BAU-MIT- scenarios A5 18

  19. RAC – Costs MIT-2 scenario A5 Costs for conversion of the Article 5 MIT-2 scenario 19

  20. RAC – BAU-MIT- scenarios NA5 20

  21. RAC – Costs MIT-2 scenario n-A5 Costs for conversion of the Non-Article 5 MIT-2 scenario 21

  22. Foams – MIT-1 scenario Non Article 5 countries Linear 5 year phase-out approach across all sectors Re-cast EU regulation (all foam types by 2023) Other Countries (all foam types by 2030) Article 5 countries All PU transitions out of HCFCs complete by 2020 All XPS transitions out of HCFCs complete by 2026 PU Spray and XPS adopt 25% high GWP solutions Other foam sectors adopt 5% high GWP solutions 22

  23. Foams – MIT-2 scenario Non Article 5 countries Linear 5 year phase-out approach across all sectors Enhanced EU regulation (all foam types by 2020) Other Countries (all foam types by 2025) Article 5 countries All PU transitions out of HCFCs complete by 2018 All XPS transitions out of HCFCs complete by 2024 All foam sectors adopt 0% high GWP solutions 23

  24. Foams - BAU-MIT for NA5 24

  25. Foams BAU-MIT for A5 25

  26. Cost & Funding Factors in the Foam Sector • Foam transitions are generally more cost effective than RAC transitions • A challenge for the foam sector is the large number of Small Medium Enterprises in both non-Article 5 and Article 5 parties • Lack of economies of scale make it difficult to transition to flammable low-GWP solutions, but the cost of HFOs might limit options further • Under current parameters, any funding support for transitions under the MLF (A5 parties only) is unlikely to fully meet the costs, and the enterprise will often need to co-fund. • In other sectors (e.g. XPS), multi-national companies will often be making the funding decisions • Except for the EU, there are no finalised regulatory drivers in non-A5 parties which encourage early transition out of HFCs unless process upgrades and related investment offers a technology ‘break point’. 26

  27. Cumulative climate impact : BAU-MIT-1 27 ~ 3,800 Mtonnes CO2-eq saved by 2030

  28. Cumulative climate impact : BAU-MIT-2 28 ~ 12,000 Mtonnes CO2-eq saved by 2030

  29. Medical uses • Metered dose inhalers use HFC-134a and HFC-227ea. Cumulative HFC emissions between 2014-2025 are estimated to have a climate impact of 173,000 ktonnes CO2 equivalent under a business-as-usual scenario. • Completely avoiding HFC MDI alternatives in this sector is not yet technically or economically feasible because, currently: • There are economic impediments in switching from HFC MDIs to multi-dose DPIs, especially for salbutamol; • 10-20% of patients cannot avoid using HFC MDIs with available options. • In the sterilants sector, where there is almost non-existent use of HFCs and a wide variety of alternatives available, the impact of avoiding HFCs would be minimal. 29

  30. Status of halon alternatives for Civil Aviation Aircraft M o n t r e a l P r o t o c o l M O P - 2 6 m e e t i n g, 1 7 – 2 1 N o v e m b e r 2 0 1 4, P a r i s 30 • Lavatory trash receptacle extinguishing (lavex) systems • Vast majority of new production aircraft are installed with HFC-227ea or HFC-236fa • Some airlines are also replacing existing halon 1301 lavex systems during routine maintenance • Civil Aviation’s smallest use of halon • Civil aviation has not approved alternatives in any other applications, even though some agents have passed required Minimum Performance Standards testing

  31. Status of alternatives for Civil Aviation Aircraft 31 M o n t r e a l P r o t o c o l M O P - 2 6 m e e t i n g, 1 7 – 2 1 N o v e m b e r 2 0 1 4, P a r i s • For all other applications, HFCs and HCFC Blend B (handhelds) are commercially available, but equipment has increased space and weight, and Civil aviation expresses environmental concerns. As a result, Civil aviation is not pursuing certification of these agents • For handhelds, a “low GWP” unsaturated HBFC known as 2‑BTP has less space and weight impact compared to other alternatives. If given regulatory approval, it could be used to meet the ICAO phase-out date of December 31, 2016 for in production aircraft • For engine APUs, HFC-125 has been used successfully in engine/APU fire protection on US military aircraft since the early 1990s, and is currently being developed for use on a military derivative of a large commercial aircraft (Boeing 767; military derivative KC-46)

  32. HFC-227ea and -236fa Estimated Installed Base • Two different reports identified for HFC-227ea and one for -236fa • Owing to other uses, there are a lot of uncertainties associated with the various estimates, and ultimately the final estimate, of the size of the fire protection installed base of these HFCs. The final estimates should be considered order-of-magnitude estimates only • Assuming a 3% average emission rate from fixed fire protection applications, where HFC-227ea is used, its installed base from the period 2006-2010 is in the range 30,000-50,000 MT • Even more uncertainly exists for HFC-236fa. Assuming a 4 % emission rate for handheld extinguishers, the fire protection installed base in 2010 would be 300 – 500 MT if 10% of total emissions, to 3000-4000 MT if 90%. This is one to two orders of magnitude less than the order of magnitude estimate of the HFC-227ea fire protection installed base M o n t r e a l P r o t o c o l M O P - 2 6 m e e t i n g, 1 7 – 2 1 N o v e m b e r 2 0 1 4, P a r i s

  33. Solvents – Status in non-A5 and A5 Parties non-Article 5 Parties • HCFCs market is very small and will be phased out in 2015. • Unsaturated substances such as HFOs and HCFOs are also becoming available for solvent use to replace HCFCs, HFCs as well as HFEs. • It’s difficult to collect HCFC data for solvent use precisely as HCFC-141b is used mainly as a blowing agent. • Chlorinated solvents seem to be the main option to replace HCFCs in a variety of cleaning applications due to their strong solvency and cost effectiveness. Exposures should be strictly controlled owing to their toxicity • n-PB is an effective and useful solvent but widespread growth in its use would seem difficult to justify because of toxicity concerns. Article 5 Parties 33

  34. Summary of Findings from XXV/5 Final Report • Information about the available alternatives continues to evolve and the capabilities and limits of technologies are being further characterised • BAU scenarios have been defined for both A5 and non-A5 parties to 2030 • Refrigeration and Air Conditioning is the dominant sector in terms of BAU consumption • It has been possible to identify plausible measures that support two mitigation scenarios beyond the current BAU assumptions • MIT-1 could cumulatively deliver 3,800 Mtonnes CO2-eq saving by 2030 with MIT-2 delivering 12,000 MtonnesCO2-eq in the same time period • This assessment been refined between meetings but technologies continue to mature and cost information is still emerging 34

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