INFM 718A / LBSC 705 Information For Decision Making

1. INFM 718A / LBSC 705 Information For Decision Making Lecture 13

2. Selective Perception

3. One Perspective • “We do not first see, then define, we define first and then see.” Walter Lippmann (quoted in Plous, 1993.)

4. Selective Perception • Perception is affected by expectations. • Bruner and Postman’s (1949) experiments. • What did they find?

5. Normal Cards vs. Trick Cards • Trick cards had wrong (inverse) colors, such as a black three of hearts. (Check the cover of the Plous book.) • Bruner and Postman found that it took people about four times longer to recognize the trick cards than normal cards.

6. Four Strategies to Cope • Dominance • Compromise • Disruption • Recognition

7. Dominance • These people saw a red three of hearts or a black three of spades. • In the first case form is dominant and color is fit to expectation; in the second case vice versa. • Bruner and Postman called this “Perceptual Denial.”

8. Compromise • These people reported a red six of spades as a purple six of spades (or of hearts). • A black four of hearts was reported as a greyish four of spades. A red six of clubs was reported as “six of clubs illuminated by red light.” • 50% showed compromise behavior to red trick cards; 11% to black trick cards.

9. Disruption • Some people had trouble forming any perception at all. • Disruption was rare but quite dramatic.

10. Recognition • Some people recognized that there was a problem. • Even then, some failed to correctly identify what was wrong.

11. Expectations… • … can strongly influence perceptions. • We probably knew that already. However, we saw that empirical evidence supports the hypothesis. • Can more experience with the subject topic strengthen the influence of expectation on perception?

12. How many ‘f’s in this phrase? • These functional fuses have been developed after years of scientific investigation of electric phenomena, combined with the fruit of long experience in the part of the two investigators who have come forward with them for our meetings today.

13. Experience  Expectations  Perception • The second example: estimating the number of ‘f’s in a phrase. • Non-native speakers of English perform better. (Do they?) • The initial “Why?” is not completely answered.

14. Potent Expectations • Experiment by Wilson and Abrams (1977) • Heart rate was affected by whether the subject believed he was given alcohol more than whether he was actually given alcohol. • Expectations turned out to be more important than changes in blood chemistry!

15. A more sophisticated experiment… • … by McMillen, Smith and Wells-Parker (1989) • “High sensation seekers” who believed they had consumed alcohol drove more recklessly than those who believed they had not. • “Low sensation seekers” who believed they had consumed alcohol drove more cautiously than those who believed they had not.

16. Dartmouth vs. Princeton (1951) • Hastorf and Cantril (1954) concluded that “It is inaccurate and misleading to say that different people have different ‘attitudes’ concerning the same ‘thing.’ For the ‘thing’ simply is not the same for different people…”1 1) Hastorf, A.H., Cantril, H., 1954, “They saw a game: A case study,” The Journal of Abnormal and Social Psychology, 49, 129-134.

17. Hostile Media Effect • Vallone, Ross and Lepper (1985) studied the 1980 U.S. presidential elections. • Approximately 1/3 of the 160 subjects (registered voters) felt that the media had been biased. In ~90% of these cases, respondents felt the bias was against the candidate they supported.2 2) Vallone, R.P., Ross, L., Lepper, M.R., 1985, “The hostile media phenomenon: Biased perception and perceptions of media bias in coverage of the Beirut massacre,” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 49, 577-585.

18. Some Conclusions • Perceptions are selective by nature. • Perception depends on cognitive and motivational factors. • Decision makers should question their own motivations and expectations while making judgments and decisions.

19. Cognitive Dissonance

20. Cognitive Dissonance • Festinger and Carlsmith’s (1959) experiment. (Tedious tasks.)

21. I would lie… • … for twenty dollars or for free, but not for one dollar! • So, I make myself believe that the tasks were indeed enjoyable if I am paid only $1. • Cognitive dissonance says that people try to reduce or avoid psychological inconsistencies.

22. Self-Perception Theory • Festinger regarded cognitive dissonance as a negative motivation factor, one that should be avoided. • Bem disagreed and argued that people build their beliefs from observing themselves behave.

23. Self-Perception Theory • Argues that people build their beliefs and attitudes based on how they behave under various situations. • People tend to do that more when their internal cues about the situation are weak. (i.e. they do not have preconceived attitudes about the situation.)

24. So what happened… • … in Festinger and Carlsmith’s experiment? • $1 case subjects looked at their own behaviors and concluded that they should have enjoyed the tasks, … since they would not lie for $1. • $20 case subjects concluded that they bent the truth a little for the money involved.

25. The Difference • Cognitive Dissonance Theory attributes the findings to a motivation to reduce inner conflict. • Self-Perception Theory explains the findings in terms of how people infer the causes of their behaviors.

26. Two Main Types of Dissonance • Pre-Decisional Dissonance • Sherman and Gorkin’s (1980) experiment. • Kantola, Syme, and Campbell’s (1984) study. • Doob et al.’s (1969) experiment. (Mouthwash.) • Post-Decisional Dissonance • Knox and Inkster’s (1968) survey. (Horse bets.) • Frenkel and Doob’s survey (1976) (Elections.)

27. Conclusions • Marketing: Explicitly label introductory offers. • Politics – Social Activism: Solicit small contributions to campaigns and social causes. • Aronson’s (1972) statements. • Changes in attitude can follow changes in behavior.

28. Memory and Hindsight Biases

29. Is Memory Reconstructive? • Myers’ (1990) example. • “Close your eyes and recall a scene in which you experienced something pleasurable.”

30. Is Memory Reconstructive? • Loftus and Palmer’s (1974) experiments. • “How fast were the cars going?” • “Did you see any broken glass?” • …when the cars smashed, bumped, etc?

31. Are Memories Stored Separately? • Bransford and Franks (1971) (Ants) • There is an element of “memory construction” when remembering.

32. Hindsight Bias • “I-knew-it-all-along” effect • Elections, medical decisions, buying decisions, games, etc. • Do you have your own examples?

33. How to Reduce Hindsight Bias • Consider reasons why results might have turned out differently. • Slovic and Fischhoff’s (1977) study.

34. Plasticity

35. Plasticity • “Plasticity … refers to a discrepancy in how people answer two versions of the same question.”1 1) Plous, Scott, 1993, The Psychology of Judgment and Decision Making, pp.58, McGraw-Hill, New York, NY.

36. Example • Alternative A: Losing $50 with p=1.00. • Alternative B: Losing $200 with p=0.25 and losing nothing with p=0.75. • EV(Alternative A) = EV(Alternative B) • About 80% choose Alternative B.

37. However • When put in an insurance premium context, about 65% choose Alternative A. • Possible reasons: • Insurance premium context emphasizes the potential loss ($200), thus making it look big. • Buying insurance is considered a prudent behavior socially. • …?

38. Order Effects • The order of consecutive questions, or the order of response alternatives to questions may affect the responses by individuals. • Question order effects • Response alternative order effects

39. Question Order Effects From Schumann and Presser (1981) About half of the respondents were asked the two questions in the order below: • 1) Do you think a Communist country like Russia should let American newspaper reporters come in and send back to America the news as they see it? • 2) Do you think the United States should let Communist newspaper reporters from other countries come in and send back to their papers the news as they see it?

40. Question Order Effects The other half of the respondents were asked the two questions in the reverse order as given below: • 1) Do you think the United States should let Communist newspaper reporters from other countries come in and send back to their papers the news as they see it? • 2) Do you think a Communist country like Russia should let American newspaper reporters come in and send back to America the news as they see it?

41. Results Yes • Case 1: • Q1 82% • Q2 75% • Case 2: • Q1 55% • Q2 64%

42. Response Alternative Order Effects • These effects are slighter than the question order effects. • A common response order effect is a type of recency effect, where respondents tend to choose the last response alternative.

43. Example From Schumann and Presser (1981) • Version 1: Should divorce in this country be easier to obtain, more difficult to obtain, or stay as it is now? • Respond percentages: 23%, 36%, and 41% • Version 2: Should divorce in this country be easier to obtain, stay as it is now, or more difficult to obtain? • Respond percentages: 26%, 29%, and 46% In both cases, the most popular alternative was the last one.

44. What Can be Done? • What can be done to overcome order effects, (considering that we have to put the questions and the responses in one order or another)?

45. Pseudo-Opinions • Some respondents tend to offer opinions even on issues about which they know very little. • Such respondents tend to shape their “pseudo-opinions” (since they do not have “real opinions”) according to how the question is asked.

46. Example From Hartley (1946) • How Close Do You Fell to These Nationalities? • Danireans • Pireneans • Wallonians • More than 80% of the respondents rated these “nationalities” even though they do not exist!

47. Example From Gill (Tide Magazine, 1947) • What is your opinion of the Metallic Metals Act? • Good move for U.S. • Should be left to individual states • O.K. for foreign states, but should not be required in U.S. • Of no value at all. • 70% of the respondents gave an opinion although there is no Metallic Metals Act!

48. Pseudo-Op.s In Political Affairs • Pseudo-opinions can become important factors in political affairs. • In general, about 30% of respondents offer pseudo-opinions. • 30% can change the result of almost any major election and referendum. • Pseudo-opinions are particularly common in issues concerning foreign and military policy.

49. Filtering Pseudo-Opinions • Offering response alternatives such as “No opinion” or “I don’t know” can help filter out pseudo-opinions. • However, there may be a trap here. People may try to look like they know about the issue for social reasons, even if they do not. • “Choose not to offer opinion at this time” may be a better alternative. Saves face.

50. Inconsistency • “Inconsistency refers to a discrepancy between two related attitudes (attitude-attitude inconsistency) or between an attitude and a corresponding behavior (attitude-behavior inconsistency).”1 1) Plous, Scott, 1993, The Psychology of Judgment and Decision Making, pp.58, McGraw-Hill, New York, NY.