Role and Implications of Modeling and Simulation for Emergency Preparedness

1. Role and Implications of Modeling and Simulation for Emergency Preparedness Charles McLean DHS MS&A Support Project Manufacturing Systems Integration Division National Institute of Standards and Technology Gaithersburg, MD

2. Topics • MS&A problem statement • Establishing order in the DHS MS&A world • Need for standards • A proposed MS&A taxonomy • An example classification: nuclear plume simulation • Simulation reference architecture overview • Concept demonstration – Dirty bomb attack scenario • Needs analysis document structure and examples • Conclusions

3. An Example: Hurricane Katrina – New Orleans 2005

4. MSA Problem Statement • Modeling, simulation, and analysis system development is largely ad hoc with little or no coordination between sponsoring government agencies, the research community, software vendors, simulation users, and other interested parties. • A very large number of Federal, state and local agencies are responsible for aspects of homeland security and emergency response operations. • Each organization may have different needs, as well as a different understanding and appreciation for the use of MSA techniques. • No common framework and definition of associated terminology exists to identify all the potential applications for MSA techniques. • Little possibility for the re-use of existing software modules and data sets, or interoperability between products developed by different organizations. • Difficult to determine what applications might be currently available to meet a particular training need or support a specific system-engineering project.

5. Emergency Response Workshops at NIST March 2003: M&S for Emergency Response • Open invitation, attracted 160 attendees • Focused on identifying technical capabilities • Recommended actions included: • Standards development • Integration framework development • Input from user community • Development of a roadmap • Over 100,000 downloads of workshop report • March 2004: A Roadmap for M&S of Emergency Response • Working group of 30+ invited attendees • Focused on developing a coordinated roadmap plan that: • Rapidly brings integrated M&S capability to emergency responders • Allows collaboration among multiple organizations • Avoids duplication of effort • More details at: www.nist.gov/simresponse

6. Training Needs and Opportunities • First responders and incident management personnel need better training resources to prepare for future disasters • Live training exercises while valuable are often very expensive to organize and conduct • Frontline first responders may experience many training cycles in a typical exercise, managers and higher level support staff tend to have far fewer significant cycles • Training using modeling, simulation, and gaming technologies could be provided to: • Prepare for a more diverse range of scenarios than possible through live exercises • Support individual, team, or multi-organizational training needs • Allow more flexible scheduling of training times • Reduce overall long term cost to the Federal government • Utilize commercially- developed and marketed systems offered by competing software vendors

7. A Vision for the Future Integrated modeling, simulation, and gaming technology could be used to support education and training, research and development, system and process improvement, and planning for the emergency response community including: • public safety organizations • medical emergency response, hospitals and related facilities • Federal, state, and local government agencies • public transportation networks and systems • voluntary relief agencies • National Guard • logistic support systems The development, testing, and deployment of interoperable systems through the identification and/or creation of an appropriate suite of interface standards is the key to achieving this vision.

8. Problems We Face Today • Existing training applications are often not extensible to support real scenarios, locations, or enhanced capabilities • Current development efforts are typically carried out by independent organizations using custom or proprietary interfaces • Most development efforts start from scratch using general purpose game engines or software development kits • Large efforts are usually required for integration with other simulations, training games and data sources • Many standards exist, more are needed • Reference libraries and test case data sets do not exist

9. What solutions are needed? • Modeling, simulation, and gaming tools that can be rapidly configured to support various training scenarios in different regions of the country, i.e., data driven simulations • Interoperable tools to allow rapid integration • A suite of recommended data interface standards for use by software developers • Validated scenarios, tools, and data sets for a wide variety of incidents available in standard formats • A communication and computing infrastructure that is flexible, easy to use, and satisfies both performance and security requirements

10. The Need for Standards • A standard reference architecture is needed to define the software building blocks that will comprise larger integrated systems • Standard interfaces are needed to allow different vendor’s software to interoperate • Working with source code to retrofit existing interfaces is costly and time-consuming • Commercial vendors are reticent to provide source code or develop open source software • Industry standards could enable the development and interoperability of both open source and proprietary software • Vendors are unlikely to develop compatible software in the absence of industry standards • System requirements will help determine what standards are needed

11. Spatial (includes GIS) Building Structures Chronology Demographics Environment Hazard Effects Incident Event Infrastructure Systems Organizations Policies, Procedures, and Protocols Response Operations Response Resources Social Behaviors Others (general purpose) Standards Domain Categories

12. Some Standards for Spatial Data • Content Standard for Digital Geospatial Metadata (CSDGM) • Governmental Unit Boundary Exchange Standard • Hierarchical Data Format-Earth Observing System (HDF-EOS) • Shapefile for Geospatial Vector Data • Earth-Referenced Spatial Data Transfer Standard (SDTS) • Standard for a U.S. National Grid (USNG) • GeoTIFF • Keyhole Markup Language (KML) • OpenGIS Specifications • Vector Product Format (VPF)

13. Establishing Order in the HS MS&A World • A common taxonomy, or classification scheme, is needed to help categorize the existing and potential uses of MSA applications for homeland security. • The taxonomy would help organizations identify and communicate their MSA needs and existing applications in a manner that everyone can understand. • More importantly, the common understanding can be used to identify and prioritize missing MSA applications and standards that would help improve homeland security capabilities. • Needs analyses and requirements specification documents are needed to clearly define the functionalities and data interfaces for homeland security simulation modules

14. MSA Taxonomy Categories Major categories of a classification scheme for characterizing Modeling, Simulation and Analysis (MSA) applications • Objectives - Why was the MS&A application built? • Target Organizations and Mission Areas - Who was it designed to serve? • Simulation Context - What was built? • Implementation Characteristics - How was it implemented?

15. MSA Objectives Decision Support • Choice models • Information control techniques • Analysis and reasoning techniques • Representation aids • Human judgment amplifying and refining techniques Training and Performance Measurement • Recalling bodies of knowledge • Using verbal information • Rule learning and using • Decision making, detecting • Classifying • Identifying symbols • Voice communicating • Recalling procedures and positioning movement • Steering and guiding • Continuous movement • Performing gross motor skills Planning Levels and Domains • Levels - Strategic, operational, tactical • Domains -Products and services, financial and budgeting, facilities and equipment, organizational (structure, staffing, training, communications, and coordination), technology (trends, research and development), marketing (forecasting, media interactions, promotion), legal Intelligence and Risk Analysis Component Module Systems Engineering • Requirements definition • Program management • Design and engineering • Efficient test planning • Result prediction • Supplement to actual test and evaluation • Manufacturing • Logistics support

16. MSA Target Organizations & Mission Areas Type of Organizational Entity • Multinational bodies • Governmental agencies or departments • Military services • Private sector organizations Mission Key Words • Agriculture • Communications • Community services • Construction • Crisis management • Defense • Education and training • Emergency response • Energy • Entertainment • Environmental • Financial or economic • Food distribution and services • Justice or legal • Land management • Law enforcement • Manufacturing • Medical and healthcare • Mining and natural resources • Political • Public works • Religious • Research and development • Safety • Science, engineering, and technology • Seas and waterways • Security • Transportation • Utilities Level or Scope • International • National • State • Provincial • Tribal • Regional • County • City • Township • Village • Other lower level associations (precinct, school district or school, community, residential development Persistency of Time • Permanent • Temporary (limited, fixed duration, contract) • Ad-hoc or event-based

17. MSA Simulation Contexts Modeling Domains • Social Behavior - crowds, traffic, epidemics, and consumer behavior • Physical Phenomena - earthquakes, explosions, fires, chemical, biological or radiological plumes, disease and bio-agents, and biotic agents • Environment - atmospherics, climate, and weather, watershed systems, land contamination, indoor climate, and ecology • Economic - insurance liability exposure, infrastructure impact • Organization - fire departments, law enforcement, health care institutions, government agencies, military units, businesses, voluntary assistance, and terrorist organizations • Infrastructure Systems - food supply chain, energy distribution, water supply, transportation, computer and communications • Other System, Equipment, and Tools Emergency support functions • Transportation • Communications • Public works and engineering • Firefighting • Emergency management • Mass care, emergency assistance, housing and human services • Logistics management and resource support • Public health and medical services • Search and rescue • Oil and hazardous materials response • Agriculture and natural resources • Energy • Public safety and security • Long-term community recovery • External affairs Life cycle phases • Prevention • Preparedness • Response • Recovery • Mitigation Types of incidents, events, and activities • Terrorist attacks and other criminal activities • Natural disasters • Transportation incidents • Industrial and infrastructure incidents • Public events • Routine security operations

18. Representation techniques • Conceptual diagrams and models • Mathematical models • Dynamic models • Programming paradigms • Analysis techniques Data Sets • Incidents • Environment • Resources • Controlling documents • Geography and layout • Demographic and behavioral • Investigative intelligence • Training • Systems engineering • Simulation support Interaction modes • Live • Constructive • Virtual Human Interfaces • Systems engineering and support staff • Instructor and trainer • System administrators • Exercise management • On scene response • Response management • Support institution staff • Civilian population Planning Scenarios • Improvised nuclear device • Aerosol anthrax • Pandemic influenza • Plague • Blister agent • Toxic industrial chemicals • Nerve agent • Chlorine tank explosion • Major earthquake • Major hurricane • Radiological dispersal device • Improvised explosive device • Food contamination • Foreign animal disease • Cyber attack Standards • Architectures • General purpose integration interfaces • Domain-specific integration interfaces • Equipment specifications • Policies and operational guidelines • Document formats MSA Implementation Characteristics

19. Example Classification – Nuclear Plume Simulation Objectives • Planning, Training, Intelligence and risk analysis, Component module Target organization • Type of organizational entity - Governmental • Level or scope - Federal • Persistency over time - Permanent • Mission key words - Emergency response, Crisis management Simulation context • Modeling domains - Physical Phenomena • Types of incidents, events, and activities - Terrorist attack and other criminal activities • Emergency support functions - Emergency management, mass care, hazardous response • Life cycle phases - Preparedness, Response, Recovery Implementation characteristics • Representation techniques – Dynamic models (computational fluid dynamics) • Interaction modes - Virtual • Human interfaces - On Scene Response, Response Management • Data sets - Spatial, Environmental, Demographics and Behavioral p • Standards - Various Domain-Specific Integration Interfaces • Planning scenarios - Radiological Dispersion Device

20. A Systems Approach to Interoperable M&SSystems for Incident Management Training • Realistic role-playing • interfaces for: • first responders • incident management • support personnel • civilian population • opposing forces • live elements • Technically-correct simulations of: • physical phenomena • the environment • social behaviors • organizations • infrastructure systems Computing and Modular Standard Validated communications simulation information scenarios and infrastructure and gaming models, sample data reference databases, and sets architecture message formats Conformance testing procedures and systems Acknowledgment: The building fire screenshot has been adapted from Sim City 4 website.

21. Simulator Types and Applications • Social Behavior - pedestrians in crowds, attendees at a public event, vehicle operators in traffic, carriers and transmitters of communicable diseases in public places, and consumers in stores • Physical Phenomena - earthquakes; explosions; fires; chemical, biological or radiological plumes; spread of airborne or waterborne disease and bio-agents; and biotic agents • Environment - earth’s atmosphere; watersheds and landmasses; ecosystems; indoor areas; and other confined spaces within and around man-made structures • Economic - exposure of the insurance industry to different disaster scenarios or estimating the effects of an incident on a local economy, and the time and resources required to recover to normal levels • Organization - fire departments, law enforcement agencies, health care institutions, government agencies, military units, businesses, voluntary assistance, and terrorist cells • Infrastructure Systems - energy distribution systems, water supply, transportation networks, food supply chains, and communications networks • Other System, Equipment, and Tools - aircraft, ships and other watercraft, and vehicles; security scanners, sensors, and related systems; bomb disposal equipment; construction and fire fighting equipment; hazardous material decontamination and disposal systems; material handling systems; medical systems; personal protective equipment; search and rescue equipment; and various test equipment.

22. System Reference Architecture Concept Civilian Population Social Response Infrastructure Live Simulation Environmental and MMOG Behavior Management System Elements Federation Simulators Opposing Management Simulators Simulators Management Forces On Scene Support Physical Organizational Response Institutions Phenomena Simulators Simulators Federation MMOG Data Data Servers Servers Gaming Communications Integration Infrastructure Simulation Communications Integration Infrastructure

23. Gaming Subsystem Modules On Scene Support Live Civilian Elements Institutions Response Response Population and Opposing Forces Management Actors Fire Victims Hospitals Scenes and FEMA Police Props Manual Data General Public EMT Utility Police MMOG Interface Companies Management Civil Support Emulator Fire and Rescue Shelters Terrorists Devices HAZMAT Government Communi-cations System Public Agencies Transportation Media Rescue Military Video , Sound Command Others and Data Feeds Military Others Forces Others MMOG Others Data Others Servers Gaming Communications Integration Infrastructure

24. Simulation Subsystem Modules Infra-structure Organi-zational Simulators Social Behavior Simulators Physical Environ- mental Simulators System Phenomena Simulators Simulators Food Supply Fire Earthquake Crowd Weather Power Law Distribution Explosion Enforcement Traffic Simulation Watershed Federation Management Water Supply Fire Health Care Epidemic Indoor Climate Plume Government Transportation Agencies Consumer Ecology Disease and Military Communi-cations Bio - agents Others Others Biotic Invasion Terrorists Computers & Networks Federation Data Others Others Servers Others Simulation Communications Integration Infrastructure

25. MSER Data Model

26. Incident Setting • Event - Dirty bomb attack by terrorists • Timing - 4th of July fireworks event on Washington DC mall • Location - Outside Federal Triangle Metro Station

27. Timeline Public safety personnel deployed Long term treatment of victims Radiological plume spreading Treatment of victims at hospitals Crowd dispersing away Decontamination of buildings Emergency vehicles respond EMTs attend to victims Evacuation using metro rail Evacuation traffic jam Pre-planning for event RDD explosion July 4, 20XX evening Months Weeks Days Hours Minutes Hours Days Weeks Months Prevention/ Preparedness Response Recovery/ Mitigation

28. Concept Demonstration System Elements Emergency vehicle movements Explosion plume Response management Traffic flow and metro rail Decontamination and triage of victims Crowd behavior Hospital emergency department Information flows City maps with Availability Population density Incident hazard street details, of response information by and mitigation police, fire, resources time of day strategies hospital locations

29. Incident Management Strategy Gaming

30. Plume Simulation

31. Crowd Simulation

32. Incident Area Traffic Simulation

33. Emergency Vehicles Response Simulation

34. Triage Gaming

35. Hospital Emergency Dept Simulation

36. Databases

37. Needs Analysis Document Structure • Purpose • Functions • Create the model • Set the initial conditions • Execute the model • Interact with other simulations • Analyze the results • Data set requirements • Examples – prior implementations (32 referenced in SIW paper)

38. Needs Analysis – Social Behavior Purpose:To model the individual and collective behaviors, movements, and social interactions between people at various locations of interest that are engaging in normal day-to-day activities or responding to an incident. Functions: • Create the model- Provide development capabilities to create simulation models that predict pedestrian and crowd movements, traffic flow, spread of communicable diseases through social interactions, and consumer activity at stores and supply depots under various incident conditions. • Set the initial conditions - Establish the demographic attributes; locations of individuals, vehicles, and their status; environmental parameters; response resources; etc. • Execute the model - Update the mental perspectives, decisions, actions, location, and status of individuals and groups over time based upon their demographic characteristics, knowledge, behavioral models, incident data, and actions of first responders. • Interact with other simulations - Obtain input data from other simulations such as the effects of physical phenomena, changing environmental conditions, and organizational actions; provide output data on locations and actions of individuals to physical phenomenon, organization, economic, and infrastructure systems simulations. • Analyze the results - Determine number of casualties and/or injuries for different scenarios, resources required to deal with a scenario, time to evacuate an area, rate of spread of a disease, availability of goods in stores.

39. Needs Analysis – Physical Phenomena Purpose:To model the origin, propagation, and mitigation of various physical phenomena associated with emergency incidents. Functions: • Create the model- Provide capabilities to model how a physical phenomenon propagates; causes casualties or injuries to the populations; damages or affects the functioning of resources, buildings, and infrastructure systems. • Set the initial conditions - Establish the initial locations of population, pre-incident environmental conditions, locations of resources, etc. • Execute the model - Update the location of plumes, damage, casualties, etc. as the physical phenomenon propagates. • Interact with other simulations - Obtain changes in environmental data from the environmental simulator, changes in location of population and vehicles from social behavior simulators, etc. Provide hazard effects data for social behaviors, organization, infrastructure systems, and other system, equipment, and tool simulators. • Analyze the results - Determine the location, toxicity of hazards, extent of damage, effects of precautionary measures and mitigation strategies

40. Needs Analysis – Environment Purpose:To model the internal and external environments that may be impacted by the occurrence of an emergency incident, propagate incident effects, and/or serve as the focus for response operations. Functions: • Create the model- Provide development capabilities to define initial environmental conditions and determine how environmental conditions will evolve over time due to climate, weather phenomena, water movement over terrain, etc. • Set the initial conditions - Establish the state of the environment before the incident occurs, e.g., level of pollutants in air, land, and water; water levels in various bodies of water; status of ecosystems. • Execute the model - Update the movement of air indoors and outdoors, flow of water in watershed systems, temperatures, wind conditions, land contamination, status of ecosystems as a function of time and in response to an incident, where appropriate. • Interact with other simulations - Feed environmental data to drive the evolution of all other simulation models, e.g., physical phenomena – plume spread, social behavior – weather conditions, infrastructure systems – wind and water damage, organization – recovery needs; acquire outputs from other simulators such as results of mitigation actions from organization simulators. • Analyze the results - Determine the spread and extent of contaminants in land, water, and air; impact on ecosystems; and the effects of recovery operations of environmental conditions.

41. Needs Analysis – Economic Purpose:To model the economic impact of an incident or policy at various levels including local, regional and national, and over various time horizons. Functions: • Create the model- Provide mechanisms for implementing economic models using substance flow analysis, life cycle assessment, partial economic equilibrium analysis, macro and/or micro-economic analysis techniques. Provide sector specific models for understanding the impact of incidents and policy changes on relevant economic variables such as demand and supply of goods within the sector. • Set the initial conditions - Establish the initial state of societal, political, and economic factors. Set up the parameters that determine the initial impact and evolution of impact on the economic activity. • Execute the model - Update economic activities and measures as a function of time as incident unfolds, effects propagate, behavior of population is affected, and recovery operations occur. • Interact with other simulations - Acquire relevant inputs generated by other simulators such as the functioning of organizations, the status of facilities and other resources, and public morale levels following an incident. • Analyze the results - Determine economic impact in terms of damage to buildings, capital equipment, loss of wages, costs to restore facilities, and services and effectiveness of different policies, mitigation strategies, etc.

42. Needs Analysis – Organization Purpose:To model the policies and procedures; activities and operations; decision processes, communications and control mechanisms; and information flows for various organizations and their members. Functions: • Create the model- Provide capabilities to dynamically model an organization’s business operations; decision-making processes; communication channels and information flows; resource availabilities, allocation strategies, and consumption rates; time delays associated with its activities; etc. • Set the initial conditions - Identify readiness state of an organization, its initial resources, pre-incident status of infrastructure systems, environmental conditions, etc. • Execute the model - Update an organization’s actions, status, effects on areas of responsibility, remaining resources based on the incident characteristics and possible associated physical phenomena, changing environmental conditions, social behaviors, infrastructure damage, etc. • Interact with other simulations - Obtain social behaviors, physical phenomena, environmental, infrastructure systems data from associated simulators, e.g., damage, casualty, and injury data; provide output data on organizational actions that affect social behaviors, environment-related damage, economy, the state of infrastructure systems, the state of other systems, equipment, and tools, and the functioning of other organizational simulations. • Analyze the results - Determine the amount of resources used in response operations; time to restore facilities and services; effects on reduction of casualties, injuries, and damage based upon different operational strategies.

43. Needs Analysis – Infrastructure Systems Purpose:To model infrastructure systems, the impact of incidents on system elements, the propagation of incident effects on other interconnected, related, or nearby infrastructure elements, and the restoration of these systems after an incident. Functions: • Create the model- Define infrastructure systems, their functioning, their relationships to each other, and their vulnerabilities. • Set the initial conditions - Establish the initial condition of infrastructure systems before an incident occurs. • Execute the model - Update the status of infrastructure systems as incidents occur, environmental conditions change, and response operations attempt to restore functionality of those systems. • Interact with other simulations - Obtain social behavior, environment, and physical phenomenon impact data from associated simulators, repair operations from organizational simulators; provide loss of services data for economic and organization simulators, etc. • Analyze the results - Determine the impact on infrastructure systems of incidents, time to restore services, resources required, cost of repairs, identify vulnerabilities, etc.

44. Needs Analysis – Other Systems, Equipment, and Tools Purpose:To model the detailed operation and performance of various systems, equipment, and tools that are used in incident management, emergency response, and other homeland security related operations, or are affected by incidents and operations. Functions: • Create the model- Provide development capabilities for representing the structure and/or geometry of the system, equipment, or tool; define its component modules, and the functioning of those modules. Provide mechanisms for establishing its operational environment; functional characteristics; and the ways its functionality may be degraded or otherwise affected by an incident or the environment. • Set the initial conditions - Define the environmental, hazard and associated conditions with respect to the incident for which the system is to be used. • Execute the model - Update the mental perspectives, decisions, actions, location, and status of individuals and groups over time based upon their demographic characteristics, knowledge, behavioral models, incident data, and actions of first responders.. • Interact with other simulations - Obtain environmental and physical phenomena hazard data from associated simulations; provide the state of other systems, equipment, and tools for organization simulators. • Analyze the results - Determine the effectiveness of systems, equipment, and tools in incident response operations.

45. Data Sets Requirements • Incidents - summaries, chronologies, response operations, models, message logs, media files, reports, and after action reviews. • Environment - climate, weather, societal, political, economic, biosphere, chemical properties, hazard effects • Resources - organizations, funds, facilities, personnel, systems, vehicles, other equipment, communications channels, document media, and consumable supplies • Controlling documents - policies, plans, protocols, and procedures • Spatial - geographical areas, maps, building layouts, and models • Demographic and behavioral – population characteristics • Investigative intelligence – crime forensics, terrorist operations, etc. • Training - course syllabi, lesson plans, instructional materials, tests, exercises, and references • Systems engineering - requirements analyses; design specifications; system documentation; test plans, procedures, and data sets • Simulation support - software assets, statistical distributions, and programming scripts

46. For More Examples of Implementations Please see: Sanjay Jain and Charles McLean, “Components of An Incident Management Simulation and Gaming Framework and Related Developments,” SIMULATION, Volume 84 Number 1, Sage Publications, January 2008.

47. Conclusions • Homeland security community must deal with many different simulation domains and scenarios with multiple, interacting objectives • Simulation-based systems will need to integrate modules and data sources from different developers and user organizations • The proposed taxonomy is an initial step towards addressing this challenge, i.e., classification of homeland security simulations • The needs analysis is a first attempt to identify the purpose, functions, and data requirements for major classes of homeland security simulations • Coordinated standards efforts will be needed to fill the gaps and achieve the vision of interoperable simulation-based systems